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Resident Misanthrope
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It will drop until the election and then depending on the outcome and challenges etc it will either settle or become even more volatile. If it goes really low I will buy as much as I can.
 

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One of my favorite bits of pithy wisdom that is more true than not:

The market is a voting machine short term, but a scale long term.
 

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I have about 29k in a hobby trading account (my "real" money is in 401ks that I don't touch)..

All of it, save about 6k I sent to cash on Monday

Market is down 800 today?
More to fall or is this the bottom?

I am expect Thursday and Friday to be hella volatile.
I think your overall reasoning is sound. The market has lost momentum since September. Selling on Monday was a little late but still good (index wise).

The market closing below 27,000 on the DJIA was significant but not decisive. If it starts to trend below 27,000 then that is definitely bearish but there are a lot of people who look upon this as a buying opportunity, not to mention groups who don't want things to go negative for political/economic reasons.

Personally, I don't see anything to be optimistic about until the index trends above 30,000 on the DJIA. The failure to break 29,000 was significant in a bearish sense. These are the things that are important if you're trading your own account. Let the markets tell you what to do.

If you're trading individual stocks, start looking for examples that have held their ground. Put them on a watch list and wait for some sign of upward movement. This would be good if you're a trader but the current drop is not deep enough if you're a value investor looking for deals.

etc, etc, etc. Generally, I've been short since Sept (index wise). There are always examples that will buck the trend.

V.
 

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The market was sure there was gonna be another round of stimulus money, became plain it wasn't going to happen. The market will be a nervous as a hooker in church until after the election. Market hates uncertainty. After election market will start to go up again no matter who wins.
 

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NRA Benefactor
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If you bought an ounce of gold on 9/1/11 when the price was $1826, how much did you make if you sold today at $1880? Not much.

August 5 would have been a little better at $2038, but that's still not much profit for 9 years of waiting. Nine years of no interest, no dividends, no nothing.

And now that you've sold, what are you going to buy?
 

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If you bought an ounce of gold on 9/1/11 when the price was $1826, how much did you make if you sold today at $1880? Not much.

August 5 would have been a little better at $2038, but that's still not much profit for 9 years of waiting. Nine years of no interest, no dividends, no nothing.

And now that you've sold, what are you going to buy?
Gold, and to a lesser extent silver - the metals not paper - is somewhat like life insurance for most people. You don’t want to have to use precious metals for grocery shopping. And you don’t want your beneficiaries collecting your life insurance.
 

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NRA Benefactor
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But once you buy some and stash it away you don't need to buy more. So your gold sits there year after year earning nothing. I get it. I have a little.

I have a fair amount of junk silver my father and I saved out of pocket change in the '60s. I have some gold proofs he bought from the mint. They aren't investments, but they are beautiful.

Why has the price of gold gone up? Inflation? Wishful thinking? CDs paying .05%?
 

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Markets don’t like uncertainty- they have just gotten a double shot of it.

After the election no matter who wins it will reduce uncertainty.

Most think a Biden win will have more government spending - that is good for risk assets - until the collapse anyway.
Never let politics cloud your investment view.
 

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This drop is being blamed on the failed Covid stimulus negotiations. But, who really knows.

I just settled my accounts. It was the largest single day dollar loss since March 16. The 3 days so far this week have been an ouch! The futures markets for tomorrow are up. I hope it holds.
 

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Why so serious?
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64,991 Posts
My advice:

Buy low, sell high.

Or in other words; "No Stuff Sherlock!".

Best of luck to all Americans!
 
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Banned
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National debt is never getting paid go to $50 trillion they don't care. And everybody knows its not getting paid ever.

the next sure thing in life. It arrives at the end.
6de5c33ec763a411cfd203cbb78241d2.jpg
 

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Why so serious?
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"The Goose"
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I can’t believe it bounced back as much as it did. But that’s because the fed, and Trump, pumped trillions in the economy.

the effect of that is wearing off, bailout money has run out, and sooner, or later, the banks have to start hurting.
 

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Previously nutsnax
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695 Posts
Nutsnax has it.

1. Certain federal tax reductions will start expiring, as scheduled.
2. The change in treatment of federal total deductions will adversely affect taxpayers in certain areas.
3. Municipal and state deficits are scheduled to increase dramatically, and higher taxes will be imposed, a sort of stimulus to spiraling down.
4. The state and federal treatment of savings does not encourage people to save - especially when investors face a negative return on near cash investments after taxes and inflation.

The insanity has led to the Fed approving 7 year car loans, 3% down payments on houses (and the down payment can now be borrowed).

Let me give you an additional slant. A lot of Trump supporters were whopping it up when a new "trade deal" was worked out with the PRC. You really believed that there was a deal? You really believed that Mr. Trump forced the reds to back down? Ok. Now I give you the reality as I have a farm where soybeans are raised.
1. the pig crop in the PRC was subject to the equivalent of Ebola and 40% of the pigs were lost.
2. the PRC has had insects devastating the normal grain crop.
3. Reasons 1 & 2 were why the reds agreed to buy more crops.
4. As of October 1st, the reds have purchased less than 40% of the additional crops promised to Mr. Trump. The PRC is not on track to fulfill the promise. And, what is the series sanctions that can and will be imposed? Absolutely none.
5. Why did the PRC allow US chickens to be imported again when they had been banned since 2015? Look at reasons 1 and 2.

And, another slant.
Follow the container ship rental prices and consolidations. International commerce came to a near stand still. You still haven't seen the effects. Example, US toy orders have to be completed by August to ensure delivery of toys for Christmas. You don't have to be an economic guru to figure out that a conservative merchant is not going to take the risk that Christmas sales will as good or better than last year. Los Angeles is already festooned with "for rent" signs on vacant stores. Moreover, vacancy signs are now appearing on apartment buildings and may soon rival the number in the Great Recession.

800 points is a small percentage out of 23,000 points.
Question for you:

I think some believe that the Chinese are playing Trump and doing so from a position of strength.... Im not so convinced

To your points about Chinese food import deals with the US: What do you think the likelihood is that, instead of the Chinese playing the US, they simply cannot pay and are willing to let their masses starve to maintain a facade of strength?

The reason I thought of this is because if I were a full retard Communist thats what I would do.

Edit: and perhaps writing off their unwashed masses and stockpiling food (and other things) in preparation for a massive war.
 
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