We can only hope! http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bread-and-peace-model-says-obama-is-toast-in-november-2012-8 'The Bread and Peace model is perhaps the most successful long term presidential model in United States electoral history." "The model is derived explicitly from fundamentals only. It doesn't bother with the polling, and it doesn't focus on anything besides Real Personal Income Growth, an economic metric, and the number of American casualties in foreign wars." "We ran it with the latest data, and it says that Obama is set to get only 47.2 percent of the popular vote in November."