The latest COVID-19 deniers argument...

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by HollowHead, Mar 29, 2020.

  1. pblanc

    pblanc

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    Its really very simple. It is called mathematics.

    The case fatality rate is the percentage of confirmed cases that result in death. The current observed case fatality rate in the US is 4059 deaths/188,647 confirmed cases = .0215 which is the same as 2.15 %. In other words, as of now 2.15% of individuals known to have contracted covid-19 have died from it.

    Here is the source for that figure: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/#countries

    During the H1N1 "swine flu" pandemic the CDC estimated that there had been 60.8 million cases in the US between April 2009 and April 2010. There were nearly 12,500 US deaths during that same time period.

    Here is a source for that information: https://www.livescience.com/covid-19-pandemic-vs-swine-flu.html

    So given those figures from the CDC the US case fatality rate for the H1N1 swine flu pandemic was approximately 12,500 deaths/60,800,000 infections = .0002 which is the same as .02%.

    The observed case fatality rate for covid-19 in the US currently stands at 2.15 % and that for the swine flu was .02%. 2.15/.02 = 107.5. So the observed case fatality rate for covid-19 in the US is currently about 100 times greater than that estimated by the CDC for the H1N1 pandemic. That is not opinion, it is simply what the numbers show.


    Now many are going to say but, but, but that observed case fatality rate for the US is not realistic because there are thousand or even millions of people who have actually already contracted the virus in the US and had minimal symptoms or no symptoms at all and have therefore not yet been tested. If there have been very many undocumented cases of covid-19 that did not result in death and will not result in death, then that observed case fatality rate would certainly eventually drop. That would be a cheery happening and I sincerely hope it comes to pass.

    But consider this. If that were the case, as covid-19 testing becomes more prevalent throughout the US we should be picking up those previously undocumented cases with mild symptoms and the case fatality rate should be expected to continuously drop. Testing has been becoming more widely available. But the US observed case fatality rate has been going up, not down. Last week it was running around 1.6% and now it is 2.15%, a 34% increase from last week.

    Consider also the experience from South Korea. They are about the only country that did extensive population-based testing, including screening in urban areas, that was not limited to individuals with symptoms or those considered to be at higher risk due to travel history or known contacts. So they should have picked up a whole bunch of those mild cases and have a much lower observed case fatality rate.

    Well, South Korea's observed case fatality rate is a bit lower than the current US rate. As of today it is 165 deaths/9887 confirmed cases = .0167 or 1.67%. That is about where the US was a few days ago. It is certainly no where near the 0.1% case fatality rate that many hope will be the eventual CFR for covid-19 in the US when all those thousands of trivial cases show up, that would show that it was no more lethal than plain old influenza. But even an eventual case fatality rate of .1% for covid-19 would still be 5 times what was observed for the swine flu.
     
  2. AK_Stick

    AK_Stick AAAMAD

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    Yes, I agree, I was quoting someone who quoted you and posted some dumb stuff. :cheers:
     
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  3. racerford

    racerford

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    Consider Iceland. They have tested a wider population of people(% wise). Sorry for CNN link.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html
    About 1% tested positive and half of those reported to be without symptoms.
    The US is not even testing all the symptomatic people.
    Our total cases could be 3 million or more What about using cruise ship numbers. Trapped in a petrified dish. What percent got it, what % got sick and how many died with really restricted care.
    People really want to use the worst case scenarios. They want to underestimate our ability to come up with treatments. Every single day they are finding possible new drugs that could effective. Ones that have already been tested for safety.
     
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  4. racerford

    racerford

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    Consider Iceland. They have tested a wider population of people(% wise). Sorry for CNN link.
    https://www.cnn.com/2020/04/01/europe/iceland-testing-coronavirus-intl/index.html
    About 1% tested positive and half of those reported to be without symptoms.
    The US is not even testing all the symptomatic people.
    Our total cases could be 3 million or more What about using cruise ship numbers. Trapped in a petrified dish. What percent got it, what % got sick and how many died with really restricted care.
    People really want to use the worst case scenarios. They want to underestimate our ability to come up with treatments. Every single day they are finding possible new drugs that could effective. Ones that have already been tested for safety.
     
  5. racerford

    racerford

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    I guess you are still getting paid and have not had your pay cut. For those that have it is more than an inconvenience. How many people have or will die because we have basically shutdown normal GP doctors offices? We will not see the end of that for years probably.

    We are destroying the global economy based on scant information. That WILL have ripple impacts on death rates around the world. People will starve because people who aren’t working won’t donate to feed starving people. Doctors aren’t traveling to areas on mercy trips. So this shutdown is having impacts that aren’t being measured. Perhaps the “cure” is causing more deaths than the disease. People are narrowly focused and short sighted.
     
  6. Trucker3573

    Trucker3573

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    We really don’t have it that bad here. The government is giving out immediately needed money and being very generous in the unemployment benefits so I ain’t buying that crap. We will get through this with some due diligence. Not to sound harsh but I really am not concerned with the rest of the world but only with what happens here. This will only go on so long. We will begin to open back up before detrimental economic damage is done.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  7. pblanc

    pblanc

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    The information from Iceland is interesting. Thanks for citing it. But if you read it again, I think you will find that the 1% positive test rate was not for the entire population of Iceland that has been tested. It was for a group of 9000 self-selected people, presumably a random sample. And the statement was "fewer than 1%" although how much fewer is not mentioned. So that would account for fewer than 90 of Iceland's confirmed cases. And that is not a very large sample size on which to base predictions.

    The article also says that as of yesterday, Iceland had tested 17,900 people. Yesterday they had reported a total of 1135 confirmed cases which would indicate a positive test rate of over 6%. But their case fatality rate has been very low so far among those cases. Hopefully that will continue.

    If as many as half of individuals with covid-19 infection are completely asymptomatic, which I think is plausible, it would double the actual case rate without presumably increasing the observed death rate. That would be good news so far as the case fatality rate was concerned because it would cut the CFR in half. But that would only result in a reduction in the current observed US CFR to about 1% from its current level. That could still potentially result in a large number of deaths in the US depending on how many in the population eventually contract it before an effective vaccine becomes widely available. Which probably won't happen before early 2021.

    Of course new treatment regimens might emerge but we don't know how effective they might be or how much they might impact the case fatality rate. The fact is that as of now, the only known effective treatment for established covid-19 infection is supportive care. Many projections suggest a peak in new case reports and deaths to occur in the US sometime within the next month or so. I am doubtful that anything approaching a cure will be found in that short a time frame.

    But a 50% asymptomatic rate for covid-19 would be a double-edged sword as it would mean there were a large number of individuals harboring the virus who did not know they had it. Without self-quarantine this would mean a much more rapid spread of the virus through the general population by asymptomatic individuals which is also pointed out in the article.

    The article also discusses the methods used by Iceland to attempt to limit the spread of the virus. These included early and fairly widespread testing beginning in February as well as contact tracing and what is described as "a very aggressive policy of quarantine for individuals -- suspected to be at risk of having contracted the virus -- for much longer and at a higher scale than most other countries we are aware of."

    Iceland is a geographically small nation with a population that is .1% that of the US, comparable to the population of Honolulu or Anaheim. So even if the requisite number of test kits had been available in the US in February (which they weren't) the logistics to do what Iceland did were not available in this country. And it is highly questionable whether the US population would have gone along with their aggressive contact tracing and prolonged mandated quarantine policy. The next closest thing that could be done in the US are the social distancing measures that have been adopted and which many are screaming about or feel are unnecessary.

    Iceland is attributing their success in containing this pandemic on the measures they took to reduce the spread of the virus through their population. But if you look at their per capita rate of reported cases it is actually much higher than that of the US at this point. In the US there are currently 570 reported cases per million population. In Iceland that figure is 3153 reported cases per million. So I don't think their very low rate of deaths can be attributed to their testing, tracking, and isolation methods. Nor would a 50% asymptomatic rate be enough to account for their very low case fatality rate compared to other nations.
     
    Last edited: Apr 1, 2020
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  8. SDGlock23

    SDGlock23 JABRONI AUTIST

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  9. chuck73080

    chuck73080

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    Wow, if they think carrying a gun around all the time "NOW" is over reacting, imagine how they felt about those of us that EDC'd before the Pandemic.
     
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  10. billy_56081

    billy_56081

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    Have you ever thought, maybe some of these people making these projections and decisions are much smarter than and have much more information about this then you?


     
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  11. Trucker3573

    Trucker3573

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    I didn’t say I believe that for f sakes. Point is that it is better to be over prepared most days for the one day you aren’t. Maybe at the end of this we will realize we didn’t over react.

    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  12. racerford

    racerford

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    Much smarter, no, you don’t know me.

    Much more information, no, they can’t. To have more data they would have to have the results of tests that have not been given, a physical impossibility.
    Come back after they have started geographically widespread random testing. Hen they could have data about actual infection, and death rates. Oh and death rates would maybe be improved if they would stop denying people access to tests and treatment and doctors until they are so sick they have to go to the ER because they can’t breath. What would the death rate from cancer be if we waited until they were at stage 4 to treat them. GP offices aren’t closed, no test until you are severely sick. It is the stupidest treatment pattern I have heard of.
     
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  13. chuck73080

    chuck73080

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    Trucker3573,

    I did not say you believed that, so put your big boy pants on and calm down.

    This is what you said:

    "There is a huge number of people out there that also think carrying a gun around all the time is over reacting."

    My reply was aimed at the "PEOPLE" you were referring to.

    My reply was:

    "Wow, if they think carrying a gun around all the time "NOW" is over reacting, imagine how they felt about those of us that EDC'd before the Pandemic."

    If you reread my qoute, I said "they" not you.

    Whatever your understanding, profanity was not called for, under any circumstances.

    Either you misunderstood my intent, or my communication skills are even worse than I believed.
     
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  14. billy_56081

    billy_56081

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    I pretty much expected the first words you typed. LOL!
     
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  15. Trucker3573

    Trucker3573

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    Lol....no I swear I read if you believe. My bad I’m the dumbarse


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  16. chuck73080

    chuck73080

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    No problem, I'm very familiar with the taste of both my feet:-/
     
  17. AK_Stick

    AK_Stick AAAMAD

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    Over 7k dead and 277K cases now.
     
  18. HollowHead

    HollowHead Firm member

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    But it's just the flu. HH
     
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  19. AK_Stick

    AK_Stick AAAMAD

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    Got up, up to 290k cases and 7.8k deaths in just a few hours
     
  20. pblanc

    pblanc

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    Currently cumulative US cases as of 4/4 are at 302,641 and cumulative US deaths at 8232 with data for today still lacking from 14 states. There were 1328 new deaths reported in yesterday and so far 828 today, so we will almost certainly break 1000 again for the next 24 hour total. Unfortunately, case fatality rate continues to inch up and is now over 2.7%.

    We have had more American deaths from covid-19 in the last 72 hours than occurred on 9/11.

    Although the number of daily reported new cases and deaths appear to still be increasing day to day, if there is any glimmer of hope it is that the doubling interval for cumulative cases and deaths has dropped just a little in recent days. So the rate at which daily new cases and deaths are increasing appears possibly to be declining. The doubling interval for cumulative cases is now closer to 6 days than 5 days where it was a few days back. And the doubling interval for cumulative deaths is closer to 4 days than the 3 of a few days ago.

    An increase in the doubling interval for new cases could have a dramatic effect on the eventual death toll.
     
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