This new coronavirus epidemic is starting to heat up

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by cowboy1964, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. BigBluefish

    BigBluefish

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    So...Fox News just had a doc on and when asked about a COVID spike from all the demonstrations downplayed it, saying you were 19 times less likely to catch it outside than inside. While that may be true, we didn't hear that when people were protesting the lockdowns. Then he complained about arresting people and putting them inside, in jail, where they are more likely to catch COVID.

    Seems to me they are singing quite a different song these past ten days or so.

    Oh, and he said it was important to trust the gov't and know it will take of us if we get COVID.

    Seriously???
     
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  2. Westexas

    Westexas

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    If you’re not a prepper, become one. Sooner or later we will have another pandemic unless drastic changes occur in China.

    China needs to end the carelessness in its research facilities and drastically alter their animal husbandry practices. Their gigantic chicken and pig farms are breeding grounds for Avian Flu viruses.

    I don’t see that happening, so get prepared.
     
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  3. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    I started something new on the computer today. First, the background.
    People save car repair receipts. I went beyond that this last year. I have one computer document that records the every repair with the mileage, date and sometimes who did the repair. Last year, I created a separate document. It has two functions. One function is to be a list to hand in multiple copies to the repair shop. I don't want a mechanic to forget anything I want him to do. So, he has a list.

    On the list I put my questions as well as the work that needs to be done.

    Separately, last year, I created a document of forward looking things. They include the next blood donation, the next time the next ductwork needs to be done, the times and dates of classes, when the batteries on the outside game cameras need checking, the dentist visits for a periodic check up, etc.

    Today, I started putting on the forward looking calendar when I should buy specific items for re-stocking. No guessing. No over buying. Using the calendar when looking for specials and sales.

    No, the Chinese will not change their labs or their animal husbandry policies to make them more secure. There is no profit to be made or political will to do so. You will have to plane around that reality. That is why I started adding preps. on the forward looking calendar.
     
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  4. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    I don't want to hear someone who says it's ok to pack 100,000 people together screaming and shouting then complain about putting a tiny tiny percentage of them in jails because they broke the law.
     
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  5. flyover

    flyover

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  6. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    Vitamin D comments:
    1. I am not a doctor.
    2. your skin coloration does affect the absorption of Vitamin D.
    3. your time in the sun, the time of exposure in the sun, and the location where you receive sunlight all affect the possible absorption of Vitamin D.
    4. if you are cautious, you use a sunblocking or sun screen material on sensitive parts of the body that are subject to cancers such as the nose, ears, back of hands, head, and arms.

    When you consider historic changes in employment from farming to indoor work, for example, you understand that the exposure time to the sun is released. Even kids who used to play outdoors with neighborhood kids may now be on buses between school and home or watching television instead.

    If your medical insurance allows it, and you request a Vitamin D test, you will have a snapshot of whether your are deficient and need to change lifestyle or take a supplement, without guessing.
     
  7. Tvov

    Tvov

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    Wow, things must be slowing down... no new posts since yesterday?

    My town is accelerating the "re-opening", I think mostly because people are just starting to go about their business regardless. Politicians want to get out there to pretend they are doing something.

    Signs about "social distancing" around town are amusing... shows two people walking, with an arrow saying "6 feet" between them. Then bicycles, with an arrow saying "3 feet" between them, then two CARS, with an arrow saying "6 feet" between them.... lol!

    The big illuminated signs (like highway warning signs) have been removed finally. Those signs were saying things like "fines for violations" about "essential" driving only. Made driving thru town feel like we were in a gulag or something....
     
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  8. flyover

    flyover

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  9. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    Most people have the attention span of a butterfly and the resolution of a lemming who willingly goes over cliffs to be part of the crowd.

    1. this topic is not sexy enough for the forum members who want to vent. They fail to understand that if they simply turned off the television and took a walk, life would look better.
    2. the virus is no less dangerous, the need for changing the handling of the elderly remains, the need for more self discipline to avoid medical conditions also remains. I doubt that any resolution exists to deal with those challenges.
     
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  10. Westexas

    Westexas

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    I wonder if there is a
    “seasonal” Association with COVID 19. Not with the actual virus, but with our immune systems.

    The virus circulated in China during the winter. The reports coming out of China seemed to indicate a significant mortality rate.

    The virus arrives here much later. People are starting to get more sun exposure resulting in higher vitamin D levels. According to the CDC, about half the population of this country that’s exposed show no symptoms. The mortality rate only appears to be 0.58%.
    Certainly doesn’t appear to be nearly as dangerous as what it was in China.

    The question is, what happens this fall and winter when vitamin D levels are apt to drop from the lack of sun exposure? Will we see a much worse “second wave?”

    Is a drop in vitamin D levels the real cause of the seasonality of respiratory infections, or at least a contributing factor?

    What do y’all think?
     
  11. flyover

    flyover

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    It will be interesting to see and add in the regular seasonal flu.... :couch:
     
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  12. Tvov

    Tvov

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    Everyone it seems is saying it will come back, but I think we are much more prepared to handle it.
     
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  13. Westexas

    Westexas

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    This made me laugh.

    I really hope you’re right, but after 40 years of working with infectious diseases and dealing with bureaucrats, I have my doubts. I agree that we should be better prepared to handle this, but after watching the complete insanity that has been going on lately, I remain very skeptical.
     
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  14. Westexas

    Westexas

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    Which is another major concern that I have. During a bad flu season, many Trauma centers are at the breaking point. I’ve seen this first hand.

    I remember running so many flu tests during bad flu seasons that I’d actually dream about running them. Ugh! Glad I’m retired.
     
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  15. flyover

    flyover

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    The week end report is out and another 257 cases bringing the total case count to 10,650. 936 in hospitals with 311 in ICUs and 136 on ventilators. 625 have been discharged.

    Male cases currently stand at 5,837 (54.8%), female cases at 4,637 (43.5%) with 176 (1.7) not reported.

    236 deaths reported with males at 122 (51.7%) and females at 114 (48.3%).

    119,308 have been tested with 108,859 testing negative. The 10 counties now account for 9,489 of the reported cases.
     
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  16. Jon_R

    Jon_R

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    A couple days ago FL had the highest number of new cases ever at 1400 and people jumped on it. To get that the state ran 56k tests in one day. So that reporting day positive rate was 2.5%. My county (600k) is 1% positive for the month with 3738 tests. We are full phase 2.

    The state deaths have been bouncing around but last few days been low enough to be in the noise for FL. Pre covid virus normal for FL is 550 deaths a day so 12 or so for covid does not move the needle much. We will see how it goes.
     
  17. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    A woman doctor in Scandanavia some years ago did a study. I cannot cite it. She researched whether the respiratory infections of children were seasonable. She observed that children played together, year around. They were always in close proximity. In the late autumn and winter they were housed together in school without sunlight. She concluded that the seasonality was because of a lack of vitamin D.

    Now for a slightly different impression. In the US Army, people from disparate environments are thrown together in barracks. Many contract viruses and get sick. Very few die. Although one might believe that the new recruits get ample sunshine. However, much instruction is done indoors. When outdoors, a head covering is required. The arms and legs are not exposed as well.

    I also read a study about the different spectrums in light.

    Latitude and vitamin D production in the skin

    [​IMG]

    Except during the summer months, the skin makes little if any vitamin D from the sun at latitudes above 37 degrees north (in the United States, the shaded region in the map) or below 37 degrees south of the equator. People who live in these areas are at relatively greater risk for vitamin D deficiency.
     
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  18. BigBluefish

    BigBluefish

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    Perhaps being indoors more during the winter months as well? Not only in general, but schools are in session Sept - May, perhaps that also contributes: a much larger number of people indoors, in close proximity, every day during those months.

    I was wondering if there was any data regarding whites' versus African American' susceptibility to seasonal flu? If Vitamin D were a substantial factor, either to contracting the disease, or suffering more serious effects, then I would think the darker one's skin, the more poorly one would do. But, if bdcochran's image is correct, we Yankees should pretty much all be Vitamin D deficient (I know I was) while those in more Southern climes would have a better chance of making Vitamin D. (With the warmer weather, they might also be outside much more, with lesser clothing, during the winter months, particularly on the Gulf Coasts and pretty much all of Florida.) Do these areas tend to see less severe outbreaks of seasonal flu?
     
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  19. Westexas

    Westexas

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    This certainly brings up some interesting possibilities. The severity of respiratory infections in the fall and winter months may be due to a vitamin D deficiency.

    We’re likely going to find out this fall.
     
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  20. n2g

    n2g

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    I've stopped checking Georgia's website daily, but today's numbers are 52,497 confirmed cases with 2,208 deaths. (Btw, the site now works on a Mac with Google, which it did not when they first changed the format.) Also, the data is now updated only once a day, at 3:00 p.m.

    Georgia has done close to 650,000 tests, with 8.3% positive.

    Here's a link to the official website:

    https://dph.georgia.gov/covid-19-daily-status-report


    The website has so many disclaimers that it has become hard for me to tell trends. For example, the hospitalizations and ICU admissions report only those who were hospitalized when the case was first reported or interviewed, not those who were hospitalized/ICU admitted later, which would probably be many. Also the deaths are no longer listed by date of death, but by descending age and county, so there is no way to tell who (age, gender, etc.) and where the recent deaths occurred, or at least not without a lot of complicated data recording from day to day.

    My county's cases are still creeping up at a somewhat faster rate, but we're still not a hot spot. We've had a few more deaths, several of whom were in their 50's and early 60's. No other details are available about them, however.

    At 73, I'm still staying in and doing curbside pickups for groceries and drive-throughs for the occasional restaurant food, which I usually reheat a few minutes if possible. I'm getting really tired of staying home, but I'm going to do it for awhile longer. My church is reopening soon, but like many of the members who are also in their 70's, I don't plan to attend so soon. It's a small building and only a few could maintain reasonable distances, and we have a good many who have serious health issues. They are also planning to have Vacation Bible School this month, and I hope and pray no one gets sick from that. Usually as many parents/adults show up to eat as children, so that's a concern.

    This doesn't mean I think they are unwise to do so, because I know we have to try to get back to normal at some point. I just don't know when that point is, though, especially for those of us at higher risk for whatever reason. Georgia's shelter in place order for those at higher risk ends on June 13, as far as I know.

    I read somewhere this weekend that Georgia's "R rate" is currently the second-highest in the nation, just below Vermont's, of all places. I have no idea if that is accurate or not.

    The thread activity has slowed down a lot, but I'm still checking it at least every few days. The MN death and the riots and the response, or lack thereof, to the riots have taken the headlines and GT interest away from Covid. And in general, I think a lot of people are just fed up with Mr. CV, although that has nothing to do with the actual current risk, of course.

    Thank you to those of you who regularly post current info on Covid here. This thread is still a great source of info.

    Stay well!
     
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