St. Louis President of Fed Reserve warns of possible recession.

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by Rawah, Jul 22, 2018.

  1. Rawah

    Rawah

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  2. Darkangel1846

    Darkangel1846

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    Just like all the other times the leftist talking heads are pushing for another rescission during this presidency.
     
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  3. G29guy06

    G29guy06

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    The Fed could probably make it happen...increases interest rates and such
     
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  4. Patchman

    Patchman Florist

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    I could use some interest rate rise... say 4-percent yield for 10 yr T-notes.
     
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  5. quasii

    quasii

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    Basically, all he is saying is the fed needs to slow the pace of increasing interest rate hikes... It's also harder to pay off the national debt credit card when we cannot make the interest payments.
     
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  6. G29guy06

    G29guy06

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    Then that is where Trump makes some business/ political trades...

    China- no interest for you for 10yrs and we won’t arrest your OPM hackers... and go from there
     
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  7. Rawah

    Rawah

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    I certainly get that it becomes harder to pay the national debt down let alone interest payments, but have congress critters from either party (when in control) actually paid down the national debt when interest rates have been low? Seems many like to campaign on doing so but then it never actually happens...
     
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  8. RustyL

    RustyL

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    I bet Bill Maher is pleasuring himself about now.
     
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  9. JBnTX

    JBnTX

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    With each passing day the edge of the financial cliff gets closer.
    It's only a matter of time.

    We'll see a MAJOR market decline within the next two years.
    With massive inflation and unemployment.
     
    Last edited: Jul 22, 2018
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  10. Z71bill

    Z71bill

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    10 years after the financial crisis and interest rates are still extremely accommodative - you could make a case they are at levels that would indicate the economy is still in the middle of a crisis.

    Keeping rates this low for this long has caused more problems than it solved - and now the FED is sort of trapped by their own stupidity and hubris.

    The FED should never be in a role of supporting market valuations -
     
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  11. Rellik

    Rellik Kwisatz Haderach in Training

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    Recession - yawn. Wake when it starts.
     
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  12. Z71bill

    Z71bill

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    A big part of the reason we ran up so much debt is because the FED kept rates too low for too long -

    Solving what was a debt crisis by keeping interest rates at around zero so even more debt could be piled up - was a bad idea.
     
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  13. Patchman

    Patchman Florist

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    The Feds need to raise the interest rates a bit more, if for nothing else then for the next market crash where they can lower the rates again, like they did in 2008.
     
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  14. kiole

    kiole

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    Agreed

    Except many student loans are variable rate. As interest rates rise so do student loans. When people have to choose between defaulting on student loans or eating/living they aren’t picking their student loans. The student loan bubble bursting will make the housing bubble look small. There is zero collateral on those loans and at some point if the house of cards collapses it’ll take down a lot with it.
     
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  15. Z71bill

    Z71bill

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    I don’t agree student loans are a trigger.

    All government backed - Uncle Sam has already borrowed the cash to fund them. Writing them off means nothing - and would in fact cause an increase in the borrowing capacity of the folks who owed the money. Giving them better credit availability.

    We live in an upsidedown world -
    War is Peace, Freedom is Slavery, and Ignorance is Strength!
     
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  16. WeeWilly

    WeeWilly

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    Bullard is a dove. He wants to see serious inflation before the Fed acts. His is out of the Bernanke/Yellen mold, so he always wants to favor more accommodation over less.

    The fact that the 2-10 spread has gotten down to like 25bp’s is starting to rattle a lot of perennial bulls.

    The biggest bull on the equities market (Tony Dwyer) says we have 18mos after the curve inverts before the Bear begins. Of course, he also says, “this bull market will not end well”, just 18mos after 2’s start yielding more than 10’s... ;)

    They used to call that dancing between the rain drops... :)
     
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  17. chandne

    chandne

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    If you keep up with stimulus (the unnecessary last one did not help at all) inflation also becomes a concern. Plus, with rates so low, the Feds have to raise them. One of the things is does, is control inflation but it gives the Feds a tool back to increase liquidity when needed again. Yeah, this raises of rates can trigger a recession and a big one given our deficit and lack of bullets left. Hopefully this trade war will not last too long. That will also exacerbate the situation. The Fed is in a tough spot and walking a tightrope here. I do not envy them. This has nothing to do with leftists and rightists or whatever. This is just economics, fiscal and especially monetary policies. The situation is becoming more precarious.
     
  18. janice6

    janice6

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    I could predict any sort of calamity for the stock market or the economy, and given enough time, it would eventually come true.
     
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  19. Jonesee

    Jonesee

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    The fed's main job is to control inflation. GDP and inflation are heating up.

    The Fed has stated there will be more interest rate hikes to slow the economy down. Although they have stepped back from an earlier prediction of how many.

    We haven't had a recession or a bear market in 10 years. The bull market age is in record territory. A bear market (20% decrease in the market) is coming. Historically speaking, we may have some time before the next recession, although recessions don't follow a calendar.

    I spent the weekend working on my portfolios and determining exactly where I stand. Historically I've been 90%+ in equities. This weekend I stand at 56% equities and 44% fixed income and cash. That is how firmly I believe the market will turn.

    Trump, like all other presidents, needs to let the fed do their job. No president has the knowledge, data and expertise the fed has.
     
  20. Guss

    Guss

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    With a good chunk of the economy in the hands of globalists who can borrow from any country, I'm wondering if U.S. lending policies even matter as much as they used to.