This new coronavirus epidemic is starting to heat up

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by cowboy1964, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. talon

    talon

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    Excellent choice
     
  2. Westexas

    Westexas

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    What about freeze dried food? Mountain House is good.
     
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  3. Westexas

    Westexas

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    A second US case of deadly coronavirus has been confirmed, this time in Illinois
    Today, 10:21 AM

    Source: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/...es/4562257002/

    A second US case of deadly coronavirus has been confirmed, this time in Illinois
    Ryan W. Miller
    USA TODAY

    The deadly coronavirus has afflicted another person in the United States, health officials confirmed Friday, bringing the total number of U.S. cases to two as Chinese health officials scramble to contain the outbreak.

    A Chicago woman returned Jan. 13 from Wuhan, the epicenter of the outbreak, and began experiencing symptoms a few days after arriving home, said the city's health officials.

    The 60-year-old woman called her doctor after symptoms arose and she was admitted to a hospital and placed in isolation, health officials said. Further testing confirmed the virus.

    Nancy Messonnier, the director of the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases at the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, said the risk to the U.S. public remains low but that more cases will likely be confirmed in the coming days...
     
  4. Westexas

    Westexas

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    www.businessinsider.com.au/scientist-simulated-coronavirus-pandemic-deaths-2020-1

    Health experts issued an ominous warning about a coronavirus pandemic 3 months ago. Their simulation showed it could kill 65 million people.
    ARIA BENDIX
    JAN 24, 2020, 4:04 AM

    A coronavirus that originated in Wuhan, China, has killed 18 people and infected more than 630.
    The virus has been reported in at least eight other countries, including the US, where a man in Washington who recently visited China was confirmed to have the illness.
    A scientist at Johns Hopkins last year modelled what would happen if a deadly coronavirus reached a pandemic scale. His simulated scenario predicted that 65 million people could die within 18 months.
    Visit Business Insider’s homepage for more stories.
    Eric Toner, a scientist at the Johns Hopkins Centre for Health Security, wasn’t shocked when news of a mysterious coronavirus outbreak in Wuhan, China, surfaced in early January.

    Less than three months earlier, Toner had staged a simulation of a global pandemic involving a coronavirus.

    Coronaviruses typically affect the respiratory tract and can lead to illnesses like pneumonia or the common cold. A coronavirus was also responsible for the outbreak of severe acute respiratory syndrome in China, which affected about 8,000 people and killed 774 in the early 2000s.

    “I have thought for a long time that the most likely virus that might cause a new pandemic would be a coronavirus,” Toner said.
     
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  5. willie_pete

    willie_pete NRA Life Member

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    Wuhan is apparently one center of a large number of drug manufacturers that supply the US. At some point there will be a supply chain disruption of those drugs.

    This article was talking about the trade war, but a bad virus outbreak will likely have the same outcome.

    https://nypost.com/2019/09/03/the-hidden-perils-of-drugs-imported-from-china/

    " When you pick up your prescription at the pharmacy, it isn’t labelled “made in China,” but odds are that’s where many of your medications come from.

    US factories no longer make generic antibiotics. So, if US-China tensions worsen, China could cut off antibiotic exports, throwing our hospitals into turmoil, warns Hastings Center health expert Rosemary Gibson.

    The federal US-China Economic and Safety Review Commission warned this summer about the dangers of American reliance on China for life-saving drugs. If the US were attacked with anthrax, China would be a major source for ciprofloxacin, an antibiotic needed to treat victims. “What if China were the anthrax attacker?” Gibson asked. "



    When China sneezes, the US population is going to catch a cold.
     
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  6. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    From 0 or 1 yesterday to 63 today. I wonder how many of these are going to turn out to be real.

    Did the CDC give locations for all these cases? Probably not.
     
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  7. Cmacc

    Cmacc

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    My guess is their workload has increased significantly lately.
     
    Last edited: Jan 24, 2020
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  8. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    Half of GT probably doesn't know who Bob is.

    [​IMG]
     
  9. Westexas

    Westexas

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    An analysis posted online on Friday by scientists from Lancaster University, puts R0 for the new coronavirus at 3.8 and estimates that should the epidemic continue unabated, there could be 191,529 infections by 4 February.

    https://www.theguardian.com/science/live...ws-updates
    Well how about this to brighten everyone’s day? No wonder the Chinese military is being mobilized. The R0 for the damn Flu is “2.” Crap, crap, and still more crap.
     
  10. Westexas

    Westexas

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    I thought he was funny as hell. Would have made a great stand up comedian.

    The more I dig, the worse this
    gets.
     
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  11. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    3.8 is not good news at all but I question how accurate anyone outside of China can be in estimating this kind of thing. They aren't even sure what the R0 was for SARS, they estimate 2 to 4.
     
  12. Westexas

    Westexas

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    Glad I retired from the medical field. My wife is still working at an Emergency room lab.
     
  13. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    Quit digging! :cheers:
     
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  14. Westexas

    Westexas

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    They may be privy to information from the CDC that we are not. China is likely supplying information to the CDC. With enough data points, mathematical modeling can be done. This is a field that Epidemiologists are educated in.

    In past outbreaks, the CDC, WHO, and other disease monitoring institutions work together (at least they are supposed to).

    I don’t doubt that this new R0
    number is quite possible just based on the hourly reports that are now coming across.

    China appears to be extremely concerned. We’ll just have to see. This is unknown territory and beyond my pay grade.
     
  15. G33

    G33 Frisky! CLM Millennium Member

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    Planet can afford to lose 1-2 billion humans.
    :)
     
  16. Westexas

    Westexas

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    At this point, I think it’s necessary. I’ve worked with infectious diseases (mostly bacteria though) for over 40
    years.

    I’ve studied pandemics throughout history. I’m concerned,
     
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  17. Foxterriermom

    Foxterriermom No place like home

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    A Fort Worth radio station reported this morning that a student at Texas A&M in College Station supposedly has it and is "self-isolated". The student is said to be Chinese and had been home over the holidays. They are still waiting on an official confirmation of the diagnosis.

    Anyone watching Pandemic on Netflix?
     
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  18. G26-Has-my-6

    G26-Has-my-6

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    at least China can afford to lose a billion or so...
     
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  19. Westexas

    Westexas

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    Based on the 1918 pandemic modeling, we could be looking at between 108 million to 216
    Million.
     
  20. Westexas

    Westexas

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    That’s the big unknown. In fact almost all of this is uncharted territory.

    All I can do is find the reports. Y’all will need to decide what you want to do with the information.

    I’m taking this seriously just based on the reaction of the Chinese Government.
     
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