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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
I have about 29k in a hobby trading account (my "real" money is in 401ks that I don't touch)..

All of it, save about 6k I sent to cash on Monday

Market is down 800 today?
More to fall or is this the bottom?

I am expect Thursday and Friday to be hella volatile.
 

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*** Warning, I am NOT a certified financial advisor ***

for what it's worth, after Trump wins a second term, the GOP retakes the house, and gains senate seats, the market will ROCKET to heights previously unseen. I predict 2021 to be a VERY good year.

and oh yeah, free Fullclip...
 

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And if Trump loses, and the Dems take the Senate, Dow 15,000 here we come.

Disclaimer: my financial predictions are as reliable as my political predictions, and as successful as my choices in women before I met my wife.
 

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Markets for all sorts of things will crater whether Trump wins or not. "Markets" are massive ponzi schemes at this point.

Why?

Stimulus money, forebearance and "lending" facilities (aka money printing) are the only things propping the market up right now. The DOW should be at 6000 right now (and if you remember it was heading that way in the early days of the pandemic but reversed so quickly....gee....i wonder why?)

Additionally, all of those unemployed pilots, waiters, burger flippers and walmart associates were propping up an entire rentier class lifestyle. Those rents are now gone. What happens to the rental income of the landlords? The banks managing the mortgages? The Securities that those mortgages comprise?

Im thinking 2021/2022 will be an absolute bloodbath for markets for all kinds of things. The DOW might be propped up to keep zombie pension funds flowing (at the expense of price inflation) but it will be an absolute potemkin village (it already is).

Think about it this way: the US is printing money so that you can maintain the illusion of wealth and retirement.

The politicians and elites have stolen your money and livelihoods you just dont know it yet because the number on your screen is bigger than it was yesterday.
 

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I figured the market would have dropped quite a bit by now as it doesn't seem to like uncertainty.
If Biden wins, I think it drops more. I have no idea how long it would take to rebound. If Trump wins term 2, it will set a new record within a year. Would be within a month but COVID and all will hold it back some.
 

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There is "insider selling" that is the legal kind. That is where company officers, etc. sell their own personal company holdings. If they are selling their own company shares, do you want to hold them?

Pay attention to about 4:00 in. Go ahead and watch it all. Later she mentions that FHA is in worse shape now than the Great Financial Crisis of 2008.

This is a Fed insider. She knows what she is talking about.

My old memory is just that, old. I posted this once before. Oh well.....if you missed it.........

 

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I'm watching IVV (500 S&P ETF index). I would not move until it hits ~280 then buy down on a ladder - 280 - 270 - 260 - 250 etc. IMHO, it just past the sell point ~330. Now in the sit tight zone waiting for precipitous decline OR a rise to get out.
Remember, volatility can be your friend. :dancing:
 

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Well, a Kamala/Biden win could be good for gold/silver.
Of course, everything else will be sh!t. :D
 

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Nutsnax has it.

1. Certain federal tax reductions will start expiring, as scheduled.
2. The change in treatment of federal total deductions will adversely affect taxpayers in certain areas.
3. Municipal and state deficits are scheduled to increase dramatically, and higher taxes will be imposed, a sort of stimulus to spiraling down.
4. The state and federal treatment of savings does not encourage people to save - especially when investors face a negative return on near cash investments after taxes and inflation.

The insanity has led to the Fed approving 7 year car loans, 3% down payments on houses (and the down payment can now be borrowed).

Let me give you an additional slant. A lot of Trump supporters were whopping it up when a new "trade deal" was worked out with the PRC. You really believed that there was a deal? You really believed that Mr. Trump forced the reds to back down? Ok. Now I give you the reality as I have a farm where soybeans are raised.
1. the pig crop in the PRC was subject to the equivalent of Ebola and 40% of the pigs were lost.
2. the PRC has had insects devastating the normal grain crop.
3. Reasons 1 & 2 were why the reds agreed to buy more crops.
4. As of October 1st, the reds have purchased less than 40% of the additional crops promised to Mr. Trump. The PRC is not on track to fulfill the promise. And, what is the series sanctions that can and will be imposed? Absolutely none.
5. Why did the PRC allow US chickens to be imported again when they had been banned since 2015? Look at reasons 1 and 2.

And, another slant.
Follow the container ship rental prices and consolidations. International commerce came to a near stand still. You still haven't seen the effects. Example, US toy orders have to be completed by August to ensure delivery of toys for Christmas. You don't have to be an economic guru to figure out that a conservative merchant is not going to take the risk that Christmas sales will as good or better than last year. Los Angeles is already festooned with "for rent" signs on vacant stores. Moreover, vacancy signs are now appearing on apartment buildings and may soon rival the number in the Great Recession.

800 points is a small percentage out of 23,000 points.
 

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The trends of the major indices are all down ATM. (Maybe you could argue /CL and /GC are at the bottoms of their channels. So not yet a downtrend for those two.)

Unless someone comes out with an effective vaccine rapidly, it will likely continue for a while.
Barring that, it will likely be turbulent at least until the election.

That said, no one knows! We just have to trade the charts in front of us.
 

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What did I come in here for?
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I have about 29k in a hobby trading account (my "real" money is in 401ks that I don't touch)..

All of it, save about 6k I sent to cash on Monday?

Market is down 800 today?
More to fall or is this the bottom?
6 days to the election, remember it's 2020. I'm thinking not.
Down 3.5% or so today, 8% since 10/12 if my math is right.
I would not be surprised to see a bashing like 15-20% or more.
Of course, I'm no expert.

im out.gif
 
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