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Will anybody be making new ICE vehicles in Ten years?

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by Vic777, Aug 8, 2017.

  1. Vic777

    Vic777

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    I don't think any manufacturer will be making new ICE passenger vehicles or light trucks in Ten years. Will gas stations disappear? What will happen to the price of gas? will your used vehicle be worth anything?
     
  2. NAZG26

    NAZG26 Lost in transit

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    I'll buy gas smuggled from Mexico from my weed dealer
     

  3. biggen

    biggen

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    Is there something for sale here?
     
  4. Bruce M

    Bruce M

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    I think ten years is a bit optimistic considering current battery capacity and past battery capacity growth for the last decade or so. We also need to remember there are a fair number of heavy long distance trucks on the road that need to travel ~700 miles a day. But I do think that in the next couple decades a car that is not automatically driven and is not electric will be rare or probably prohibited in urban and suburban areas.
     
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  5. huskerbuttons

    huskerbuttons

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  6. jmohme

    jmohme

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    Not likely that gasoline powered vehicles will cease to be.
    I won't say that it wont happen, but I think it is highly unlikely.
    The automobile as it exists today is too much a part of America to just fade away in a few years.

    Besides that, there will come a time when the truth about electric and hybrid cars will be known and lose some of their appeal.
     
  7. ithaca_deerslayer

    ithaca_deerslayer

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    I'm pretty sure that Ford, Chevy, the Japanese, and the Germans will still all be trying to catch up with the Charger/Challenger in 10 years :)
     
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  8. M&P15T

    M&P15T Beard One

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    The almighty dollar says the auto-market will largely be the same in 10 years.

    You do know Tesla isn't a profitable company, right? They're hemorrhaging cash like drunken sailor on shore leave.

    The us electrical grid cannot handle much more electric cars usage. There's no such thing and cold-fusion yet.
     
  9. as400guy1

    as400guy1

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    Plus the environmental damage caused by the battery manufacturing.....
     
  10. janice6

    janice6 Silver Member

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    Instead of simply looking at operating emissions, it would be more reasonable to look at overall impact on the environment from production through end of life. If that is considered, the existing method of propulsion doesn't seem too bad. The end of the internal combustion engine will be due to the cost of energy to supply it, not from its inefficiency.

    However, as long as politicians and millionaires dictate our transportation policy, the only changes made will ensure that those same people will make even more money from the public.

    As soon as a truly low cost, low polluting, long range, safe form energy is created, money will be made and things will change. This will be an entirely new concept and is not here yet. The present mandates won't improve the environment, just increase the cost of transportation.

    Remember, the expertise predicting the future of the ICE and transportation in general, also made this prediction 50 years ago:

    "......Men such as IBM Economist Joseph Froomkin feel that automation will eventually bring about a 20-hour work week, perhaps within a century, thus creating a mass leisure class. Some of the more radical prophets foresee the time when as little as 2% of the work force will be employed, warn that the whole concept of people as producers of goods and services will become obsolete as automation advances......."

    http://time.com/3754781/1965-predictions-computers/
     
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  11. JohnBT

    JohnBT NRA Benefactor

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    In 10 years I doubt they'll have an electric vehicle that will seat 6 or 7, pull a boat or large camper, and go more than 300 miles in a day and recharge in, say, 6 hours while the travelers catch a nap. And do it all for less than $75,000.

    A little car for 3 or 4 adults that will go for 7 or 8 hours at 70 mph or 75? We'll see.

    This is a big country and not everyone lives in an urban area where they're close to everything.

    Anybody got a pic of a lithium mine? :)
     
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  12. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

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  13. robbcayman

    robbcayman

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    I could see in 25 years most everything will be electric. I could see many cars being electric in 10 years.

    An industry as large as the auto industry won't change rapidly. It takes time. The batteries have to go further and last much longer for ownership.
     
  14. Ross-in-Pa

    Ross-in-Pa Western Pa

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  15. The_Dan

    The_Dan The underscore is silent

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    Last year around 16 million new cars and light trucks were sold and just under 40 million used sold from dealers... electric vehicles have never been more than 1% of them.

    Ten years is 5 minutes in the automotive manufacturing industry. I humbly predict that in ten years electric (OK...anything but "ICE" vehicles) will be less than 5%. Electric cars also suffer from an Achilles heel of crappy battery technology. Limited range, huge expense, exotic materials, and PR problems like spontaneous combustion (Fisker) and child labor used in international Cobalt mines. It requires a quantum leap in battery technology to make electric cars work in any big percentage of total vehicles on the road. Hydrogen might be an alternative but there have been limitations and essentially no infrastructure to, I don't know...fill your tank.

    Tesla makes neat cars... I assume you just rode in one and are all smitten and think they are the future. The issue with Tesla is that, like every other electric car made, they do not make a profit. Without a giant leap in battery tech and making a 10x increase in production...they will continue to not be profitable.
     
  16. droidfire

    droidfire

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    I would hope ICE gets their own vehicles, but if not hopefully they just commandeer local police vehicles.
     
  17. vram74

    vram74

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    I see this as well. Kinda sad driving will become a lost skill. How soulless your travels will become. Not having to deal with traffic jams, drunks etc makes it worth it I suppose.

    How will municipalities deal with the lost ticket revenue?
     
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  18. banger

    banger

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    I am aware of the article which predicts the demise of the Internal Combustion Engine....

    I am also aware that in 1960 it was predicted that by the 1990's, we would all be operating "flying cars".

    You can see where that prediction went..... lol

    I really don't think I would "bet the ranch" on this one.
     
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  19. GamerGirl

    GamerGirl 100% Relevant

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    That prediction was made about 100 years from then which is 50 years from now. And it's sounding surprisingly prescient.
     
  20. Schrag4

    Schrag4

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    OP, they've been saying ICE vehicles will be gone "in 10 years" for a while now. Unless you know about something that isn't widely known about, I really doubt your claim. And don't say Tesla. That junk might work for commuting in a densely populated area, but it won't work for all Americans, not even close. And it's way overpriced for what it offers. And we're all paying for it through our taxes - govt subsidies :steamed:. It's literally taking money from (everyone, including) the poor to help pay for cars that only the rich can afford.
     
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