The latest COVID-19 deniers argument...

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by HollowHead, Mar 29, 2020.

  1. pblanc

    pblanc

    Messages:
    1,588
    Likes Received:
    3,197
    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    Well as for yesterday's covid-19 death toll we certainly have a very good estimate for the US since they are all reportable cases. Yesterday there were 525 new deaths reported to the CDC attributed to covid-19.

    As for seasonal influenza, we really don't know since states do not require non-pediatric deaths due to influenza to be reported to the CDC. But we can make some scientific wild ass guesses.

    Normally seasonal influenza has a peak season that goes from sometime in late December through March with a peak sometime in January or February. That peak incidence can vary by a few weeks each "flu season". It is possible to get influenza other times of the year, but the likelihood falls off very dramatically. Each flu season, the great majority of cases occur during a six to eight week or so period with a three to four week build up to peak, and three to four weeks of a dramatically decreasing rate.

    It has been estimated that this flu season approximately 50,000 or so Americans might die of influenza. That is and will remain an estimate but if true it would make this a pretty bad (certainly worse than average) flu season. At this point, influenza cases should be dropping off dramatically and most cases will have occurred. If we assume an overall mortality of 50,000 for this flu season and assume that 90% of those deaths will occur over a three month time frame then the daily death rate over those three months would average around 500 per day. But by this time of year I think we can assume that the peak has passed and influenza deaths yesterday would be considerably lower than that.
     
  2. clancy

    clancy Oh, for a muse of fire

    Messages:
    8,134
    Likes Received:
    14,654
    Joined:
    Feb 16, 2011
    But if it's no worse than the flu why are so many dying?
     

  3. HJB

    HJB Banned

    Messages:
    1,500
    Likes Received:
    1,593
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2020
    Just watching Cuomo with some interesting data.

    NY was doubling cases every 2 days a week or 10 days ago, then went to double every 3 days, the every 4.7 days, and today it is double every 6 days. Seems like a very positive trend to me maybe.
     
    jame, happyguy and M&P15T like this.
  4. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

    Messages:
    19,128
    Likes Received:
    13,061
    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2004
    No, that is not a fact.
     
    jame, NoStress, G30SF/F-250 and 3 others like this.
  5. Joshhtn

    Joshhtn The eBay Guy Gold Member

    Messages:
    19,169
    Likes Received:
    38,008
    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2009
    Location:
    Middle Tennessee
    Covid-deniers are much like flat-earthers. Tons of evidence to support it, yet it's never good enough for them.

    Some of them are just trolling, much like they do for every subject on GT, but others (otherwise intelligent folks) are either just being intentionally obtuse, or simply won't/can't admit that they were wrong...
     
    jame, badge315, AdamRodgers and 6 others like this.
  6. DrVlad

    DrVlad Millennium Member

    Messages:
    848
    Likes Received:
    1,633
    Joined:
    Aug 4, 1999
    Location:
    LA , USA
    Spot on summary TeeCeeTx!


    Anyone claiming it is no more deadly than the flu doesn’t understand epidemiology. Epidemiology considers, and accounts for, the fact that many infected remain undetected, as well as that the application of protective measures alter the actual daily mortality rates.

    You are correct faawrenchbndr, those are accurate. We do actually have quite accurate mortality rates on influenza mortality based on decades of monitoring this illness worldwide, including vast numbers of studies, many involving EMR databases.


    However, there is an elephant in the room generally escaping notice of most but the epidemiologist. Coronoviridae are zoonotic organisms, and as such being relatively novel to humans, we have no adaptive immunity to them. So not only is COVID 19 twice as contagious as the flu ( R0 flu=1.13, R0 COVID19=2.28) and has a mortality of ~15 theme that of the flu( a conservative estimate), BUT, being new to the human immune system, WE DONT KNOW EXACTLY HOW THE POPULATION AT LARGE WILL RESPOND IMMUNOLOGICALLY. Will some people simply have an individual immunity? Will some of those exposed develop antibodies without illness and become immune? Will those recovering from infection become immune in the future? All of these factors are known entities regarding seasonal influenza. The unknowns do COVID 19, combined with factors of contagion and mortality, created a reasonable abundance of caution.
     
    Westexas, badge315, NoStress and 7 others like this.
  7. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

    Messages:
    19,128
    Likes Received:
    13,061
    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2004
    More BS statistics. The actual number killed in motor vehicle crashes per day in the US has averaged roughly 100, give or take a few, over the past 10 years.
     
  8. HJB

    HJB Banned

    Messages:
    1,500
    Likes Received:
    1,593
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2020
    Not sure where the data is coming from but the date I find when I google it supports the 3,287 per day. Where is your data coming from please ?
     
  9. mdlott

    mdlott

    Messages:
    2,681
    Likes Received:
    4,635
    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2010
    The 3287 number is WORLDWIDE, not US.
     
  10. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

    Messages:
    19,128
    Likes Received:
    13,061
    Joined:
    Jan 8, 2004
  11. jetflier1989

    jetflier1989

    Messages:
    307
    Likes Received:
    339
    Joined:
    Nov 9, 2012
    Location:
    Land of the Free-Home of the Brave
    Yes it was the virus that ultimately killed him. But with underlying health and lifestyle issues that were contributing factors.

    ie, the vehicle left the roadway and struck a tree where the driver was killed upon impact. Weather conditions were night time with fog producing poor visibility. The highway the vehicle was traveling on was dark and unlit with icy road conditions. Through investigation, measured skid and tire yaw marks using a drag factor of 0.78 determined the vehicle was traveling at a speed of 50 mph over the posted speed limit of 35 mph. Toxicology reports showed the operator was impaired with a BAC level of 0.15.

    Question: which single factor out of the ones listed in the accident killed the operator?
     
  12. HJB

    HJB Banned

    Messages:
    1,500
    Likes Received:
    1,593
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2020
    Yes, I think that is correct, that is world wide. Thanks
     
  13. HJB

    HJB Banned

    Messages:
    1,500
    Likes Received:
    1,593
    Joined:
    Feb 7, 2020
  14. pblanc

    pblanc

    Messages:
    1,588
    Likes Received:
    3,197
    Joined:
    Dec 17, 2007
    delete
     
    APERS likes this.
  15. PEC-Memphis

    PEC-Memphis Scottish Member

    Messages:
    10,293
    Likes Received:
    8,406
    Joined:
    Oct 19, 2006
    Location:
    Doh ?
    And yet a small town, pop ~850, in Arkansas (where I have a house) has at least 34 positive tested cases.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
  16. SDGlock23

    SDGlock23 JABRONI AUTIST

    Messages:
    7,359
    Likes Received:
    1,392
    Joined:
    Jan 7, 2005
    Location:
    Boogaloo HQ
    I do deny the Covid-19 stuff, it's a preplanned event. Under Obama, H1N1 killed many more Americans yet nothing like this occured. The Swine Flu, back about 10 years or so ago, killed way more people worldwide and yet nothing of this magnatude. Want to see something fishy? This occurred not long ago and wouldn't you know it, it's now "reality" http://www.centerforhealthsecurity.org/event201/ It was a global pandemic exercise held in October 2019. All of this is fake. It's garbage. In the 2017-2018 flu season, 80,000 Americans died from the flu...80,000.

    Bill Gates has a hard on for vaccinations and even talks about created viruses and how vaccinations can help to reduce world population. Plus it's never been proven that a vaccination has helped anyone. People who regularly get the flu shot are more likely to get the flu as well.

    I don't know anybody that has CV nor does anyone I know or work with know anybody, yet they've locked down the world by literally scaring people through 24/7 fear porn on television. The tests to confirm Covid 19 aren't exactly accurate and well known for giving false postitives and for what it's worth, millions of people are regularly misdiagnosed by physicians, it's actually one of the leading causes of death in America, simple misdiagnosis.

    Plus, is a virus a living thing that is contagious? A virus is the result of a toxin or even vitamin deficiency, it's not the cause of sickness. It's never been proven that a virus has caused disease in a human. Many people feel that germ theory is wrong. After the 1918 Spanish flu, they tried to give the flu to healthy people by taking snot from sick people and putting it in the eyes, nose and mouth of healthy people, even injecting them, yet none got sick.

    My point? Until people around me are dropping like flies and/or turning into zombies, I'll keep on living life normally because THERE IS NOTHING TO FEAR. Turn off your televisions, that'll kill Covid 19 faster than anything.


    View: https://youtu.be/HQQtOQUkUoI
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
    JohnH likes this.
  17. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

    Messages:
    30,330
    Likes Received:
    16,976
    Joined:
    Sep 4, 2009
    Location:
    U.S.A.
    Lunacy, even if you are joking (which I suspect you are not).

    Ignored forever.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
    MB-G26, Westexas, jame and 7 others like this.
  18. mdlott

    mdlott

    Messages:
    2,681
    Likes Received:
    4,635
    Joined:
    Jul 23, 2010
    Please post whenever and whatever you choose. You're obviously in the know and your thoughts are appreciated.
     
    NoStress, G30SF/F-250 and OGW like this.
  19. Joshhtn

    Joshhtn The eBay Guy Gold Member

    Messages:
    19,169
    Likes Received:
    38,008
    Joined:
    Mar 31, 2009
    Location:
    Middle Tennessee
    Oh my....
     
    badge315, NoStress, clancy and 7 others like this.
  20. OGW

    OGW SAF

    Messages:
    10,614
    Likes Received:
    19,590
    Joined:
    Aug 23, 2004
    Location:
    N.W. Lower Michigan
    Yup. Ol' PW and a couple others are getting some company now.
     
    badge315 and G30SF/F-250 like this.