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RIP Stan Lee.. . .
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Why does everyone assume that in the event of a major nation wide, or even region wide SHTF incident, that zillions of people will come flooding out of the cities, looking for food?

I’ve read several scenarios, but let me postulate a couple other possibilities.

1) City is devastated so badly that no-one can evacuate or flee. For example, a nuke explodes over the city. Perhaps more realistically, a huge earthquake levels the city. Even on foot it could take people days to get out of the city and the city-like suburbs before reaching the rural areas. Many of the injured, the weak and famished will never make it out.

2) The less traumatic disaster such as a nation wide power grid failure or EMP. Most people will hit the stores and clean out the shelves in a few hours. After that they will sit in their home waiting for thing to get “fixed”. After days without any fix, for most of them, the food/water will be running out. But the guy on transistor radio will keep telling them not to panic, and all will be well soon. By time they realize it is a lie, most will be weak from no food and especially no water. In that condition, they won’t make it far even if they could walk.

For those who try to drive out, the roads will be jammed.

Additionally a sub-set of the population will be trying to take what other might have, using force and violence. People caught out on the street could be ambushed and killed.

3) Pandemic. . (A real one, not a fake one).
People will stock up on food and follow the “Shelter in your home” orders from the government. After all, going outside means you could get exposed to the virus. Initially the police or military will enforce the restrictions, but they will likely soon disappear as they realize that they want to be with their families. Again, people are running out of food and water. If they go outside they might get sick and die. . . If they stay at home, maybe the government will come and save them (insert laugh track here).

Eventually, again they will be too weak to make it very far.

4) Major civil disorder. Rioters and looting everywhere (Just like a normal weekend in Portland)
In this situation people will be literally taking their lives in their hands if try to escape the cities. Eventually many will try since in theory, gas is still available for their cars. But again, how far will they be able to make it via automobile.
 

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:rolleyes: Well, let's say that a large segment of the urban population does decide to stay put. If this happens then everyone who elects to stay put and 'shelter in place' is going to be eating other like-minded people. Why? Because there ain't going to be any other viable source of raw protein available; and rats, cats, and pigeons are all tough to catch, and too small to rely upon as a stable food source. (Not to mention being communicable disease vectors, as well.) :eek:
 

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People will leave. Having lived in LA and SF, if there were a major catastrophe, I would stay only as long as it would take me to determine what a viable evacuation route would be. Granted, many people would try to stick it out, but when they see food is running out, social and emergency service are gone, and there is widespread looting, many who can leave will chose to leave within days. In the past, they have stayed for regional disasters because they knew help was coming as in the LA quakes and the SF quake, On the plus side, SF has a low ratio of cars so it would take them awhile to get out of town, especially since there are multiple bridges which may or may not be usable. LA is a little more mobile with a higher ratio of cars and there are several routes out. Walking out depending on the time of year might not be feasible.due to the geography.. .
 

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G21.4Me : I do not think that will ever come to pass. The Donner wagon train was years ago.
OK, but wait until you are hungry enough to eat anything. Then let's see what happens! ;)
 

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I have never assumed the cities will empty. I am dead sure that the predators who loot the cities every day will move to the suburbs and the country as they use up the lootable resources in the cities.
 

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if you check what is now happening in Cali, bad guys are following suburban dwellers out of the city to rob.

why did the mongols leave the steppes? why did the vikings leave nordland? when all the CVS are closed in the cities, the baddies are going to branch out.

forget the movies, read history books. as the saying goes, history repeats itself.
 
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