The latest COVID-19 deniers argument...

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by HollowHead, Mar 29, 2020.

  1. ray9898

    ray9898

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    Ahhh....another critical thinker so ignorant they dont realize you can't compare end of season numbers of one virus with those of one still in its infancy to make any sort of conclusion.
     
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  2. Dave514

    Dave514

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    The accident. If he hadn't had it....he'd be alive.

    Same thing with the C19. If smoker Tom hadn't gotten it...he'd still be alive that 4th day.

    Your rationale could be used for a million things.

    A guy with vertigo what falls off a ladder didn't die from vertigo. He died from the head trauma.

    A tall person who gets clipped by a helicopter blade, while the short guy next to him doesn't, isn't going to have the cause of death listed as "Too Tall".

    Nobody is saying that there aren't contributing factors in these C19 death. Age related immune system health has been at the forefront of their discussion about risk. But if you think for 1 second that the guy who gets C19 and dies 4 days later in a bronchial pool of mucus isn't to be listed as a C19 death then you're out of your gourd.
     
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  3. Dave514

    Dave514

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    But then again you actually DO think the earth is flat. You DO think the moon landings were fake. You DO think that nobody has been to space. And you DO think that there are no satellites orbiting the earth.

    So when you say things like "It's never been proven that a virus has caused disease in a human. Many people feel that germ theory is wrong." it's pretty comforting to just know that these are the least of the insane things you purport.
     
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  4. SCHADENFREUDE

    SCHADENFREUDE

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    The stupidity of the American people is what will lead this being far worse than anywhere else in the world. When 9/11 happened you gave away your freedoms. The Boston bombing you hid in your house for two half wits with pressure cookers. IN 2008 you gave away your financial wealth to the bankers and the .gov. But when a deadly virus hits it is all a joke and you are free.

    They should have left everything open. It would have culled the herd.
     
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  5. pblanc

    pblanc

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    Thank you. My deletion was a result of an error on my point. My recommendation would be to pay attention to what PicardMD has posted and what DrVlad posted earlier in this thread.

    There is still way too much that is unknown about this virus and about how the human population will respond to it to make any solid predictions regarding eventual outcomes such as mortality rates. I have no inside knowledge but I have had a long career in medicine and have taken graduate level coursework in biostatistical analysis and some basic epidemiology. What I know about this particular pandemic is solely based on what I have gleaned from the internet.

    Here are some scattered thoughts.

    Of course there are politicians and members of the media who are promoting disinformation and trying to use this pandemic as a weapon for political gain and I find that to be disgusting. But that does not mean that anybody who sees this pandemic as a very serious event is "fearmongering". It is very clearly "worse than the flu" both in terms of case fatality rates and the potential chaos it could create as the virus propagates through the population. If you ask any of the health care workers who are currently involved with treating infected individuals in a variety of urban hot spots they will tell you they never saw anything like this with seasonal influenza.

    Many are banking on the hope that the eventual case fatality rate will turn out to be much lower than it currently is when previously undetected infections become documented in individuals who had mild or no symptoms as testing becomes widespread. I hope they are right but I have been following case fatality rates in a number of US states and countries and the case fatality rates seem to be stabilizing despite the fact that more people are presumably being tested. The only sizable population that I can get a handle on that is known to have been tested extensively is South Korea, which as of this Wednesday had tested close to 1% of its population including many who were completely asymptomatc. That would ordinarily be considered a quite large and presumably representative sample in epidemiology. And they are still reporting a case fatality rate of 1.6% as of today.

    So I am not sure that when testing becomes more widely available in the US that we are going to find a sufficient number of previously unknown cases that manifested few or no symptoms to drop that present case fatality rate by an order of magnitude. And an order of magnitude drop in the case fatality rate would not even get it quite down to that of seasonal influenza.

    The real question is what is going to happen down the road as this virus propagates itself through the general population. The notion that we can somehow contain and eradicate it at this point is a forlorn hope. The cork is out of the bottle and even with testing and self-quarantine I do believe that eventually a majority of the US population will be exposed to it. How many become ill will depend on many factors as yet unknown. These include, as DrVlad pointed out, whether or not the population will be able to develop sufficient collective adaptive immunity to the virus, how effective and how long-lasting that immunity might be, and how quickly that might develop. Baring the emergence of some highly efficacious treatment regimens I think it likely that the virus will continue to spread until either sufficient 'herd immunity" has developed to impair its effective propagation, or an effective vaccine becomes widely available.

    It will help a great deal if the transmission rate of this virus proves to be as seasonal as the influenza viruses but that remains to be seen.

    If the virus does eventually spread throughout most of the US population, a lot of people are going to become ill and a considerable number will die. If half the US population contracts this virus before a vaccine or collective adaptive immunity stops it, a case fatality rate even as low as 0.1% (which I think is very optimistic) would still kill over 165,000 Americans. And that would assume that our health delivery resources do not become overwhelmed in the meantime because that would surely make the case fatality rate much worse.

    When this pandemic began, based on what I could learn from the internet from the sources that seemed to be most credible, my wild guess as to what the US mortality rate might be in a "best case" scenario was at least twice the death toll from influenza during a bad flu season, say 100,000 to 120,000 with the potential to be much worse. Thus far, I haven't seen anything to cause me to change that estimate.
     
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  6. Maxx702

    Maxx702 Rottweilers making America great again!

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    **** it, you are right. We should shut all the small businesses down, tank the stock market, encourage the rabid media to scare the ignorant masses to buy up all the toilet paper and demand China Virus test kits. The government can print more money and save us all.
     
  7. Glockman4

    Glockman4

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    I had something similar in January. Started on New Year’s Eve with a headache and fever. Kept coming and going for weeks, ended with swollen tonsils and a sore throat which was negative for strep. Little bit of bronchitis too. I didn’t feel completely ok again until the first week of February.
     
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  8. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

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    Making a dumb post, then being corrected, then questioning the correction is pretty stupid.
     
  9. MLM

    MLM

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    I work with a guy who doesn't believe the virus is real, that we're being lied to and manipulated by globalists for world domination. Or some-such, I tend to tone him out. He's a firm believer in chemtrails, 5g radiation, smart meter radiation, etc.
     
  10. Biggy1

    Biggy1

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    We really only know what they (fill in the blank) tells us. How much is Truth and how much is lies, who *really* knows.
     
  11. berto62

    berto62

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    IMO we are worried about the wrong number. I'm much more concern about the number of people that are sick enough from covid 19 to be hospitalized. The idea that I might get a serious illness or accident and not be able to get treatment because the hospital is full of Wu flu patience concerns me more than dying from this flu.
     
  12. UncleDave

    UncleDave

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    Things become problematic when people don't use their brains. Numbers are presented in ways that elicit an intended response from the viewer, thus we need to do a better job of disseminating the information we are being given. When we look at charts and numbers, we need to understand the context.

    For example, when we see 100,000 confirmed cases and 1,500 deaths, we immediately assume the death rate is 1.5%, but that's just the death rate in the context of confirmed cases, not total actual infections. We have no way of knowing the latter, but we understand the number is naturally much higher than confirmed cases, meaning that 1.5% is not accurate. This pandemic is still in progress, so comparing it to flu seasons that have come and gone is moot.

    When we see the number of confirmed cases rising, we need to see those numbers in the context of the number of tests being performed, which have also increased over time as more tests become available. Just looking at big red numbers or sharply rising graphs doesn't tell the whole picture. It is, however, quite successful in causing people to panic.

    Another reason why comparing COVID-19 to the Flu doesn't make sense is the fact that both the virulence and timeline for each disease is different. Compared to the Flu, the SARS-CoV-2 virus spreads faster due to 1) its ability to survive longer outside the human body, and 2) the increased duration of the contagious period, including incubation and recovery. It should be safe to surmise that more people worldwide will be infected by this novel virus than the Flu, perhaps by orders of magnitude, and even with a lower morbidity rate, the total number of infections and deaths could match or exceed the Flu when it's over.

    Another problem due to this novel virus' timeline is that, given the elevated rate of infections and longer recovery period, even if the severity of symptoms matches that of the flu, the number of patients concurrently needing care would be orders of magnitude higher. This is why hospitals are concerned about becoming over-stressed.

    Yes, there is a lot of scare-mongering and sensationalism associated with media reporting and political action regarding this virus. We can't let that detract from the seriousness of this pandemic, nor should we eschew common sense or willingly destroy the economy over it. If we are to emerge from this crisis intact, we must adopt a balanced approach to both public health and economic stability, which unfortunately at this point in time, it doesn't appear that we are.
     
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  13. HarlDane

    HarlDane

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    Sorry, but that isn't even remotely true.
     
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  14. The_Dan

    The_Dan The underscore is silent

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    I too work with incredibly educated and reasonable people... many who apparently have quite the interest in epidemiology and bioscience. It makes my day to hear them babble on with their opinions supported by completely made up evidence they likely heard from the amateur infectious disease expert that sits right next to them...or their drunk Uncle between cold ones.

    Normally around this time of year I get to hear them discussing various strategies that would allow them to NOT file a tax return and “there ain’t nothin they can do about it”. On one hand it has been nice to not hear that...but the self proclaimed Coronavirus experts are really starting to wear me out.
     
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  15. Wayward Son

    Wayward Son

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    Lot more to the stock market tanking than the China flu.
     
  16. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    Right. Because it's not a flu virus.
     
  17. JLA

    JLA

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    Taking a chance on your life is one thing but taking a chance on someone else’s is another.
     
  18. Colt M-4

    Colt M-4 AK-74 Silver Member

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    Maybe it is like the Walking Dead Theory, Everybody has already been infected and we all have it. And now the symptoms are coming out. Kind of like we never knew the crazy madhatters are out there till Trump was elected President.And it all was released to see from gov, To all high offices...to the Lunch lady.

    it was just under the radar now laid bare for all to hear and see.

    I survived Mumps, Measles,Chicken Pox, colds and flu,Gun fire. freaking gall bladder, Hernia, Heart and Big C.

    And now have to worry about this ****e.
    Things ain't working out for me today Harry Pierpont from Dillinger. 1973
     
  19. G30SF/F-250

    G30SF/F-250 Pinky Out Platinum Member

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    Yep
     
  20. ranger1968

    ranger1968

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    Chemtrails.