True carbon fiber, or fiber reinforced polymer is very strong- and for most real world situations, more durable than aluminum-- look at NASCAR, F1, bicycles, and jet planes. The transition will be consumer and market driven, not true functional issues. It is not currently accepted by the AR crowd- nor would a polymer 1911-- too much traditionalist skepticism to overcome.
I'm going to disagree that aluminum is less durable.
Firstly, I'd be surprised if a carbon fiber mag well would hold up to repeated reloads with aluminum mags. Carbon fiber simply doesn't have good abrasion resistance. Look at the front of a CF handguard on a 3 gunner's rifle. It's chewed up.
Also, I know nothing of aviation, but I do know a little about racing. There's a reason why most race cars use CF on quickly-replaceable parts, but not the chassis. You can get more
rigidity for the weight, and for things like dive planes, a splitter/diffuser, a hood, a fender flare, a wing, wheels, etc., that is what matters. But those parts don't flex much. You shunt a tire wall with them, they're done, for the most part. The chassis, on the other hand, is aluminum, and even until recently, was steel.
Now, F1 cars, and even many LMP cars, to my understanding, do use carbon fiber monocoques in place of an actual chassis, with an aluminum mesh core or some other aluminum integration. And even then, yes, it's carbon fiber, but then we get to the real meat of the reason why comparing carbon fiber use in cars, planes, and just about everything else, doesn't translate to carbon fiber use on firearms.... And that is, the forces in a race track collision are transmitted to the monocoque differently than the forces of dropping your rifle on the buttstock... Those monocoques are surrounded by front and side impact protection (typically carbon fiber as well) that absorbs energy essentially disintegrate. There are also the wheels, engine, and general body work that also absorbs impact energy, as the monocoque is so low to be surrounded by all that. And further, any other car you hit has the same safety equipment, and most race tracks themselves have means of slowing a car down, and slowly dissipating the energy transfer from the wall to the car (tires, barriers, etc.).
So, the point of all that is to say that, where carbon fiber is currently utilized, it is largely in either a protected or disposable capacity. You don't have anything to give and protect the lower when the receiver extension gets run over, or dropped, or otherwise imparts force onto the receiver itself. And you don't have anything to buffer it from the actual abrasiveness of firearms usage.
I'm sure you
could engineer an aluminum chassis with a CF surround that has protected edges, but I have to ask, what's the point? Aluminum is cheap enough, it's light enough, and it's strong enough... Tremendous weight savings can be made in the machine work of the lower, and just about everywhere else. I've seen the TN Arms lowers, they're smart designs. And I agree with you that there could be a case for alternative materials if the entire lower design is changed to suit that material, but like I said... I still question why.