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https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/worl...MdKOw2Cs4CtT4cmCB1pyMqSEp_79uohguBlUWlqzZFyG4

“According to our modelers, we are starting to see so many immune people in the population in Stockholm that it is starting to have an effect on the spread of the infection,” Anders Tegnell, who led the charge to keep Sweden open, told local media. “Our models point to some time in May.”

Despite social distancing guidelines from the World Health Organization, Sweden has resisted lockdowns, instead keeping open schools, gyms, bars and restaurants and relying on citizens to caution themselves.

Tegnell’s comments echo thoughts about herd immunity, in which most of the population is infected with the assumption that those who survive will not be infected again, floated by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson. But Johnson eventually folded to the advice of health officials and shut down the United Kingdom.

Imagine that. Letting people exercise personal responsibility actually works.
 

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The cynics will point out that the mortality rate per million is much higher in Sweden than other Scandinavian countries. And this is true. But so what. The final number of deaths in Sweden will not be more or less whether Sweden went its current route or locked down the population for 6 months. Its just the rate of mortality that differs, and we have discussed this many times.

I would fully support the application of the Sweden model in the U.S. We seem to be moving that direction as things begin to open up over the next several weeks. It just needs to happen much more quickly.
 

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Your article is dated 4/20, where it said Swedish death was at around 1,500. That number has more than doubled in less than a month and Sweden is paying for it right now. It's also not like Sweden is BAU. They've long banned "gatherings of more than 50 people, kept distance between people in bars and restaurants, and has banned visitors to care homes. With people encouraged to socially distance and work from home, public transport is often empty." It's a culture that was already self-isolated, in parts, from the beginning.

“Our models point to some time in May.” Well, it's May. Here's the current situation. Time will tell.
There's a stark difference between it and its Nordic neighbors: per capita, its rate is almost six times higher than in Norway and more than three times higher than in Denmark.

Tegnell, the state epidemiologist, said on Tuesday [May 6th] that the high death toll has been a surprise, and a source of worry.

He has said that the Public Health Agency isn't sure yet whether the country made the right call, and is constantly monitoring the situation.
 

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Discussion Starter · #5 ·
Your article is dated 4/20, where it said Swedish death was at around 1,500. That number has more than doubled in less than a month and Sweden is paying for it right now. It's also not like Sweden is BAU. They've long banned "gatherings of more than 50 people, kept distance between people in bars and restaurants, and has banned visitors to care homes. With people encouraged to socially distance and work from home, public transport is often empty." It's a culture that was already self-isolated, in parts, from the beginning.

“Our models point to some time in May.” Well, it's May. Here's the current situation. Time will tell.
I understand,

but staying home and locking down businesses is hastening the inevitable destruction of our economy if we continue down that road, and delaying the inevitable truth that herd immunity must be achieved.

We can’t hide from it forever. It makes no difference how long we wait, when we do reopen there is going to be an uptick in cases. Speculation on what that will look like is ludicrous because I don’t think we have any current numbers in the U.S. that are trustworthy.
 

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Make It So!!
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I understand,

but staying home and locking down businesses is hastening the inevitable destruction of our economy if we continue down that road, and delaying the inevitable truth that herd immunity must be achieved.

We can’t hide from it forever. It makes no difference how long we wait, when we do reopen there is going to be an uptick in cases. Speculation on what that will look like is ludicrous because I don’t think we have any current numbers in the U.S. that are trustworthy.
The balance is between waiting long enough so that we have a more effective treatment strategy (which many are coming in the next few weeks/month that you don't hear from the media because of all the political noise) vs rescuing the economy. People on both sides have strong opinions and the balance is somewhere in the middle.

And btw, herd immunity through exposure/catching the disease is actually not very prudent and probably not effective. We don't know if infection/recovery from COVID confers long lasting immunity/protection from future infections. In fact, if previous coronaviruses outbreaks can serve as historical examples, neither SARS nor MERS survivors had long term immunity. In fact, their protection lasts only a few months. If that is the case with COVID, whatever heard immunity that may be achieve now will wear off just in time for the next flu season and COVID-20 season. That would be a really, really bad scenario.

The only true hope for herd immunity is a workable vaccine. Period.
 

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Truth always sounds like lies to a sinner
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if they **** up the economy to the max then it won't matter if there is med treatment or not as it will be full on survival
 

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I can just imagine we all worry about herd nerd and future second wave third wave and POW.....A freaking Meteorite hits us from space while we chased all this and takes out a billion people. And we still will be wearing bio suits and masks and saying stay home.Don't go out. As the other few will turn cannibal to survive...Lets see what wave is that one now?


freaking lemmings live what life you have TILL YOU CAN'T....
800px-ESO-L__Cal%C3%A7ada_-_Pluto_%28by%29.jpg
 

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Quick question -- which investment made today will be the clear winner 5 years from now?

The answer is the same to the WuFlu questions -- we don't know, because there are a lot of things that we either don't know or can't predict about The Virus. Is Sweden going to be the winner? Too early to tell.

Which makes it really easy to argue down any point with, well that may not work because The Virus might do this or it could do that or what if ......

What we do know, however, is that we cannot keep the economy shut down for months or years until we develop a perfect and complete WuFlu knowledge base -- the cost is simply too great.
 

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I stole this in it's entirety and shared it on F.B.

My apologies for the theft.
 

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How many have wondered just where Anders Tegnell is getting these numbers suggesting that 26% of Stockholm's population has already acquired immunity as of May 1?

Because Sweden has tested only a very small percentage of its population for covid-19. Their test rate of 14,704 per million is the lowest in western Europe. And the mathematical model that he is basing this sunny projection upon? Well, you can read about that here:

https://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se...-covid-19-outbreak-stockholm-feb-apr-2020.pdf

Those who choose to wade through this pile of mathematical mumbo jumbo will find that the model is based upon many assumptions of dubious validity and the whole model is "calibrated" with the results of testing of a grand total of 707 individuals in Stockholm of which 18 (2.5%) had tested positive as of April 3.

So on the basis of test results in 18 people we can confidently conclude, with the help of a lot of mathematical shenanigans, that over 424,000 Stockholm residents had become immune to covid-19 eleven days ago? Color me skeptical.
 

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The balance is between waiting long enough so that we have a more effective treatment strategy (which many are coming in the next few weeks/month that you don't hear from the media because of all the political noise) vs rescuing the economy. People on both sides have strong opinions and the balance is somewhere in the middle.

And btw, herd immunity through exposure/catching the disease is actually not very prudent and probably not effective. We don't know if infection/recovery from COVID confers long lasting immunity/protection from future infections. In fact, if previous coronaviruses outbreaks can serve as historical examples, neither SARS nor MERS survivors had long term immunity. In fact, their protection lasts only a few months. If that is the case with COVID, whatever heard immunity that may be achieve now will wear off just in time for the next flu season and COVID-20 season. That would be a really, really bad scenario.

The only true hope for herd immunity is a workable vaccine. Period.
Herd immunity is the only answer, assuming it occurs. Herd immunity will have to happen through either exposure and/or vaccination. If herd immunity does not occur due to antigenic drift by the virus, then you’re correct, we have a big problem.

A vaccine may work assuming Researchers have found an area of the virus that is “conserved” and the antibody
response is effective. The other issue is logistics. While we may obtain herd immunity in this country through vaccination with a high enough compliance rate, I doubt we’ll come anywhere close in the third world.

This virus is likely going to become the new normal. In time, humans will adapt to the virus.

I too am very concerned with the upcoming flu season. Even more concerning is the emergence of a virulent and easily transmitted Avian Flu virus in the not too distant future. And yes, China will likely be ground zero again.
 

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I believe Sweden may be on the right track. However, if herd immunity only lasts a few months, then they will likely have a big problem if they see a second wave in the middle of flu season.

Science has for the most part kept pandemics at bay. It can’t protect us indefinitely. Zoonotic
diseases from the third world are going to become more and more numerous.

As human populations increase, so will encounters with new Zoonotic organisms. Simply put, too many people in close contact with too many animals. Add unsanitary conditions and you have all the ingredients for an outbreak.
 

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Your article is dated 4/20, where it said Swedish death was at around 1,500. That number has more than doubled in less than a month and Sweden is paying for it right now. It's also not like Sweden is BAU. They've long banned "gatherings of more than 50 people, kept distance between people in bars and restaurants, and has banned visitors to care homes. With people encouraged to socially distance and work from home, public transport is often empty." It's a culture that was already self-isolated, in parts, from the beginning.
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Yes, they’ve been. Social distancing way before this virus

https://www.politico.eu/article/social-distance-swedish-style/
 

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The could just do what China did and make up the numbers and claim "herd immunity". Classify deaths as Pneumonia and pretend they solved the problem. Because looking at their data right now.... they look like they are cresting the first of what 'experts' say will likely be 2 or 3 waves.
 
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