McConnell says Democrats have '50-50' odds of flipping Senate control

Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by IOmm, Oct 29, 2020.

  1. IOmm

    IOmm ╠╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬ƁȖǤȘ╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╬╣ Silver Member

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  2. jeanderson

    jeanderson Making America great again!

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    Sounds like doom and gloom. Mitch's strange way of getting out the vote (or suppressing Democrat voters)? He doesn't even mention Michigan.
    Trafalgar poll (most accurate in 2016) for U.S. Senate in Michigan:
    [​IMG]

    Hell, there's a chance Republican could pick up some seats.
     
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  3. grumpy1

    grumpy1

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    Yeah it's going to be close. I even sent 3 small contributions to Lindsay Graham. His opponent has gotten over $100 millions dollars to try and defeat him. Democrats are killing it with money from their big billionaire donors including the those that own/run the big social media companies that are banning almost anything negative about biden and such. The worth of the complicit fake news 24/7 TDS MSM is also huge factor.
     
  4. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    That's better than the Dems have been saying for months now.

    I threw down $100 on "Dem's do NOT make a clean sweep" under the theory that if they do, $100 in "just for fun" money is going to be the least of my concerns.

    It was paying a little better than even money and I figured either Trump or the Senate (or hopefully both) will come through for me.
     
  5. Kablam

    Kablam

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    Maybe if the GOP establishment actually wanted to govern and would fight they'd be in better shape.
     
  6. BigBluefish

    BigBluefish

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    Yeah, I'm not having a good feeling about our chances of holding the Senate.
     
  7. Rex Vallachorum

    Rex Vallachorum Previously achieved fame and glory as Burebista

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    You people who believe all these BS polls and pull the hair out the top of your heads because Trump is going to lose of the Senate is going to flip Demshevik, please stop and think about this:

    DOES TRUMP LOOKS AND ACTS LIKE HE'S CONCERNED ABOUT LOSING THE WHITE HOUSE OR THE SENATE?

    He's got his internal polling numbers which is always the most accurate and he knows we're going to be all right.

    So please stop spreading this Demshevik propaganda and go out and vote. We will crush these treasonous and corrupt socialist bastards on November 3rd.
     
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  8. Gundude

    Gundude

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    Kind of, yeah.
     
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  9. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

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    I hope he's just trying to keep Republican voters afraid and motivated. From the evidence I see, that is the case. McConnell's challenger, for example, just had a campaign event with a band and multiple speakers in Louisville. It drew a crowd of 50. That's even according to the Courier Journal, which is prone to stretch the truth in her favor.

    https://www.courier-journal.com/sto...sts-louisville-early-voting-event/3746058001/

    'You know that we need change': Amy McGrath appeals to voters a week before election

    SARAH LADD | Louisville Courier Journal

    LOUISVILLE, Ky. — With a week until Election Day, Democratic U.S. Senate candidate Amy McGrath appealed to voters at Lynn Family Stadium on Tuesday.

    At least 50 people gathered at the afternoon rally, which featured musicians and various speakers, including Ben Sollee, Becky Warren, Pam Stevenson, War and Treaty, and Jim James of My Morning Jacket.

    McGrath, who is running against Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, promised progress in Washington if elected.

    [​IMG]

    Apparently the counted the other speakers and bands waiting to go on stage to get that number up to 50.
     
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  10. rock_castle

    rock_castle With Liberty and Justice for all.

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    This election has a very similar feel as 2016. All the polls had Hillary far ahead. Trump was pulling in huge crowds and Hillary was pulling in tiny ones. The media was doing everything in its power to get Hillary elected. They were covering up her email scandals and not reporting on them. It's really deja vu.
     
  11. narkcop128

    narkcop128

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    I would agree everything mimics 2016 EXCEPT this time the democrats are preparing massive voter fraud in swing states controlled by democrat governors. It worries me a lot.
     
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  12. rock_castle

    rock_castle With Liberty and Justice for all.

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    They tried it in 2016 too.
     
  13. Rex Vallachorum

    Rex Vallachorum Previously achieved fame and glory as Burebista

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    Stop watching CNN
     
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  14. narkcop128

    narkcop128

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    I caught the tail end of radio news and they said one state (Pennsylvania?) Courts ordered counting non post marked ballots AFTER the election. That's how dumba** Franken got in office.
     
  15. ThatGuyYouKnow

    ThatGuyYouKnow Custom Title Goes Here

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    [​IMG]
     
  16. jcm3

    jcm3 G22 4 Me

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    Ben Shapiro was going over the polls and how they've changed, and taken into account factors that they either missed or got wrong in 2016. His particular feel was that if it's within the margin of error that he feels pretty good about them being wrong, but if Biden is up by 7+ points that based on what he said they're doing differently that they're more accurate.

    I hope the polls are wrong and you're right, as I can't imagine a Biden presidency. A Biden presidency with control of the house and senate would be a disaster. I don't even want to think about that.
     
  17. jeanderson

    jeanderson Making America great again!

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    I really don’t know why more people don’t see this, including many in this forum.
     
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  18. Rex Vallachorum

    Rex Vallachorum Previously achieved fame and glory as Burebista

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    I see it.
    They don't.
    They also don't see the fact that Trump gained almost 20% more Latino and black voters than he had in 2016.

    As a Republican President he has the highest number of minority voters in his camp since before Lindon Johnson signed The Great Society into law.
     
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  19. PrescottGlock

    PrescottGlock

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    Pollsters are not doing anything differently. They look at 2016 as an outlier. The still have to decide the relative turnout for each group (age, gender, race, party, etc.), poll a representative number for each, and then plug in their turnout projections into their polling results.

    The process thereby relies very, VERY heavily on the projected turnout numbers. If older voters turn out, (R) benefit. If white voters turn out, (R) benefit. If minority voters turn out (circa Obammy 2012), (D)'s benefit.

    Most polls still use the 2012 turnout projections and those are nowhere close to the actual numbers. That accounts in large part why the 2016 polls were SO FREAKING WRONG. In 2012, the (D)'s were fired up and almost nobody was fired up about Mittens Romney. Not even him.

    So using those numbers as the "base" is where these pollsters go plop. I have some reasonably extensive background in statistics, and can say with certainty that a variable as significant as turnout, with almost no current data on which to base those numbers, makes most polls almost worthless.

    The big difference between 2016 and 2020 is that Hillary generated zero energy for voters. None. Most of her voters could barely stomach voting for her.

    Much the same is true for DJ but the anti-Trump frenzy generated by the media for four years counteracts that a great deal.

    P.S. McSally better win Arizona. The Senate probably depends on it.