This new coronavirus epidemic is starting to heat up

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by cowboy1964, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Westexas

    Westexas

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    Hey now. Some of us enjoy petty bickering.
     
  2. Westexas

    Westexas

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    It gets worse, much worse.
    Cancel those vacation plans to Yemen as well.


    [​IMG] "BBC Live News" wrote:




    The United Nations says aid workers report that war-torn Yemen's healthcare system has "in effect collapsed" and coronavirus is spreading through the country.

    Jens Laerke, spokesman for the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), described the situation as "extremely alarming" at a Geneva briefing.

    He said aid agencies had talked of people being turned away from treatment centres partly because staff lacked personal protective equipment.

    The Yemeni authorities have confirmed scores of coronavirus cases, and 30 deaths. But the UN says the real figures are almost certainly much higher.

    Years of fighting have made millions of Yemenis homeless; many are malnourished; and most of the population depends on aid.
     

  3. glockophile42

    glockophile42

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  4. glockophile42

    glockophile42

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  5. Westexas

    Westexas

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    Sorry. I know you had your heart set on vacationing on the beautiful beaches of Yemen, but it’s not going to happen.

    Maybe next year. The beaches will still be there.
     
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  6. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    1. Plans for what? You aren't going to have advance public health preparedness and planning for this epidemic as it continues. You didn't have advance public health preparedness and planning before this one either.
    2. It is high time that we set an example in public relations and communications. No more admirals being press secretaries. No more public relations offices for apparently every department of the US government.
     
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  7. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

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    Should we just ignore the people and black out government? Most of what these "public relations" offices do is answer questions from the public and provide information on what the government is doing. If the government could keep that all in the dark and behind closed doors, don't you think it might get out of hand?
     
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  8. Westexas

    Westexas

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    I’ve not been too impressed with the CDC since 2014. Remember the Ebola outbreak in West Africa? They were telling hospitals that level 2 PPE was adequate protection for Ebola.

    The problem? Ebola has been a known BSL 4 organism since it was discovered in 1976.

    That stupidity resulted in Healthcare workers in Dallas becoming infected.
     
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  9. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26

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  10. pblanc

    pblanc

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    Thanks for passing that on. I find a 30-50% rate of asymptomatic infection perfectly plausible. Some of the better population-based surveys that have been done have suggested an asymptomatic rate approaching 50%, although there is always the possibility that some of those asymptomatic individuals were actually presymptomatic and developed illness after testing. I doubt that the rate of asymptomatic infection is likely to be much higher than 50% though.

    As for the CDC estimate of an overall infection fatality rate of .4% for symptomatic infection, I agree with those who find that estimate a bit over-optimistic.

    Consider the current case fatality rate based on the reported figures for confirmed cases and deaths in the US: 1,667,935 cases, 98,705 deaths, case fatality ratio 5.9%. In order to believe that the actual infection fatality ratio for symptomatic infection with this virus is really 0.4% would require the assumption that there have been around 15 cases of covid-19 infection with only mild symptoms that were not reported for every confirmed case. That would mean that instead of approximately 1.7 million cases of symptomatic infection, there has actually been around 25 million cases of symptomatic infection in the US. That would represent over 7.5% of the US population.

    There has not been any testing yet done anywhere in the US that would support such a large number of mildly symptomatic infections. Even in New York City, which has to be just about the hardest hit population anywhere in the US, the antibody testing that was done showed a rate of seropositivity of 19.9% and that survey had significant flaws that probably biased that estimate upward. New York City's confirmed case count amounts to a little over 2.3% of the city's population. So even if we accepted the results of the antibody survey at face value, that would imply that there were less than 9 people with covid-19 antibodies for every confirmed case, and many of those individuals had never developed symptoms so they would not count in determining the infection fatality ratio for symptomatic infection.

    Of course, the emergence of new treatment modalities could potentially have a significant impact of the infection fatality ratio down the road.
     
    Last edited: May 24, 2020
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  11. Sharkey

    Sharkey

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    Well really not about the virus but our response to it. Wife wanted a Miata so I sold a nice bike and gave her half the cash for a good down payment. We went last week to Round Rock and dealership was crazy busy. We stopped in Waco to see my aunt and restaurants were super busy. Aunt had literally not left house since 3/21.
    Hotel lobby where we stayed was a ghost town.
    Yesterday we went to a Powersports dealer (I need 2 bikes in the garage). They were super busy and sales guy tells me this will be a banner year for powersports (not for HD).
    We then got to church and there is about 25% capacity with spacing between everyone. We leave for dinner at a popular BBQ joint where we meet up with my step dad and there was a line out the door.
    I think businesses are ramping up here in TX. Community gatherings are still gun shy. Even Fauci stated that the stay at home orders were detrimental to society this week (it was a CNBC article).
    Red states are trying get going again. I can't speak for blue states. Honestly, I haven't checked this thread in about 4 days. It is kinda info. Overload and different quotes of experts saying opposing things.

    Sent from my SM-T380 using Tapatalk
     
  12. billy_56081

    billy_56081

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    Got my test results back from the testing at the Minnesota national guard screening yesterday, negative!
     
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  13. wyntrout

    wyntrout

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    Sharkey, LTC West just had an accident there in Waco after the rally or whatever. He and another biker were cut off by a car and the first bike braked to be hit by the second bike. West is in the hospital and stable.
     
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  14. Westexas

    Westexas

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    A new study from scientists in the United States suggests that a significant majority of the population may already have some level of immunity to the coronavirus, a possible explanation for why so many individuals seem to experience few to no symptoms from the disease.

    The study, written by researchers in California, New York and North Carolina and soon to be published in the journal Cell, discovered that certain types of cells in blood samples taken from donors in 2015-2018—well before COVID-19 arose—were reactive against the COVID-19 virus. In other words, those blood samples were at least partially immune from the coronavirus even though they had never been exposed to it.

    "CD4+ T cell responses were detected in 40-60% of unexposed individuals. This may be reflective of some degree of crossreactive, preexisting immunity to SARS- CoV-2 in some, but not all, individuals," the researchers state in the paper.

    The scientists are careful to qualify their conclusions. "Whether this immunity is relevant in influencing clinical outcomes is unknown—and cannot be known without T cell measurements before and after SARS- CoV-2 infection of individuals—but it is tempting to speculate that the crossreactive CD4+ T cells may be of value in protective immunity," they write.

    The research could provide an important clue for public health officials hoping to figure out why significant numbers of COVID-19 infections are either asymptomatic or else largely mild. The disease affects elderly and less healthy individuals most severely, with younger and healthy individuals for the most part spared its worst effects.

    Though the term "coronavirus" has become ubiquitous in recent weeks as a way to describe the virus causing the current pandemic, coronaviruses are actually a variegated strain of infectious agents that cause illnesses ranging from the common cold to SARS.

    The researchers in their paper suggest that the immune response seen in the uninfected blood samples could have been generated by the coronaviruses that cause the common cold.

    https://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/study-suggests-majority-population-may-already-have-some-
     
  15. thespork

    thespork

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  16. Sharkey

    Sharkey

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    Yeah I heard that. As a fellow motorcycle rider, I cringed hearing it. Thankfully it sounds like he will recover.

    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
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  17. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    ttps://justthenews.com/politics-policy/coronavirus/study-suggests-majority-population-may-already-have-some-degree
     
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  18. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    1. /freebeacon.com/coronavirus/inside-israels-war-on-the-coronavirus/?utm_source=actengage&utm_campaign=FreedomMail&utm_medium=email

    You read this article and compare it to the political response in the USA. Every society has things it does well and things that it doesn't do well. The CDC spokesperson talks about planning. Simply implement the low cost planning which means look at what works. It doesn't mean rediscover the wheel.

    2. You at the article that was published in full about some natural immunity. This possibility was dismissed out of hand by the learned doctors and politicians. "Cancer" is not one "cancer". There is more than one virus.

    3. Is this current situation going to be a starting point for a better healthcare systems or just a starting point for a newly coined phrase "underlying medical conditions". Are you going to hit people hard with the information that their smoking, their obesity, their lack of exercise, their excessive drinking, their diet may/can/will kill them - or will it be the usual - let the someone else make the effort to stop me from creating my own "underlying medical conditions", like the government promising me free medical care.
     
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  19. ModGlock17

    ModGlock17

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    Someone needs to look into the health background of folks who suffered most.

    1. Do they often get flu shots every season, or not ?

    2. Do they tend to "get flu/cold" or do they run on years without getting any?

    3. Diets?

    There's lots of info out there, waiting for master level candidates.

    bd, I'd like to see someone With some degree of apolitical-ness to look into this. And from non-government organizations. Bureaucrats would take the chance to justify their jobs.
     
    Last edited: May 25, 2020
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  20. Westexas

    Westexas

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    I’d like to see the news media mention Vitamin D.
     
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