Worst GDP contraction ever

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by thespork, Jul 30, 2020.

  1. thespork

    thespork

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  2. nerr

    nerr

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    Far from over. If new $1tb 'stimulus' gets passed, we will have increased the national debt by 20% in a few months. Locking down for covid had a big price tag, just in money, not to mention other medical, social fallout. We may well be damned if we do and damned if we don't. I lean toward at least going down fighting instead of cowering at home, but I can afford to self-quarantine better than others, at least for now. Hope new vaccine will give us some breathing room, though that will not show up for a few months at best, with its own risks.

    Kind of makes you wish we were allowed to pray publicly (thank you Mr. President for advocating that).
     

  3. Fatboy2001

    Fatboy2001

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    Key phrase: "Q2 GDP annualized, quarter over quarter..."
    It did not fall ~32%!!!!
    It ain't good, but it is not 32%. :cheers:
     
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  4. ked

    ked

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    More manipulating statistics !

    ie: more lies from the media!
     
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  5. FullClip

    FullClip Native Mainiac CLM

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    Worst GDP contraction so far


    There....fixed it for ya. Wait and see what happens if Biden wins in November.
     
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  6. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    End the lockdowns.

    Suck it up. Stop praying for a magical vaccine and accept the reality that CoVid-19 is here to stay.

    Everyone is going to get it eventually. You’re not going to eradicate it any more than you eradicate the flu or the common cold.
     
  7. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    [​IMG]

    I've been saying this for months. But it's not what people are prepared to deal with mentally and emotionally.
     
  8. thespork

    thespork

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    True.... I stand corrected, 32% annuallized.
    Meaning if we continued on at this clip for a year it would be the equivalent of a 32% decline...

    we will get some q3 and q4 bounce back and the actual annual number will not be so bad..

    It's still a horror show though.. worst quarter since they started measuring (at the end of WW2)
     
    Last edited: Jul 30, 2020
  9. Fatboy2001

    Fatboy2001

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    No it ain't good! Bureau of Econ. Analysis will have the actual number(s) in Aug. If anybody wants to look at a real disaster search for world-wide travel data. I'm betting we'll have to bail-out U.S. airlines. Again, I agree it is (and will continue to be) a horror show. Many mistakes by "experts".
     
  10. nursetim

    nursetim

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    First with the worst. Cackling with glee I imagine. :upeyes:
     
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  11. nutsnax

    nutsnax

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    The world economy is built on a mountain of bullsh!t

    the idea that when it rains there is a sh!t-slide shouldn't be that surprising in an economy built on such a sh!tty foundation.
     
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  12. rlewpolar

    rlewpolar

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    If you open it up full throttle, the virus runs rampant and uncontrolled (many more times the cases and deaths that we have now). You not only bring down the US medical system, but you bring down the economy as well eventually anyway (sick workers, scared shoppers).

    Controlled burn, this is the only way forward. Which means a total lockdown for several weeks to several months and slow reopening based on declining cases. It’s what we should have done the first time around (we got the first part right but blew it on the slow reopening). Those advocating for opening it up full throttle right now are falling into the same trap. There is going to be an enormous amount of pain if we lockdown again. But smaller than what’s coming if we don’t. Guaranteed.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro
     
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  13. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    The virus is running rampant now. Masks do nothing, or at best slow it slightly.

    We are going to have the sickness and deaths we're going to have. That is not negotiable, it's going to happen. Whether we drag that out over a longer period is the decision.

    There can be no such thing as a "total lock-down", that's not going to happen, and it flies in the face of human nature. A "total lock-down" could be attempted, and all it would do is put the virus on hold. As soon as things go back to normal, so will the virus.

    It has to burn through, there is no other answer. Sweden is the example to look at.
     
  14. rlewpolar

    rlewpolar

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    Exactly, dragging it out or letting it come all at once is the real issue.

    Dragging it out is the only way forward. Ok, total lockdowns is a misnomer. What I mean is what we had back in March and April. When things have flattened (we’ve already shown it can be done, mostly by social distancing ), reopen slowly when you see consecutive days of falling cases in certain geographic areas). It’s going to suck...big time. But it’s the only way. If we keep going like we are doing now, mostly unchecked infections with rising cases in most states with no end in sight, it’s Armeggedon time in a few months (on both the health and economic fronts).
     
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  15. Pluto57

    Pluto57

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    Yep. Doesn't make as good a headline, tho.
     
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  16. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    I'd say just let it burn through. In the long run the damage to our economy will be far, far worse if we don't.

    Just look at Sweden......they've done it right.
     
  17. rlewpolar

    rlewpolar

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    I fundamentally disagree with you on Sweden. As do most people who look at the data. Here’s a good read, spells it out clearly. Sweden was very informative because it showed exactly what would happen if you just do mostly nothing. And keep in mind, most Swedes were much better at self-policing their behavior than US citizens in general. If you apply the Sweden model to the US, it would be even worse.


    https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nytimes.com/2020/07/07/business/sweden-economy-coronavirus.amp.html


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  18. Pluto57

    Pluto57

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    Nope. The lockdown comes with its own set of problems. You may save a few more people from dying from COVID, but you'll still lose lots of people from other things that would have been prevented without the lockdown. You could lockdown for years and COVID will still be here when the lockdown is lifted because all those "essential" businesses are still going to be running and folks will still be getting infected.

    Keeping folks locked down will create an economic Armageddon that the country will never recover from. We're not too far from that now.
     
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  19. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    Please don't share a NY Times article on Sweden. It's like sharing a Democratic Underground thread on gun control, as proof it works. Just a little biased.

    Look at Sweden's raw data. They're having days with 0 new infections, and 0 new deaths. They've had their run with it, for the most part, and are close to being done with it.

    If we applied the Sweden model, we'd also be virtually done with it.
     
  20. Borg Warner

    Borg Warner

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