The latest COVID-19 deniers argument...

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by HollowHead, Mar 29, 2020.

  1. .264 magnum

    .264 magnum CLM

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    Stay safe. You've alway been one of my favorites around here. There's a calmness to you that I admire greatly.
     
  2. Kentak

    Kentak

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    [​IMG]
     
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  3. ray9898

    ray9898

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    That is simply false. H1N1 struck in April, the estimated deaths at the end of October, a full 6 month span, was 3900 when a national emergency was declared. COVID is at 61% of that total in under 10 weeks even with this national response.
     
    Last edited: Mar 30, 2020
  4. hugo55

    hugo55

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    I stand corrected by including Carlson with the likes of Hannity ,Limbaugh and the rest of Fox News. I believe he may be the only conservative "news" host that did not continue backing the president when he was telling the American people that cases in the US would soon be down to zero or that the virus would just magically disappear or anyone who wanted a test could get one or that this whole thing was just a hoax perpetrated by the Democrats. People should have been calling for extraordinary measures in January. People expect their leaders to step up during a crisis and lead and also unify our country not make false statements for months and try to blame others for the crisis we are facing
     
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  5. harlenm

    harlenm Millennium Member

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    Thanks. Next three days off, and then back at it. Will probably have 4 days off soon. We also get to leave early occasionally


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
  6. AK_Stick

    AK_Stick AAAMAD

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    New update today now over 3100 deaths in America and 163k cases.
     
  7. OGW

    OGW SAF

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    It's just the flu. Chill............
     
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  8. BobbyS

    BobbyS Truth always sounds like lies to a sinner

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    yup, like I said a few days ago, everyone that dies right now died of CV
     
  9. jame

    jame I don't even know....what I'm doing here....

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    I’m sorry........I just had to post this again.
    9CF9515B-55CB-4FDF-B147-5B2C254450E1.jpeg
     
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  10. chuck73080

    chuck73080

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    I watched Sunday's 20/20 segment on CV-19 and was so impressed by the dedication shown by health workers in the areas shown.

    My worry, is that as the patient numbers increase, understanding how Italy, Spain, Austrailia, etc... have become so overwhelmed by the virus. How long can our health system keep up with demand. And isn't this likely to be a "world crisis".

    I read an article today about Iran, already reeling from economic crisis resulting from the drop in oil prices, has no money to fight CV-19. Many other nations are likely to be in the same boat.

    I have very little faith in our electorate to behave in the heroic fashion that we are seeing from our medical community.

    I believe that there will be some really tough times ahead, I hope I'm wrong.
     
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  11. airmotive

    airmotive Tin Kicker

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    Did the Iranians already blow that 747 full of cash Obama sent them?
     
  12. Gfive45

    Gfive45

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  13. SDGlock23

    SDGlock23 JABRONI AUTIST

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  14. NMG26

    NMG26

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  15. pblanc

    pblanc

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    You are right in that we do not know what the eventual death toll from covid-19 will be in the US and that the country will probably successfully deal with it for the most part. But lets look at a few things we do know with a fair degree of certainty about both the current covid-19 pandemic and the H1N1 swine flu pandemic in the US.

    In the one year period April 12, 2009 - April 10, 2010 there were 60.8 million estimated cases of H1N1 infection in the US resulting in 274,304 hospitalizations and 12,469 deaths for a case fatality ration of .0002 or .02%.

    The first documented case of covid-19 infection in the US was reported on Jan 19, 2020 and the first reported death occurred on Feb 29, 2020 in Washington State. As of today, there have been 3,431 reported US deaths, 28% of the total cumulative death tally from H1N1. New deaths are being reported at a rate of more than 500 a day in the US (558 yesterday and 582 today).

    So in the slightly greater than one month period Feb 29-March 31 covid-19 has killed more than a quarter of the deaths that resulted from H1N1 over a one year period. And the rate of new reported cases per day still appears to be climbing.

    The observed case fatality ratio for covid-19 infections is currently 3,431 deaths/176,518 = .0194 or 1.94%. That is very nearly 100 times the estimated case fatality rate for H1N1. So if you get covid-19 you are approximately 100 times more likely to die than if you had caught H1N1.

    Now for what we don't know, but can make some educated guesses about. Models have suggested that the rate of newly reported cases in the US will not reach an inflection point and start downward before the last half of April in most states, and not until some time in May in others. The inflection point for new deaths per day will logically lag a week or so behind that. If we take 550 as an estimate for daily deaths in the US and assume that will not reach an inflection point until late April and start downward, then the total cumulative death toll for covid-19 in the US will exceed the deaths from H1N1 by April 17th. And that will not be the end of it. Note that the 550 deaths per day would represent a linear increase until inflection, not an exponential one.

    The one sense in which the H1N1 pandemic can be considered to have been worse in that a high percentage of deaths occurred in individuals less than 65 years of age. The opposite appears to be the case for covid-19.
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
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  16. JohnH

    JohnH Millennium Member

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    Thanks for posting. I listened to the whole presentation and my takeaway is epidemiology is fraught with very shaky methodology and has huge potential for drawing false conclusions. This has been borne out many times in the field of nutrition.
     
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  17. racerford

    racerford

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    Did you watch the whole video?

    Unfortunately I spent the 38 minutes. So an alternative healing believing psychiatrist has determined what they are saying is CoVid-19 is not a virus, but an exosome that is fighting a toxin. So it is a result not a cause of the disease.
    He does not ET forth an ideas for treatment or cure. Lots of boring blather for no juice.

    Maybe someone else will get something more out of it. I hope so.
     
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  18. JohnH

    JohnH Millennium Member

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    “So if you get covid-19 you are approximately 100 times more likely to die than if you had caught H1N1.”

    I find that highly unlikely. From what I’ve read in many places it appears to be very benign with many never experiencing any symptoms. From the onset the testing has been highly suspect. Yes, it’s a real thing but the fear mongering and disinformation is totally disproportionate to what is actually known.

    Anecdotally, I have a good friend whose wife is from China. She speaks to her mother back in China at least once a day. Her mother has seen nothing anywhere close to what has been reported. Also, a tenant in my building places doctors in ER rooms all over the country. I asked her this weekend if she had seen an increase in placements for their ER doctors. She said no.
     
  19. Big Bird

    Big Bird NRA Life Member

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    My best friend is a primary care physician here in Louisville and has a book of about 4,000 patients. I asked her last night if she had any positive Covid19 patients and she said not one and she had referred over 30 for testing but not a single positive. In fact she got furloughed today as the health care provider is shutting down all non-essential services and they won't let a patient enter the facility if they have a fever...I'm like WTF? LOL 50% of the doctors are being laid off...and the other 50% are working....how big a healthcare crisis is this really when half the docs and staff are being paid to stay home?
     
    Last edited: Mar 31, 2020
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  20. evlbruce

    evlbruce

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    The Ayatollah has a very comfy bunker.
     
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