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The worst panic yet....

  1. I’ve grown up around guns since I was yay tall. Got my first 22 when I was probably 12 or 13. Bought my first handgun when I turned 21 and have been in and out of it since.

    We’ve seen panics before in the last ten years. Sandy hook, elections and the list could go on. The 22 shortage a few years back or so.

    I got back into the gun thing again the last couple months, fine time to pick apparently. This has to be the worst panic too date I’ve ever seen.

    Trying to find a case of 9mm or 45 today has been a wild ride. 9mm brass has generally been the same price as 45 stuff I’ve found. Best deal I found on a case of 9mm through ammo seek was some Blazer brass iirc for 260$ in stock. Click the link for Natchez, yep in stock! Grab my card and go to put it in the cart within 30 seconds.... sold out! Had the same thing happen with a case of PMC elsewhere.

    My buddy has a Dillion press and I haven’t even dove into looking for supply’s to roll my own, I’m afraid too now.

    Got a email notification for a glock back in stock the other day on grab a gun. Time stamp on the email to when I saw it was about fifteen minutes.... sold out!

    I think the rest of the year now is FUBAR, after that could still be questionable. Maybe when the smoke clears the used market will be flooded from all the first timers that felt the need to arm up and feel safe again.

    Maybe I’m all wrong but this has a uncertain feeling this time. If you find something you wanted you probably should snatch it up. I’ve been finding mags in stock, probably a good tome to grab some extras of those since you can’t get much else.
     
  2. Best thing I did in the last 12 months was build my AR pistols. Im glad I did not wait any longer (did it in December).

    Its not looking good.
     

  3. I hear ya, AR’s aren’t my favorite thing. Have one I built about five years ago and put together another lower a couple years ago. Few months back I was looking at palmetto uppers and thought I really should grab one and finish that damn thing. I didn’t but have been kicking myself since over that.
     
  4. PSA had uppers for like $180 and I didn't buy. They went up to $210 and I said I'd wait until they want back down to $180 again. They didn't go back down to $180. :(
     
  5. You guys slept through your economics classes in college? Slept through college altogether?

    The gun companies are having a banner year. Gun sales are breaking all records. New gun buyers are flooding into gun stores after awakening out of their complacent slumber.

    New gun buyers, do what? They buy ammo. They're buying ammo. Ammo manufacturers are having a banner year.

    As we speak, gun manufacturers are ramping up to get product out to meet the demand. Ditto ammo companies.

    Be patient. It'll calm down.

    I have a business degree with an accounting major. I only say that because in 2011 I had an assignment to review any major corporation's 10K statement. I chose Smith and Wesson.

    I analyzed their balance sheets from 2006 through 2010. A good barometer of a corporation's liquidity is Cash and Cash Equivalents. In 2006, S&W C&CE totaled $731,000. That’s not good for a corporation the size of S&W.

    Heading into the election in 2007, (the panic was already starting) and their C&CE jumped to $4,065,000. In 2008 it increased to $4,359,000.

    Get this, in 2009, C&CE skyrocketed to $39,822,000. That's a monster increase. That figure remained roughly the same for 2010.

    Smith and Wesson executives actually admitted that the improvement in their financial position was 100% attributable to Obama. (S&W 10K report of 2011, page 20, item 1A filed on 6/30/2011).

    [Begin quote]
    “Political and other factors also can affect our performance. For example, we experienced strong consumer demand for our handguns and modern sporting rifle products beginning in our third fiscal quarter ended January 31, 2009, following a new administration taking office in Washington, D.C., speculation surrounding increased gun control…….” [End quote]

    O'Bummer left office and things calmed down and next we knew? Gun companies are in trouble again and there's a glut of used guns on the market once new buyers realized they had overpaid.

    Be patient. It'll calm down.

    Here's an article about Ruger and Smith and Wesson having a good year.

    https://www.newsmax.com/t/finance/a...firearms&year=2020&month=07&date=02&id=975338
     
  6. I did a year of college and said no. Im a numbers kind of guy but the whole office thing isnt me.

    That is an insane increase for S&W. Who knew Democrats were the best gun salesmen?

    I hope we get back soon. I want to buy guns for the sake of buying guns.
     
  7. Wjen was that? Last I saw them they were about 300 at best with a bolt.
     
  8. Always hated math and numbers, tried college it wasn’t my thing.

    I am smart enough to know I’ve seen more stuff out of stock now than ever before. Hell even most of your medium and larger frame revolvers this time, never thought I’d see that.

    Want ammo? Hope you like Steele cased stuff that cost pre panic brass prices. Find a good deal on brass and I’ll bet money you get beat somehow.

    End of the day some CEO’s are laughing all the way to the bank.
     
  9. Feb 1, I ordered a AR15 pistol for under $500.
    .308 ammo for my AK at $.30 per round delivered (today it’s $.49 each)
    7.62x39 ammo at $.19 per round delivered (today it’s .29 each)
    9mm ball ammo at $.19 Per round delivered (today it’s nonexistent)

    just bonkers at the increases if you can even find it available.
     
  10. And it was all caused by BLM. Will these companies that got rich in the last 4 months send a thank you card to BLM?

    If you think its rough right now... hang in there...
    November 2020 thru January 2021 is gonna be a real bumpy ride.
     
  11. $180 was like a year ago. $210 was around Christmas.
     

  12. I think the Rona started it, the BLM was just the icing on the cake.
     
  13. My local FFL’s tell me this year has been the busiest they have ever experienced.

    Their racks are empty and gums get sold before they hit the display case.
     
  14. But what about their teef... :dunno::laughing:
     
  15. I’ve been looking for a set of Magpul MBUS but I’m having difficulty locating it. Seems the entire AR accessory market has been hit quite hard as well.
     
  16. I've always made sure I had plenty of what I need (notice I didn't say enough because what is enough ammo anyway?), but I've been able to purchase guns and ammo recently for normal prices. I haven't been interested in much, but I finally bought a Ruger 57 after being on a waiting list for some time, Beretta 92G Elite LTT and a few bundles of 9mm ammo. My closest LGS has next to barren shelves, but at least they have some guns and seem to stay quite busy. The only good thing about this particular panic is it's showing many people the importance of having a firearm for self defense. Some people who never owned a gun before bought them during other panics, but it seems everyone wants something for protection due to the lack of police presence and the local governments letting criminals do whatever they want.
     
  17. I agree
     
  18. Good news is that this time it's new gun owners who are finally getting why 2A and taking charge of their own defense is critical that are causing a lot of the pinch. And it's putting the lie to decades of lefties telling us we don't need guns in this modern, enlightened age of 'summers of love'.

    Cold comfort to you, though. Your timing on getting in to guns stinks, but keep looking, make friends with local gun store. You might have to settle initially on a less popular caliber like a revolver in 38/357 or 45acp or 40sw to get something to use. My son just got his first pistol through an LGS in KS. The guy sold him extra ammo to get him going even though 9mm is in short supply. Things become available but disappear quickly when it shows up. As mentioned in previous posts, if you see something for sale, buy it. Hesitating to find better deal will probably leave you empty handed for a while.
     
  19. Well, no law enforcement makes vulnerable people strive to be less vulnerable. Our president gave a good speech last night. Things haven't declined as far as the looney-left would have liked. It will stabilize. The country will go back towards normal more and more in coming weeks. The whole thing encouraged me to step-up my "training" a bit.
    They're still whipping the COVID 19 horse to death, but in November it'll quietly cease-just watch and see.
     
  20. ***** THIS is true, but unfortunately too many of these people don't bother with training, which coujld make for some dangerous situations.
     
  21. Just like in the past panics, primers have dried up in the reloading world. Bullet manufacturers are behind in shipping, but they are shipping.
    I caught some primers in stock at Midsouth and ordered a sleeve (5K). I did a thread here in reloading and the next post 10 minutes later was "they're gone".
     
  22. Once a month, the Jeep group I ride with goes to the range for a day of shooting. Range is always full and people have plenty of ammo. In 2009, I remember being one of three shooters in the entire range each time I went and most were shooting .22lr.

    It may be bad now, but it’s different and shooters are practicing. On my drive to work there is a common shooting area in the desert. Everyday there are multiple cars of people popping off rounds.
     
  23. Big election upcoming, so I don’t see too much slowing down.
     
  24. Unfortunately, we’re probably a year out from any chance of things getting back to normal.

    Best case scenario, Trump wins, there’re more rioting in Nov - March at least. It will take until July for things to settle down, if they do at all.

    If Biden wins, we’re effed. We might come to the point of needing to use our guns instead of collect them/shoot them at the range.

    Personally, I decided I wanted to buy myself a Colt Combat Elite in .45 for my b-day. I’ve bid on a few but refuse to pay more than MSRP. Which probably means I’m not going to be able to get one until my NEXT b-day, or later.

    Considering I don’t have a lot of .45 ammo around right now anyway, it’s probably for the best. But like you guys, I hate waiting.

    Don’t count on a big flood of used guns hitting the market. All these new gun buyers will just put them in the back of their closet, “just in case.”

    The silver lining is that this is a huge infusion of cash for the gun/ammo industry, which had been struggling under the mostly gun-friendly Trump environment. Everyone (except Remington) ought to be swimming in cash. That’s good.
     
  25. Maybe, but I was starting to see some ammo back on the shelves/wholesalers again and a few guns even before the BLM nonsense kicked off. Now even the local shops are looking pretty sparse and we are usually fairly insulated from the gun panics (not ammo, though). Feel like I should run up to my powder and primers store and add more to my stock, even though I'm good to go for a year or more with what I've got.
     
  26. I have a good supply of ammo and reload for 5 calibers. Also have a decent supply of components but I still want more brass, primers and slugs.

    Powdervalley usually has a very large supply of powder and primers. Essentially sold out when I checked yesterday. Midway's selection was slim and ended up paying a $12 premium for a 1000 primer box of Federal Match small pistol. Don't need match primers for shooting semi autos at CCW ranges of from bad breath range to 15yds.

    Newbies aren't into reloading so I'm surprised at the number of places that are wiped out of almost everything. Don
     
  27. I just got into 6.5 Grendel and if small rifle primers get much rarer I might have to scavenge some of my primed .300 BLK brass to keep me going.

    Then again, I scavenged my .300 BLK upper to finish my Grendel upper, so it makes sense.
     
  28. This!

    It will calm down, however, don't expect that until about the second quarter of next year. There are still three different 'situations to get through;

    • Right now you still have the MSM oscillating back and forth between Covid and riots (er, I mean peaceful protests). They will push the fear and gin up stats until election time.
    • You'll have the normal pre-election panic buying for those that don't understand President Trump will win re-election in an overwhelming land slide.
    • Then you'll have whatever paid protests are still left over (haven't been arrested yet) around President Trump's second inauguration.
    Then it will take a few months to get back to normal. By that time the gun and ammo compaines (who have been pumping out guns and ammo as fast as they can to milk this latest gravy train) will start to have a glut in inventory. So then the prices will come down. On top of this you'll have the sheep that panicked, bought a gun(s) and ammo at gouger-pricing try to dump both for whatever they can get on the used market. Oh, they'll try to get top dollar but by that time the floor will be falling out of the market. So I figure about a year from now, perhaps a little sooner and it will be time to go shopping.

    Fortunately, those that knew this was coming were already stocked up in both categories. And they knew well enough not to just have ONE go-to caliber of choice. Those that didn't learn the lesson from the last go-around and those that are new to the thought process are paying for those decisions.
     
  29. I went on SGAmmo's web site recently and was shocked by what I saw. Just about every 9mm item they carry was out of stock. Been buying from them for about 7 years now and it's never been like that.

    My wife used to give me a hard time when I would bring home a 100 round box of WWB for $18 every time we went to Walmart last year. She's now happy I did.
     
  30. Back when Walmart was getting rid of all those 'scary' calibers I helped them clean their shelves ;)

    Most ammo was 50% and I took advantage of it.

    This is why I've been saying for a LONG time, it isn't wise to have only one go-to caliber. Particularly if it's 9mm. 9mm is a GREAT caliber that has a LOT of pluses but the fact that everyone uses it (military, police, private citizens) is a negative for times such as this. That is why I was happy to see the 40 S&W 'supposedly' fall out of favor. That was the EXACT time to jump into a 40 S&W platform and ammo. Let the sheep follow the latest trend. As a result, 40 platforms were available en mass and often for bargain basement prices. And while 9mm ammo is pretty scarce right now (and significantly jacked up in price when you do find it) the 40 S&W is not nearly as bad off. I just ordered 500 rounds yesterday at about the same as WM pricing when they had it.
     
  31. Some of the manufacturers were forced to shut down by state governors EOs, others shut down by infected workers add in the newbies buying anything they can get and it has been insane.
     
  32. Trust the supply chain...
    The guns and ammo will come back ..
    Most of the folks panic buying now are going to get one or two guns, a box of ammo, and that's it.
     
  33. I cast and reload. All pistol calibers cost < $.05 a round.

    I’m not saying this to be an *ss*hole... well, maybe a little bit...

    I’m saying it to point out that if you want to be FULLY prepared, you should reload. Even if you get yourself a cheap Lee single stage press, one set of dies, a $20 digital scale, a $20 hand primer and $10 calipers, you can hand load. Sure, it will be slow and tedious, but, you can still do it and if we’re in a true SHTF scenario, you’ll probably have plenty of time.

    Oh, and as far as guns being scarce, well, buy early and buy often.
     
  34. There are many factors.
    Supply and demand, as well as inflation, transportation, labor, and materials costs, which includes tariffs and regulations, immigration. Healthcare costs go up 20% every year.
    You cannot expect to pay prices from 10 years ago.

    Silly people still expect AKs to cost $400. Glocks have stayed the same price for over 10 years.
     
  35. It seems that earlier panic attacks were fueled by people who feared that they would no longer be permitted to buy guns/ammo so they decided to buy it while they could. Today people are fearing for their lives, especially in areas where the quislings are considering getting rid of the cops. There is an urgency that wasn't there before - people sense that this time it's for real.
     
  36. Another indicator is wait times for background checks. Here in Colorado, we have an “instant check” system, Run by the state, and it usually takes about five minutes or so. I bought a gun the other day, and the background check is taking three days, and I have heard cases of up to a week. That’s how backed up they are.
     
  37. Things here in CO are improving because I waited 8 days back in March.
     
  38. It's so crazy busy that I got the first delay I have ever had yesterday on a 19 gen 5 mos. The shop I bought from said they have had 4 times as many delays this week over what they normally had. There was a state trooper that got delayed as well yesterday. Its insane right now. I look for nics to crash any day now due to volume.
     
  39. I don't know. I consider myself fully prepared and I don't reload. I guess it depends on your definition of "fully prepared".
     
  40. Bingo.

    This round of panic buying is so much worse because people that never owned guns before are panicked and afraid of what's coming. Sadly, most of them will continue to vote for the very people that are trying to destroy their very way of life.
     
  41. While I do believe being a reloader is somewhat of a hedge against supply shortages, even there you have to buy and think ahead.
    Over the last 30 years or so there have been about 5 times primers and powder supplies got really scarce.
    When ammo companies ramp up production of factory ammo, the supply of primers especially available for reloading takes a big hit.
    While I can make do with lots of different powders ( in a pinch in revolver calibers like 38 special and 45 colt I can even run black powder or substitutes like pyrotechnics) and bullets from various sources never seem to dry up ( and firing up a casting pot and melting lead solves that issue anyway) primers are the critical item.
     
  42. From one perspective I see the empty shelves as a good thing.

    We have a bunch of new gun owners. Some will still vote Dem, but some of them may have seen the light. Perhaps we have some people that will take a look at the riots pushed by the left and LEO constrained by the left and decide it is against their self interest to vote for those that will disarm them.
     
  43. You would hope some of them would have a ahhhhhh moment and see the damn light finally. Maybe not but one could only hope. Just hope all these newbs get some kind of training, there’s a influx of idiots out there with new hardware.
     
  44. Fingers crossed
     
  45. [​IMG]

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  46. A friend that owns a gun shop said that a distributor that he usually buys 50-60 handguns per week from had 57 total handguns in stock this week. Things are definitely tough here. I am more into revolvers myself so I was ok for awhile but now even they are gone.
     
  47. Come on this is nonsense. Primers are 5 cents, powder a few cents. Unless you have a buddy in a tire store, wheel weights are not available at fair prices and casting lead is expensive. A $10 caliper isn't worth having. Less than 5 cents a round, not in this universe. Don
     
  48. Yep, pretty much everything is flying off the shelf right now.
     
  49. I’m prepared for the possibility there is NO ammo to buy.

    Yes, I could run out of components (primers and powder), but, that will be quite a ways out for me.
     
  50. ain't nothing out there except high end AR's