winning at roulette wheel: whats wrong with my logic

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by vr4 case, Mar 17, 2010.

  1. vr4 case

    vr4 case

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    I have never played roulette, and am not looking to become a millionaire beating the casino (as i know "the house" always win), i just have a math oriented mind and have been thinking that logically speaking (unless there is a part of the game i dont know) you can ALMOST guarantee to win at roulette, so please tell me if there is a flaw in my math/logic.

    I know there are a lot of ways to bet ie: individual numbers, thirds, halfs etc. And I also know there is a, i believe, white or 00 block. But if we ignore that one slot for a moment and just look at betting on either red or black.

    Lets start with the example of betting $10 on black, if you win, then you win, good job. If you lose (here is my plan) then you double your bet on the same color, so now you would be betting $20 on black. If you win, then you are now up $10 (lost the first $10, and then won $20), if you lose then you just double your bet again, and as long as you can afford to keep doubling then EVENTUALLY based on probability you should hit your black slot.

    So besides the fact that for this to work perfectly you need a 50-50 chance of red or black and the white/00 slot messes that up slightly, what is wrong with my thinking? again, not looking to beat the house, just an idea i have always had
     
  2. The_Hunter

    The_Hunter

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    Nothing wrong with your logic other then you took out the 0 and 00 those two spots give the house the edge. That being said I paid taxes this year due to my time spent at the tables last year. :)
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2010

  3. Ol Timer

    Ol Timer ↓ hog hunter ↓ Millennium Member

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    What you are referring to is nothing new. It is the Martingale system and the casinos have a failsafe for it, the lower and upper limits of the table.

    Roulette is the worst bet in an American casino. With the 0 and 00, the house edge is close to 5%.
     
  4. chuckman

    chuckman

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    The problem with your logic is that you may not 'eventually' hit. Given the number of red spaces and number of black spaces (minus that white space) are equal, every spin is 50/50, and will always be 50/50 no matter how often you spin. You cook spin a million times and have the same colored space. The next one, a different color.
     
  5. The_Hunter

    The_Hunter

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    Just for grins I played 20ish spins on the GT wheel and ended up even with no hits on the 0
     
  6. Steve0853

    Steve0853

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    The problem with that logic is that if you are wanting to gamble, you are not going to be happy with one win.

    If you bet $10 on the first spin and win, are you going to quit and go home? No.....you are gonna keep spinning till that $10 goes away.......and a lot more $10's with it.
     
  7. Adjuster

    Adjuster

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    Yep roulette is your worst odds at the casino. Also a lot of casinos have rules that you can not bet red/black unless you have chips on a number as well. And as stated above it is possible for you to land on red hundreds of times in a row. You better be very rich to begin with if you are going to keep doubling your loosing bets.
     
  8. malleable

    malleable

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    The problem is that the table will have a limit on how much you can wager, so even if you had unlimited funds you could no longer double up once you've reached that limit.
    On a side note did you know if you add up all the numbers on roulette you get 666.
     
  9. Ol Timer

    Ol Timer ↓ hog hunter ↓ Millennium Member

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    Although hundreds of consecutive color bets are possible, the Martingale will bust after 8. Then you are no longer down your original $5 wager, you're down your $5 wager plus the table limit of $500 and still short $140 if you hit.
     
  10. Guessinator

    Guessinator

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    I saw black come up 12 times in a row once in Vegas. People were coming up and throwing $100 bills on red. It was insane.
     
  11. ocjackel

    ocjackel

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    You can still find an occasional single zero roulette wheel in Vegas. They do tend to be higher limit wheels though. Even with a single zero wheel the house still has a better that 2% advantage. And as others have said there will be a max bet limit.

    If there were no max bet limit it would be better to play blackjack using basic strategy. This would get the house advantage down to around 1%.

    Craps would also be better. Playing just the pass line and taking full odds gets the house advantage under 1%.
     
  12. Geko45

    Geko45 Smartass Pilot CLM

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    I would have thrown a hundred on black just to prove a point.
     
  13. BobbyT

    BobbyT

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    As people have mentioned, the extra 0/00 make your odds slightly negative, which is all the house needs.

    But even if it weren't there, and you had 50/50 odds, your strategy still wouldn't be a winner, just a way to shift your wins and losses around.

    Think of betting on a coin flip as you described. You have a 50/50 chance of winning say 10 bucks. If you lose, you now have a 50/50 chance of winning the same 10, or losing 20. Then 50/50 chance of winning 10, or losing 40...

    So depending on what your purse size is (or, if you're a trader, your margin), you're just replacing a system where you win X 50% of the time and lose X 50% of the time with one where you win X 90% of the time and lose 10X 10% of the time.

    Each time you double down you're risking twice as much for the same original winner, so you'll eventually bust. But in the meantime it feels good to take a bunch of small winners and have a high batting average before the inevitable blowout.

    You could also do the opposite--double down every time you win, reset if you lose. So then you'd take a ton of small losses, but have the occasional huge win to cancel them out. That's how a lottery with even odds would work--you and 9 friends all put $10 in, and one person's name is drawn. On average you'd have 9 $10 losses, and 1 $90 win (of course, a real lottery doesn't have anywhere close to even odds).
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2010
  14. Ol Timer

    Ol Timer ↓ hog hunter ↓ Millennium Member

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    This is a popular strategy on the craps table using place bets. Your place bet number comes up once and you've won your original wager plus house odds. $7/$6, $7/$5 or $9/$5. Your place bet number comes up again and you press, or double the original bet and collect the odds. Your place bet comes up again and you press again or increase your bet the amount of the original bet and collect the odds. Your bet is now 3x and you've won your original wager back plus house odds on each subsequent win.

    Of course it would be nice if that pesky #7 didn't show up so often. :embarassed:
     
  15. thatoneguy92088

    thatoneguy92088

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  16. cgwahl

    cgwahl Sheriffs a near

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    You're thinking of the Martingale system. It's flawed for a few reasons. A) You can eventually run out of money or sources of money (need to have unlimited funds basically), and most importantly, B) Casinos usually put a max bet on certain games.

    Many people have tried it and usually get burned.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2010
  17. ronin_the_great

    ronin_the_great

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    This.
    Plus, as an added bonus, on the come out roll, it's the only time you will ever have better odds than the house.

    Roulette is a sucker bet. Damn near anything else in the casino will give you better odds.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2010
  18. KIMFAB

    KIMFAB Kangaroo tooth

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    I live 50 miles from Vegas and go there about twice a week.
    I used to play roulette often because if you bet properly you can lose your money slowly enough to play for a while.
    That said I was once playing and red came up 27 times in a row. People were coming by and dropping $100 bills on the table and walking away losing.

    Do the math, doubling your bet 27 times is quite a nice number.
    Remember, all those fancy casinos are built with money from people with a foolproof system.

    Stick with craps or blackjack.
    Poker is good also, the house usually just takes a rake of the pot and you are playing the other players, not the house.
     
    Last edited: Mar 17, 2010
  19. GreenDrake

    GreenDrake Rip Lips

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    I played four square (intersection on four numbers in roulette) on the cruise ship, parlayed it to good money and hit 00 twice, which is staistically impossible in a short time frame....had a great night that night....then I gave it all back the next night.
     
  20. RioKid

    RioKid

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    I have been told that the best way to win at roulette is don't play it.:supergrin: