This new coronavirus epidemic is starting to heat up

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by cowboy1964, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. FullClip

    FullClip Native Mainiac CLM

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    253 "official" cases with 3 deaths here in Maine now. Not a whole lot of testing, so suspect that number is lower than reality. Most still in the south east corner around Portland. But since we are kind of late getting it here, that the "wave" will take longer to pass over us.

    https://www.newscentermaine.com/art...id-19/97-e06fc2a0-bdfd-4c56-b25d-933ba1e0ea51
    Live Coronavirus Updates: 3 dead, 253 confirmed cases
    The Maine CDC reported two more deaths Sunday, bringing the state total to 3. One of the deaths announced Sunday was a longtime MaineDOT employee.
     
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  2. ModGlock17

    ModGlock17

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    Yeah. And the society has become an Introvert's dream. No face to face contact.

    LOL
     

  3. ModGlock17

    ModGlock17

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    Great.

    In reality, if I've got 2 days left in this world (and I want to stay),
    I'd say, 'Eff the trial, give it to me now!"
     
  4. Sharkey

    Sharkey

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  5. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    From 1953 to 1961, there was a television program, Criswell Predicts.
    In keeping with his prediction abilities and the recent published information that 70-80% of patients put on ventilators are dying during this epidemic, I will venture some predictions about the second wave, coming next year.
    1. nearly all people with severe underlying medical conditions which can be ameliorated through changed behavior will not have changed;
    2. the hysteria among bean counters about counting ones and twosees of deaths will no longer be in the forums or the news unless the epidemic mutates in a bad way.
    3. there will be plenty of ventilators available - and they won't make much difference in death statistics for people with underlying conditions.
    4. a reliable test will be available and it won't make a difference in a person acquiring the virus or make a difference in treatment.
    5. if a vaccine becomes available, people will refuse to have it on the grounds of religion, ineffectiveness, government conspiracy, doctors wanting more income, and that the vaccine contains some trace and obscure mineral or chemical.
     
  6. Geko45

    Geko45 Smartass Pilot CLM

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    US Trend update:

    I'm pleased to report that my forecast of 250,000 by the end of March will not be coming to pass. We have a definite slowing trend starting in the US. We are still going to be increasing for awhile and we will still likely surpass 250,000 in early April, but it looks like all the measures that have been put in place are starting to make a difference. As long as we manage to keep a lid on any new hot spots forming then we might be able to keep this thing under a measure of control.

    The 14 day average doubling rate is 2.92 days, but the most recent daily doubling rate is 4.68 days. The current growth rate puts us just short of the 200,000 case mark by the end of tomorrow (March 31st).

    COVID-19-US-Mar-30.png

    COVID-19-US-DR-Mar-30.png
    *Please note, these are trend projections, this is not a scientific model of epidemiological spread. These projections do not factor in new initiatives to mitigate the virus nor socioeconomic or medical/political factors beyond those that already existed when the data was recorded.
     
  7. Deanster

    Deanster Cheese? CLM Millennium Member

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    You always forget to add ‘so far’...

    It cracks me up when people treat today’s number of deaths as if it’s the final tally, when US COVID deaths are going up by several hundred a day. 2,490 to date, up from 1,027 on March 25.

    With confirmed cases doubling every ~5 days, and STILL not enough testing to be confident that we’re capturing a good picture of the current state of US cases... I’d say do the math, but that’s asking an awful lot of most Americans.
     
  8. GeorgiaGlocker

    GeorgiaGlocker Romans 10:9

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    Just saw a story on Fox News that the U.S. Army Medical Research Institute for Infectious Diseases (USAMRIID) in Fort Detrick, MD is working 24/7 to find treatments, a vaccine, etc for the Covid-19. I pray they are successful very soon.
     
  9. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    Dude....

    It was a CHOIR practice. They were singing at the top of their collective lungs, and spewing spittle all over each other. Have you never seen how spittle explodes from the mouths of singers?
     
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  10. Velvetfoot

    Velvetfoot

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  11. Kevinr20

    Kevinr20

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    The article is misleading though. Says "45 have been diagnosed with COVID-19 or ill with the symptoms." My distrust in the media leads me to believe very few of the 45 were actually diagnosed.
     
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  12. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    That's in 6 months. COVID has killed 2428 in the last 10 days. If the deaths per day stayed at that rate, then we'd have 44,311 deaths after 6 months.

    That's if the deaths weren't doubling every 4 days or so.

    DOUBLING. EVERY 4 DAYS.

    So, the math is;

    172.5 days left in a 6 month span, after subtracting the first 10 days to get to 2428 deaths. Doubling the deaths every 4 days for the 6 moths (- the first 10 days) means starting with 2428 x 2, and doing that 43.125 times.

    Do that and basically we're well beyond the population of this country.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
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  13. Sharkey

    Sharkey

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    True and you always forget to add - "projected calculations for worst case scenario.".


    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
  14. pblanc

    pblanc

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    That estimate of cumulative deaths due to influenza for the 2019-2020 flu season of between 24,000 and 62,000 is really not much different than what the CDC has presented as the burden of influenza for the past 10 years based on prior experience, which has been 12,000-61,000 annual deaths since 2010:

    https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html

    That would suggest that the CDC is considering this flu season to be a bit worse than average for the last decade.

    The animation that was cited is showing an estimate of relative risks of death due to covid-19 versus other causes over the past month. That is obviously much different than a cumulative death rate. The relative risk of dying from covid-19 has obviously increased dramatically over the past month in the US to the point that over 500 people were dying from it daily nationwide as of a couple of days ago. That national death rate might possibly have leveled off and started a downward trend since there were "only" 362 Americans died from it yesterday, but it is too early to hang your hat on that because the peak has clearly not yet occurred in a majority of US states.

    The daily death toll from influenza can only be guessed at. That is why there is such a huge range given by the CDC for influenza deaths projected for this year and even prior years. But by late March flu season is tailing off and is all but over by April many years. So I think it is pretty safe to say that as of today the relative risk of dying from covid-19 is higher than that of dying from influenza in the US.

    The cumulative death rate for covid-19 in the US is currently somewhat in excess of 2,600. That was the total reported as of yesterday and reports from today are pending. So yes, the cumulative death rate from influenza for this calendar year certainly exceeds that for covid-19 as of now. The virus pandemic is projected to peak in mid April for some states, but not until May for others. That comes from a model that was used by researchers at the University of Washington predicting that the number of covid-19 deaths in the US will not drop below 10/day until early June. That same model predicts a cumulative US death rate from covid-19 over the next four months of 38,242 to 162,106 (95% confidence interval) with an average of 81,114 US deaths. But they make no projections past July.

    They also assume in their model that social distancing measures including school closures, shelter in place directives, travel restrictions, and closure of non-essential services and businesses (including bars and restaurants) will not only continue until June in all states that have already adopted such measures, but that all states that have not will do so by April.
     
  15. Sharkey

    Sharkey

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    Makes me rethink my Karaoke choices.

    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
  16. Sharkey

    Sharkey

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    That is a niche on porntube.

    Sent from my Pixel 3a XL using Tapatalk
     
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  17. fx77

    fx77 CLM

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  18. jetflier1989

    jetflier1989

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    Sounds similar to how it went down in Italy. I heard they triaged the patients based on survivability rate. It’s terrible if your the one they have to let go. But personally if it was certain at 53 I wasn’t going to pull through I would hate to see someone much younger and healthier than me go with me unnecessarily.
     
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  19. Deanster

    Deanster Cheese? CLM Millennium Member

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    That’s because they’re nowhere near a worst case scenario projection.

    Per Trump, those called for ~2.2m US deaths.

    Hopefully, we’ve taken enough action to reduce that to a tiny fraction of that number.
     
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  20. Kevinr20

    Kevinr20

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    There are wayyyy too many variables to say how long and how often the rate will double. To suggest it could continue the current trend for 6 months is ridiculous. From your math, that means every single person on this planet would be dead in 3 months.