what are the chances ?

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by zukyota, Oct 18, 2015.

  1. zukyota

    zukyota

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    This thread probably belongs in the political forum but this forum covers a large variety of discussion so I will try here. The question is, what are the realistic chances of gun confiscation in the US ? I know no one has a crystal ball but I still think of this question every time I see someone post about a new firearm purchase. It makes me wonder if people are throwing money away with each purchase. Would the feds come door to door and confiscate based off the paperwork at gun stores ? Would local governments enforce ? Would all heck break out ? I know something needs to be done about all the mass shootings but also know that they could very well increase if criminals, mentally unstable loners and terrorist organizations, just to name a few, know that everyone is unarmed and not able to fight back. I'm also a true believer that if someone wants to kill, not having access to a firearm will not stop them. People need to take this threat as a real threat. I don't think it's too far fetched. Any thoughts ?
     
  2. D-Ric902

    D-Ric902

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    Slim to none
    Just a political position to campaign on, they may play with the edges but nothing like a confiscation.
     

  3. John Galt

    John Galt Anti-Federalist

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    There isn't enough manpower to go door to door and confiscate over 300 million firearms.
     
  4. Deltic

    Deltic

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    There would have to be a major shift in public opinion. That kind of shift can take decades but they do happen. If it is going to happen I would say it is twenty or more years away. I might be dead by then but most of you reading this would still be here and you would be old.
     
  5. Bruce M

    Bruce M

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    I think the chances are slightly worse than chemtrails and slightly better than the interstate tunnel system between the closed Walmarts. And we need to have a secret GT handshake so we can recognize each other at the FEMA relocation camps.
     
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  6. Dr. Leaky

    Dr. Leaky Know-It-All

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    Not likely, but not really necessary either. I think the "chink in the armor" is ammo (and components). Either by restricting its sale or by taxation they can turn a whole lot of weapons into paperweights. "Buy backs" of useless guns would thin the ranks considerably.
     
  7. zukyota

    zukyota

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    Make jokes if it makes you feel better. The fact is, we have a lot of misinformed idiots who actually believe that taking guns away from law abiding Americans will solve issues. Couple that with the morons that vote for people like Obama and we could have a serious issue.
     
  8. Baba Louie

    Baba Louie

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    Martial Law in a declared emergency might be one methodology as we saw in Katrina NOLA a decade back.

    Couple that with the method the Brits used back in the day, anyone leaving Boston (under siege) had to forfeit any weapons and were then turned back into the town IIRC... so anyone traveling on a Federal Interstate could be "Checkpointed" at choke positions outside of major cities and left impotent in regard self defense device.

    Easier by far to limit ammo sales in one fashion or another since we all know the ACA is/was a "Tax" bill passed into law and approved as such by SCOTUS, tax it tax it tax it (ammo) out of existence.

    Either action would of course bring consequences, either/both intended and unintended. Law abiding types would be law abiding, criminal types remaining criminal, strong always preying on weak. SCOTUS agreeing if done by the rules the govt follows when it suits their needs.

    Could it happen?

    Sure, given the right "trigger" events and a media fueled political climate. But it would take a police state and of course whoever is doing the policing will need guns to ensure their own safety from maddened mobs. From Nov 22 1963 to passing of the '68 GCA, less than 5 years. From the time FDR was elected Nov 1932 to passing of the '34 NFA, 2 years time frame. Possession of Gold was also outlawed at that time IIRC.

    Let us work to avoid all that crap, eh?

    We also know the consequences of any prohibition. I do believe it is against the law to import drugs into the country and/or to transact or use some of them. So it is, a black market will/would appear (it's already in place I would guess since criminals procure weapons in one fashion or another) and some will get rich doing so; think Leland Yee(D) et al of CA fame and fortune... (bastard).

    And then of course, archery tackle, blades or bats or tire irons or candlesticks, bottles, gasoline, ... well, you get the picture. Shall Not Be Infringed = reasonable restrictions apply donchaknow?
     
  9. Bruce M

    Bruce M

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    Out of curiosity from your point of view what has the trend been as far as concealed carrying rights over the last couple decades? Any significant court cases regarding firearms ownership in the last decade or two?
     
  10. M2 Carbine

    M2 Carbine

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    If you mean the Feds going door to door, that won't happen.
    What they would do is order everyone to turn in their guns or face, like ten years in jail and other punishments.

    Then, many/most of the blow hard ,"from my cold dead hands" people will line up to turn in their guns. The major excuse they will give is,
    "I have a family, I'm not going to jail and face large fines just so I can own a gun".
    You will hear this excuse from time to time on the internet. I've heard it on GT.

    Find a copy of "The Turner Diaries" and you can see how it might be done.

    A lot of people will try to hide their guns. Many/most of them will also give up their guns if found out and pressured by the Feds.

    The feds have a very large "Army". Almost every federal agency has their own fully armed troops. Most of these agencies have no reason for having large "Swat Teams".

    The wild card is our Military.
    (This is one reason obama has fired many high ranking officers that might oppose him).
    Will our soldiers fire on us if ordered to, or will they stand down or actively back their fellow citizens and their own families? Who knows for sure.
    I'm sure not all of Hitler's soldiers were bad guys but they murdered millions of innocent people.

    Many ex military have said our guns may be pointed but they won't be pointed at our own people.

    Are the chances of gun confiscation "realistic" ?
    Years back I would have said the chances of the American citizens voting in something like obama for President had the same chances as me flying to Mars in a hot air baloon.

    One thing for sure, it would be interesting.
     
    Last edited: Oct 18, 2015
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  11. plp

    plp

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    Good summary. I've studied enough history to know how it works out, once they start requiring weapons be surrendered. As you have said, 75% of law abiding citizens will do it immediately, maybe holding back a shotgun or two, but for the most part will hand them in rather than break the law.

    They will then turn in the other 25%. Some will resist, and be made an example of, most won't after the first batch are lined up and shot.

    It will never be the coordinated, armed resistance against the government so many fantasize about, not when the face of the government is better armed, better trained, and better informed.
     
  12. M2 Carbine

    M2 Carbine

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    You want the best chance of the government never coming for your guns, or continuing to pass repressive gun laws?

    It's very simple.

    There are about 4 million NRA members. Even with this relatively small number the politicians pay some amount of attention to the NRA every election.

    There are at least 300 million gun owners in the US.
    If even a third of these people would do nothing but join the NRA, a voting block of over 100 million gun owners would scare the living hell out of the politicians. Politicians would never even say "gun control" much less try and push any anti gun legislation.

    But sadly our biggest enemy is not the anti gun politicians or antigun liberals. Our biggest enemy is us.
     
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  13. refugeepj

    refugeepj

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    never say never. the anti crowd is agenda driven and will never be swayed by fact and common sense. they remind me of the "terminator" concept. something that can't be reasoned with, feels no pain and can not be stopped. they just keep coming and coming and coming. we must be just as relentless in our desire to not give one inch, not one point. my common sense gun control is very simple. the SECOND AMENDMENT!
     
  14. Rizzo

    Rizzo Garbage Day!

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    I joined the NRA last year just for this reason. I only wish they'd ease off the resubscription pressure; I got a resubscribe letter before I even got my first copy of American Rifleman.

    I'm thinking of sending them a letter saying "Yes, thank you, I know perfectly well how to resubscribe, but I would actually prefer it if you would save your money on paper and mailing and put it towards focusing on our rights."
     
  15. M2 Carbine

    M2 Carbine

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    I understand. I hate telemarketers and junk mail, no matter who it comes from.

    Give them a call, may even take a couple times, and tell them you don't want to be bothered.

    I've been a NRA member since 1960. No one has been more pissed at the NRA, at times, than me but the fact is, if not for the NRA (members) the past many years, we would be lucky to be able to own a 22 single shot today.
     
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  16. plp

    plp

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    Good point, joined a few years back for the simple reason I decided it was time to stand up and be counted.

    The biggest problem is the massive propaganda campaign by the left. They want us to believe if the NRA is successful in their efforts, it will be the Wild West, when the reality is everywhere liberal policies on gun control are successful, there is anarchy and no rule of law for the average citizen.
     
  17. M2 Carbine

    M2 Carbine

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    Yes, that lie is a big tool in their box of lies.

    I remember when we were trying to get concealed carry in Texas.
    OH God, there would be blood running in the streets. The same lie the anti gunners use everywhere,
    Of course that never happens but it doesn't stop the deceitful anti gun people from trying it over and over.

    In January it will be the Wild West again when we go open carry. :)
     
  18. Radius_Retention_Systems

    Radius_Retention_Systems RADIUS RETENTION SYSTEMS

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    I don't think they would have to go door to door even if it were feasible, remember the ban in CA, pretty much everyone ponied them up for fear of the criminal consequences, even the cold dead hands crowd, was pretty sad to see.
     
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