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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...pLom_l3uUs2g7LoKSrGaR3B-14F-LSAbs6mZgvVA7fL98

Sweden’s Public Health Agency rejected the models. It instead planned for a worst-case scenario that was much less pessimistic, suggesting a peak around 1,700 ICU patients in the middle of May. Still more than three times more than the pre-pandemic capacity. Sweden, almost alone in the world, refused to lock down. And here is how things eventually worked out.



The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).

Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 Covid-19 deaths by 1 July. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish Covid-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.

One reason why the models failed is that they – just like most countries’ politicians – underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realise lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.



The models they were basing the initial projections on were from the same clown in the UK, Gardner, that has been wrong about everything so far, including infection and death rates in the US. Thank God for those who were unwilling to swallow that bull**** and run around screaming the sky is falling because, it appears, we are starting to see what could be the real story.
 

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Tired of hearing about how great Sweden has done, it's fake news.

Sweden has higher death rate per capita than most countries and their cases per capita is almost the same as France.
 

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Discussion Starter · #3 ·
Tired of hearing about how great Sweden has done, it's fake news.

Sweden has higher death rate per capita than most countries and their cases per capita is almost the same as France.
Fake news?

3300 deaths, 550 occupied intensive care beds, with NOTHING shut down? You want this virus to ravage the world so you can say you were right all along?
 

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They're taking a higher per-capita hit on death rates compared to their Nordic neighbors and their economy is taking a hit as well. People keep glazing over that fact that Sweden is a low-social country. Sure, the government didn't mandate quarantine, but people really aren't going out, frequenting establishments, and overall, doing much either. They're self-quarantining. They're essentially doing what we're doing now, but on their own rather than being told to.
Despite the loose regulations, the pandemic has walloped the Swedish economy. Unemployment is on the rise and the government has said it's possible GDP will drop by 10 percent. The GDP of the eurozone, of which Sweden is not a member, is expected to contract by 7.75 percent.

Jonas Frycklund of the Swedish employers' association shares a graph that depicts just how adversely the consequences of the pandemic are affecting Swedish companies. Hotels and restaurants are the worst hit. Ninety-three percent say they have financing or liquidity problems. Frycklund now thinks Sweden's special approach will hurt its competitiveness. "The time it will take us to control the virus will be prolonged. It's not good for the economy." The economy could "bounce back more quickly" after a stricter lockdown like the ones in other countries.
https://www.spiegel.de/internationa...sweden-a-1eb30579-b5e8-44e5-9743-21adfb1242a0
 

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Tired of hearing about how great Sweden has done, it's fake news.

Sweden has higher death rate per capita than most countries and their cases per capita is almost the same as France.
They are expected to have higher infection and death rates NOW, because they are not flattening anything - they are where everyone else will be in x months. The only meaningful metric now is whether anyone is dying due to the lack of medical attention. If not, they are better off than everyone else, since they’re achieving the same result sooner without trashing their economy.
 

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https://www.spectator.co.uk/article...pLom_l3uUs2g7LoKSrGaR3B-14F-LSAbs6mZgvVA7fL98

Sweden’s Public Health Agency rejected the models. It instead planned for a worst-case scenario that was much less pessimistic, suggesting a peak around 1,700 ICU patients in the middle of May. Still more than three times more than the pre-pandemic capacity. Sweden, almost alone in the world, refused to lock down. And here is how things eventually worked out.



The number of patients in ICU has been fairly stable around 500-550 since mid-April. This means that capacity was never exceeded. At this moment, when the models suggested that Sweden would have 30 to 40 patients fighting over every available ICU bed, there is spare capacity in beds, equipment and personnel of around 30 percent (partly as a result of a doubling of the pre-pandemic capacity).

Gardner et al predicted that Sweden would have 82,000 Covid-19 deaths by 1 July. That implies around 1,000 deaths every day since the paper was published in mid-April. However, the total number of Swedish Covid-19 deaths at the time of writing is 3,313.

One reason why the models failed is that they – just like most countries’ politicians – underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances. They only thought in terms of lockdowns vs business as usual, but failed to consider a third option: that people engage in social distancing voluntarily when they realise lives are at stake and when authorities recommend them to do so.



The models they were basing the initial projections on were from the same clown in the UK, Gardner, that has been wrong about everything so far, including infection and death rates in the US. Thank God for those who were unwilling to swallow that bull**** and run around screaming the sky is falling because, it appears, we are starting to see what could be the real story.
You really don't understand why it's wrong to compare apples to oranges.
And you really don't understand how epidemiological comparisons are done and why you cannot compare fundamentally different populations.

If you really think using Sweden is a great example for social policy, then you must believe that the strict gun banning policy in Japan should be applied to the US, right? Just look at firearm death rates in Japan. Man, wouldn't it be great if that same policy can be instituted in the US and make everyone turn in their guns? Imaging how many lives it will save.

And before you say that the 2A is a constitutional right in the US and how our history and social values are different than Japan.... well, what do think Sweden is compared to the US?
 

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Discussion Starter · #8 ·
You really don't understand why it's wrong to compare apples to oranges.
And you really don't understand how epidemiological comparisons are done and why you cannot compare fundamentally different populations.

If you really think using Sweden is a great example for social policy, then you must believe that the strict gun banning policy in Japan should be applied to the US, right? Just look at firearm death rates in Japan. Man, wouldn't it be great if that same policy can be instituted in the US and make everyone turn in their guns? Imaging how many lives it will save.

And before you say that the 2A is a constitutional right in the US and how our history and social values are different than Japan.... well, what do think Sweden is compared to the US?
Now who's comparing apples and oranges? Gun Policy and quarantine/shelter in place etc?
 

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You really don't understand why it's wrong to compare apples to oranges.
And you really don't understand how epidemiological comparisons are done and why you cannot compare fundamentally different populations.

If you really think using Sweden is a great example for social policy, then you must believe that the strict gun banning policy in Japan should be applied to the US, right? Just look at firearm death rates in Japan. Man, wouldn't it be great if that same policy can be instituted in the US and make everyone turn in their guns? Imaging how many lives it will save.

And before you say that the 2A is a constitutional right in the US and how our history and social values are different than Japan.... well, what do think Sweden is compared to the US?
Why can't we compare Sweden to the US?
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
You really don't understand why it's wrong to compare apples to oranges.
And you really don't understand how epidemiological comparisons are done and why you cannot compare fundamentally different populations.

If you really think using Sweden is a great example for social policy, then you must believe that the strict gun banning policy in Japan should be applied to the US, right? Just look at firearm death rates in Japan. Man, wouldn't it be great if that same policy can be instituted in the US and make everyone turn in their guns? Imaging how many lives it will save.

And before you say that the 2A is a constitutional right in the US and how our history and social values are different than Japan.... well, what do think Sweden is compared to the US?
The main point I drew from the article was this: One reason why the models failed is that they – just like most countries’ politicians – underestimated how millions of people spontaneously adapt to new circumstances.

We are being treated like children, like no one has any sense, or sense of personal responsibility. I am all for being cautious if you choose, but to mandate such behaviors, to my mind, is crossing a line that shouldn't be crossed.
 

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You need a universal healthcare program to establish herd immunity?
If we're arguing that the social factors between the two countries can be compared, then might as well.

The point is we can't compare the two because they're different. You can't pick and choose when Sweden is an appropriate comparison and when it is not, in terms of social policy.
 

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If we're arguing that the social factors between the two countries can be compared, then might as well.
Sweden and the UK both have socialized healthcare systems and they have different COVID national policies with different outcomes, so a socialist healthcare system itself isn't a meaningful factor.
 

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Tired of hearing about how great Sweden has done, it's fake news.

Sweden has higher death rate per capita than most countries and their cases per capita is almost the same as France.
Their per-capita death count is lower than Belgium, Spain, Italy, the UK and france per worldometers.

Their per-capita case count is lower than Spain, ireland, Belgium, Singapore, USA, Italy, Switzerland and the UK.

But aren't they simply letting the virus do what it's going to do anyway? Isn't the only factor whether or not their healthcare system gets overwhelmed? That's what we have been told about our own lockdown. It's not changing the final case or death count, just delaying it. So if they are not overwhelmed, then in the end, they'll be in the same position they would have been WITH a lockdown but without the dire economic effects.
 

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Sweden and the UK both have socialized healthcare systems and they have different COVID national policies with different outcomes, so a socialist healthcare system itself isn't a meaningful factor.
So I guess back to your response of, "Why can't we compare Sweden to the US?," I'll ask why you think we can compare the US to Sweden?
 

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As I read the article, the author's main point was people in Sweden did on a voluntary basis much that was mandated in other countries. If this is so than the question becomes whether people in other countries lacking mandates will act like Swedes.
Also there is the question if Swedes did more under a voluntary system than other did under a mandated system.
 
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