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This new coronavirus epidemic is starting to heat up

  1. I don't wanna' get that corona virus....so I'll stick with my Bud.
  2. I've dealt with coronavirus in cats. Mortality rate is fairly low unless it mutates into FIP (peritonitis). Then the death rate is very high.
  3. Paging Westexas... Westexas to a white courtesy keyboard, please
  4. Anyone remember the swine flu?
  5. I certainly do, my ex wife died from that in ‘09. Terrible way to die at the age of 41.
  6. We used to call it the brown bottle flu.
  7. China-just sharing the love...

    I think that it wont be wars or turmoil that brings down civilization but some damn bug.
  8. i was in boot camp in 1976 when there was an outbreak of swine flu. Normally when we got our medical shots we just lined up as a company and marched down the line. For the flu shot we were broken into several groups. Some of those guys in different groups got wicked sick and had to be taken out of the company. I just had a sore arm for a couple days.
    I always wondered if we were being used as guinea pigs.
  9. One Bird flu was the epidemic once upon a time.
  10. I had lunch at a rural eating place. Two ladies came over. For 20 minutes I hadn’t even invited them to sit. (It was just so unexpected) I still don’t know why they came over..
    After bunch of stuff they started about China, the flu... I mentioned pandemic. The staff darn near kicked us out.

    Then it gets funny. I went to bank in a town @4 miles from the dinner. Grocery shopping, to assisted living place to see family friend. @20 minutes later they show up.
    Restarted conversation. Agreement we are overdue for major epidemic. With China, unsecured border, planes bringing people around the world, and halfway home before they are symptomatic... it’s going to be bad.
    Thing is I fly thru two international airports. Not huge ones but MSP and DEN have a lot of foreign travelers.
  11. This will hit North America through Toronto Airport (for Canada) and San Francisco Airport for us...
  12. You forgot to put the lil @ sign, like this - @Westexas
  13. Where do I even begin. For those that don’t know, tracking infectious diseases was part of my job prior to retiring. I still do.

    I started tracking this back in December when Promed mail put out an alert.

    This is a “viral perfect storm” scenario. We are in the middle of the the worst flu season in over a decade and the Chinese festival has begun.

    This virus started in a wet market in Wuhan. It’s a Zoonotic virus that’s jumped to humans. I wasn’t too concerned until a week ago. That’s all changed now. China has assigned a separate Medical team to each serious/critical patient. You do that for patients showing signs of a “Cytokine storm.” This disease is going to tie up a lot of Medical personnel.

    The virus is believed to be mutating. China is bringing a Rapid Sequencer to Hubei province to check on this. Death rate is fluid, but appears to have gone from 1.5% to 3.8%. The virus also appears to be more contagious now. The case load is changing rapidly. It was 312 this morning and now it’s 560. It may be in 7 different countries.

    CDC has activated EOC. Who is considering raising raising the threat level as well.

    There is no vaccine and antivirals are of little use against Coronaviruses.

    The only bright spot is that China is now very open on its reporting and they are very good at containment of health threats.
  14. I’m here now.
  15. It's a big virus. upload_2020-1-22_10-55-36.png

  16. I should proofread more. I meant WHO is considering raising the threat level.
  17. Any reports of the dead returning to life, hungry for human flesh? I am always hopeful.
  18. Great! - Always nice to have an actual expert share their opinion here.
  19. I'm hoping a few months from now people are saying "What Chinese flu virus?"
  20. Dr. Stack (Epidemiologist) refers to China as a “giant viral engine.”
  21. The problem at the moment is that they just don't know the source or how it's transmitted. Time will tell if this becomes the next SARS or not.

    I had a trip to Shanghai scheduled for Feb 6, but I cancelled it until the all clear is signalled.

    I'll bet dollars to donuts that we end up finding out this was started by sheer stupidity. There's no lack of stupidity in China.
  22. I hope so too. This is a very fluid situation that’s changing rapidly. For those of you who are interested in this, FluTrackers is probably one of the best disease forums out there. Avian Flu Talk and CIDRAP are also good sites.
  23. Human to human transmission has been confirmed. At least 15 Healthcare workers have contracted the virus. The RO factor has yet to be determined.
  24. Since transmission is no known. For flying. Would you wear a N95 mask? Flying 2.5 hrs up here? I HATE wearing a mask.

    But... and if it looks like it’s spreading I will drive home. I intended selling a car in CO. Likely easier in MN anyway.
  25. outbreak.jpg
  26. The source is as yet not confirmed. It’s narrowed down to bats and bamboo rats. Both were readily available at the wet market in Wuhan.

    And yes, they’ll pretty much eat anything. I have read that bamboo rats are very lean and tasty.
  27. Go with a good quality N99 re-usable with replacement filters. Available on Amazon.
  28. [​IMG]
  29. I always laugh at that movie and their quest for “patient zero” to use for vaccine production. Very bad science and completely wrong.
  30. getting accurate information in China or from the Chinese is a lot like navigating through dense fog. It's as clear as mud. I think it will take time before we get an accurate handle on how many are infected, how many deaths, how contagious it is, etc.
  31. Jee-zus :frown:
    Is it airborne contagious?
  32. It is now, and apparently mutating.
  33. It’s always been that way with them, until this past week.

    They’re very transparent now. I think they are truly scared this time.
  34. [​IMG]

    ...okay, I'll stop...still, this stuff scares the **** outta me, not flying anywhere right now...
  35. A84995B2-B352-44C5-B006-0A234695806A.jpeg
    Well at least Canada and Kommifornia will catch it first.
  36. Delete. Oops.
  37. That would be my read on it as well. Which is not at all comforting.

    Invertebrate parasites and bacteria I can understand. I don't know a thing about viruses, and that's why they are about the only thing that I am actually afraid of.

    Well, viruses and Keyser Soze.
  38. don't be so sure about that. a London study estimates the number of infected to be around 1700 by mid January based on statistical analysis. That would be much higher by now.


    I can tell you based on my contacts in China, that there are several factors causing this:

    1. Chinese people overreact and are trying to flee the area (Wuhan) or China.
    2. This is a heavy travel season with Chinese new year approaching (an estimated 3 BILLION trips over the next week. Trains, busses, planes. Many are in transit or at their hometown in a very rural area where they wont see a doctor.
    3. Chinese people are inherently VERY selfish with no regard for others. So if they are sick, they try to hide their illness and get out of town or the country.
    4. in usual Chinese fashion, they dont have the test kits in the required quantities and in the rural areas to know if a person is infected or not

    This is all a recipe for disaster considering the population.

    And add to that, during Chinese meals, everyone dips their infected chopsticks into the same dish...imagine the infections coming.
  39. Fortunately not a Zombie virus. Just pneumonia with a possible side order of “Cytokine storm.”
  40. Big cities will be the first, and hardest hit.. Can you imagine a pathogen that can be spread just by breathing? Walking the streets of New York city will be a death march.. Riding a subway? Good luck with that!

    How would you conduct business without coming in close proximity to someone who can kill you just by breathing on you? What happens to the food supply lines when all the truck drivers and farm workers get sick? When you start to think about this stuff it becomes quite evident how very fragile our existence is and how easily we could all be flushed away over something as small as a flu bug.
  41. I'm still waiting for the part where the Left's official expert in 'politically-correct science' shows up on CNN, or authors a piece in the NYT, and blames all it on global warming, capitalist economies, or Trump.

    ... Or any combination thereof.

    ... or all three combined.


  42. Quite familiar with the London study. They’ve actually placed estimates now as high as 9,000.

    The cases I’m giving are actually confirmed. Very likely many more.

    The real game changer this time is they’re afraid. I don’t think they counted on this virus evolving this quickly.

    In one month, it’s spread to more countries than SARS did in 5. SARS never did adapt well to humans.
  43. Yeah, what could possibly go wrong. Wet markets, live animals, bushmeat and millions of people in close proximity......... and the ability to deliver the contagion to our doorstep in 12 hours.
    Just great
  44. 'F WORD!
  45. Oh freakin wonderful.
    If this thing starts spreading in the U.S., I expect a run on grocery and drug stores such as occurs in the north prior to blizzards, and in the south as a hurricane approaches.
    There could be wide spread panic if infection begins to rapidly occur.
    The upcoming Chinese Lunar New Year will only make things potentially worse if the standard millions begin travel.
  46. International flights can do the darnedest things to countries on the receiving end.

    We saw how that worked in World War Z.

    Well that, and we got to watch Brad Pitt wear the uber-cool Crye Precision G3 combat pants. Important to know when the world goes viral.

    So there was value-added right there. :thumbsup:
  47. @Westexas

    I have layman’s knowledge of these things.


    Would an antiviral, like Tamiflu, help if one started treatment early?

    As I recall, it drastically slows down how fast a virus can multiply in the host. Is it specific as to what virus it attacks?