This new coronavirus epidemic is starting to heat up

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by cowboy1964, Jan 22, 2020.

  1. Mr Meeseeks

    Mr Meeseeks

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    If the rest of the world had been tested as thoroughly as the Diamond Princess, the Confirmed cases outside of China would be higher. Right now the Diamond Princess numbers are the only reliable ones on planet Earth.

    Now as armchair amateur epidemiologists and fact-checkers, THE thing to watch will be Serious,Critival, and Death rates associated with Diamond Princess passengers.

    Let me state it again, with no special hyperlinks, just basic deduction. The numbers outside of China are much higher than the cruise ship Diamond Princess. These folks just haven’t been tested. In many areas they will not be reported even if tested positive.
     
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  2. BMyers

    BMyers

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    I just seen a video that David and his wife tested positive. I wonder if they will let them stay together in the hospital when they get moved there?
     

  3. Westexas

    Westexas

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    [​IMG]
    Last Update2020/2/18 16:40
    Confirmed75146
    Deaths2007
    Recovered14095
    Mortality rate 2.67%

    Source:COVID19info.live
     
  4. catman71

    catman71 Spewer of TROOF

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    DC50F4B0-63BD-4D73-835C-B48FE12EDE20.jpeg

    They did it!
    Congratulations China!


     
  5. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    The answer is "yes".
    1. manifests and receipts need to be signed.
    2. provisions need to be taken on board.
    3. there are restrictions on discharge materials in US waters which require certain procedures must be followed. You can't pump the crap into the ocean.
    4. despite all the cranes in the world, don't assume that officials don't go on board for inspections. With the customs officials sitting in the shade sipping soft drinks, I had to go down to the harbor and break open a container to establish that it didn't contain contraband. I was wearing a suit. The shipment was coming from Ching Rai.
    5. do not assume that germs die within 5 minutes. A friend worked air cargo for foreign airlines. shipments of everything would come in. like a pink tank from Lady Gaga, horses, art works, food stuff like cheeses and chocolates from Europe. The customs people were always in and looking.
    6. just like in the movies and on television, people are smuggled in to the USA in containers. According to the LA Times, the rates can be as high as $10,000 to smuggle in someone from the PRC or Africa.

    Here is some rain on the parade that the problem is cargo ships:
    PRINCETON, Calif. —

    Two fishing boats allegedly ferrying Chinese immigrants from a mother ship offshore were seized by authorities Wednesday in small Northern California harbors in a widening of the recent wave of coastal smuggling.

    The two vessels, carrying nearly 300 refugees, were seized within hours of each other when they attempted to dock more than 60 miles apart at Moss Landing and Princeton, south of San Francisco.

    Smuggling is not limited to walking over the border.
     
  6. Trucker3573

    Trucker3573

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    Going to be a worldwide epidemic in the next year. Is what it is so do what you can to keep a strong immune system. Human nature of selfishness just can’t be helped. People will spread this due to disregard of others.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  7. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    Seems the majority on that ship will be getting it unless they get everyone off there.

    The lawsuits over this thing are going to fly. But it's hard to sue governments.
     
  8. Jesuvuah

    Jesuvuah

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    Only time will tell how this will play out.

    Sent from my moto e5 (XT1920DL) using Tapatalk
     
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  9. Sgt127

    Sgt127

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    I’m still reasonably good with the odds.

    I’m in my late 50’s. No underlying medical conditions. Never smoked. Not overweight.

    If half the worlds population catches it, I’m going with the optimistic view that I won’t catch it. A decent supply of N95 masks. May help. May not but, it feels like it’s doing something. So, my odds are in my favor already by 50%.

    (I may, however, die of chapped hands as I’m washing them every time I touch anything)

    If I catch it, I have a decent supply of Ibuprofen, expectorants, anti diarrhea meds, cough syrup and rehydration fluids.

    That should keep me out of the hospital (where my odds of catching something more deadly go up). unless it becomes critical.

    The death rate is holding at about 3% it appears. So, I have a 50% chance of catching something that has a 97% survival rate.

    I’m a glass half full kind of guy on this one I suppose (for now).

    :)
     
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  10. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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  11. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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  12. BigBluefish

    BigBluefish

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    Is it my imagination, or is the death rate ticking up in the past 5 days?
     
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  13. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    I was about to ask that too. I thought it has been hovering around 2.2-2.3.

    It might be ticking up simply because new cases are decreasing (whether that's real or not, those are the official numbers) but since it takes maybe weeks to die there is going to be a lag.
     
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  14. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    May I modify this slightly. People will spread the virus because of love. Some few years ago, a British epidemiologist examined an epidemic brought into a small English community in wool. He took the death records in the village. He learned that it was not a matter of neighbor infecting neighbor. It was relatives. A relative would come and take care of an ill person and then take the fetal germ home and give it to the next member of the family in a similar effort to assist each other.

    If you have relatives, they will pass it on to other relatives. Last weekend the older son of my girlfriend got off the plane. He had lost 12 pounds in a week. Guess who took him to the doctor? Guess who took care of him the next day. If it had been the second son, he lives with his fiance. And, so it goes.
     
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  15. Westexas

    Westexas

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    It’s been creeping up slowly. Not surprising with fewer new cases.

    Of course, this assumes the numbers are accurate.
     
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  16. catman71

    catman71 Spewer of TROOF

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    I know they changed the way they are counting new cases.

    they are deliberately not counting most of them so the rest of the world doesn’t freak out when they decided they are losing to much money and sent their slaves back to work
     
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  17. Trucker3573

    Trucker3573

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    Not sure I totally get what you are saying. I would say look at who could have infected a plane full of strangers.


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  18. DNA

    DNA

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    Exactly! In Africa, they were having issues with Ebola due to this (and burial rites/passages). Which is probably why the CCP is so insistent on the quarantine camps, and carting off the bodies to the crematoriums ASAP.

    Dan
     
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  19. DNA

    DNA

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    I did on Friday. Here's what I gleaned.

    So according to a published paper (Journal of the American Medical Association) of a case study of 138 hospitalized patients with the Novel Coronavirus (now named COVID-19) which led to Novel Coronavirus Infected pneumonia (NCIP) in Wuhan.

    They are estimating a Ro of approximately 2.2 and average incubation period of 5.2 days (95% of cases were between 4.1-7 days).

    NCIP patients (people who have COVID-19 and progress to pneumonia) from 1st symptom (of pneumonia) to shortness of breath (5 days), admission to Chinese hospital (7 days) to ARDS (8days) with an approximate 4.3% mortality rate in this cluster. They estimate 41% of patients became infected at the hospital (both staff and patients).

    98.6% of victims had fever, 70.3% had depressed lymphocyte counts, 69.6% experienced fatigue, 59.4% experienced a dry cough.

    Nonsurvivors had lab abnormalities similar to SARS and MERS, lymphocyte count continue to decrease and had higher neutrophil counts (type of cell your body uses to heal, possibly related to the cytokine storms mentioned earlier in the thread) until death occured.

    Dan
     
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  20. bdcochran

    bdcochran

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    On Tuesday, Liu Zhiming, director of the Wuchang hospital in Wuhan, the city at the center of the outbreak, himself died of the virus, according to a statement released by local government authorities.
    Liu was a neurosurgeon and the most senior health worker known to have died as a result of the coronavirus epidemic.

    Also - tps://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-51541801