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Jet Crash...Whats your theory???

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by hapuna, Feb 2, 2005.

  1. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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  2. ateamer

    ateamer NRA4EVR

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    There is no way any of us know what happened at this early stage, and we should not speculate. Wait for the NTSB.
     

  3. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    No actually I am asking for speculation. I know the NTSB will come out with the official findings in 9+ months but I want to know what flying folks think happened here?? Then we can compare it to the NTSB findings and see who was closest.

    Its kinda like saying don't tell me who you think will win the Superbowl just wait til its over. I'm not trying to find the actual cause just see what folks think the likely cause is.:)
     
  4. Cross-X

    Cross-X CLM

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    Too much throttle, not enough brakes, and a sadly delayed decision to abort the take off.

    The pilot may have relied too much on his gauges and not enough on what was actually going on outside of his aircraft.
     
  5. SlimlineGlock

    SlimlineGlock

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  6. Dog Easy

    Dog Easy

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    If we just wait long enough, we will hear an eye witness report stating that " the landing gear was up, both engines were on fire and you could hear all of the passengers screaming". Yes, I am a moron and I will say anything to get on television.............

    FLY SAFE John
     
  7. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    If the landing gear was up this accident wouldn't have happened. ;f It was a takeoff accident.
     
  8. Superfueler

    Superfueler Glockenplane

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    I know the people that own and fly the aircraft involved, and it would be a great injustice to speculate what happened. Let's not play CNN with their aviation 'experts' and pretend we know whats going on. We'll find out what went on when the NTSB gives their final ruling.
     
  9. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    No one will even remember the incident when the NTSB gives its findings. This was an accident with no deaths that I am aware of and everyone survived. Just wondered what folks thought not trying to make a factual finding!;P
     
  10. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    Here is a report from 1 of the pilots. Apparenlty he isn't going to wait for the NTSB report.;b

    STUCK YOKE ON CRASHED CHALLENGER?...
    The pilot of a Challenger 600 bizjet that ran off the end of the runway at Teterboro Airport claims both he and his first officer were unable to pull the control yoke back, keeping them from raising the aircraft's nose and forcing him to abort the takeoff. And the pilot of a newer Challenger 601 that crashed off the end of a runway in Colorado in November reportedly said he too was unable to pull back on the yoke of the aircraft he was flying, resulting in the deaths of three people. According to The New York Times, the pilot in Wednesday's crash, John Kimberling, told NTSB investigators that with the airplane at takeoff speed on the runway, he could only pull back the yoke about an inch instead of the normal three to four inches of travel.
     
  11. pizzaaguy

    pizzaaguy

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  12. F14Scott

    F14Scott Luggage CLM

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    Given the limited yoke travel, I'm going to guess one of two causal factors:

    1. Cockpit FOD, like a coin that falls down into the yoke and binds it.

    2. Malfunctioning (runaway) or improperly set pitch trim. Had that happen to me once in my jet. An electrical short activated nose down trim until we secured the correct breaker. We called for a pull forward and got a pinky trap, my pilot landing with about 20 lbs of forward stick force. It was a seriously varsity play for the deck from a first tour JO.

    As for the melodramatic "injustice of speculation," who cares what a bunch of nobodies (myself included) in an internet chat room think?
     
  13. dozing4dollars

    dozing4dollars Plasticized ! CLM

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    Where contrails are born...
    I would hazard a guess at ice accretion on the elevator/stab as a possible root cause...

    The reported temp was about 22F with calm winds and fair skies, but I don't know what the weather was the night before.

    Assuming the airplane flew into TEB without a flight control malfunction (misrigged, trim problem,etc) this guess MIGHT explain the lack of elevator throw at rotation.

    I have had the elevator on a smaller military jet freeze up in icing where I had to slam the stick around to break off the icing and free the stick from binding.

    I cannot think of too many other reasons that you would get an abnormal elevator throw without annunciated hydraulic malfunctions, or takeoff trim warning,etc.

    I wonder whether his/her pre-takeoff flight control checks were normal...

    Seems like the NTSB is gonna be busy studying this and the Colorado accident for commonalities, if they exist.
     
  14. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    Its my understanding that the Colorado incident involved similar characteristics and they are attributing it to W&B overloaded condition? Couldn't you tell the difference between the yoke not giving enough elevator movement and the fact that at full deflection there just wasn't enough to get an overloaded situation off the ground or would it seem like you just couldn't rotate normally???
     
  15. c6601a

    c6601a

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    Because of two reasons that I can think of off the top of my head, and there are most probably more:

    1) A speculation or allegation, repeated often enough, takes on the authority of truth and can not be dispersed by facts. In this case, no one died. But at some point in the future there is a similar accident where a number of people die. The NTSB finds that in that case it was pilot error, a conclusion that most pilots, based on their aviation knowledge, agree is the likely cause. But to the non-aviation family members of the deceased, the rampant speculation on the similar case smacks of a coverup and there is no amount of logic that will eliminate all nagging doubt for them.

    2) Someone comes up with a speculative and juicy possibility. Someone mails it to all their buddies who mail it to theirs and so on. Someone along the way adds a few more details to make it more authentic. In a few months you will have Piere Sallenger rising from his grave waveing a piece of paper that now proclaims a secret CIA memo as its source. The story will be debunked quickly, but 10 years later there will still be people convinced that it must be true because they read it on the internet.
     
  16. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    I believe you are overstating the importance of this exercise.:)
    Its simply to learn from others experience not to try to solve this incident. What if you found yourself at the controls of an identical plane prior to the NTSB pronouncement of what in fact did happen. Wouldn't it be good to understand some possible issues that may save your life?
     
  17. c6601a

    c6601a

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    What I am about to say is not fiction or speculation, but reality personally experienced by me. Because of some of my professional activities as an engineer, I was brought in to briefly consult in an accident investigation in a GA aircraft. As a result, I was privy to a lot of data that is not yet available to the public (you have no idea how much data can be collected from a handheld GPS, glass cockpits and other instruments after a crash).

    The accident created quite a bit of stir in a small community of pilots and there was a lot of speculation as to what happened, most of it was very far off base. Many experienced pilots offered suggestions as to what to do in a similar situation, which knowing what likely happend, would have made things worse not better. In that case, no one was willing to consider that this experienced and well liked pilot simply screwed up really big time. His decisionmaking process was seriously flawed and the accident could have been prevented if he had followed the basic rules taught on day 1 of ground school. Yet, not knowing many of the facts and honoring the memory of the lost comrade, people created improbable scinareos to fit the incorrect facts they had learned from the media and came up with complex recoveries from situations that never existed. All this speculation did was to throw a bit of useless data in every pilot's head that the pilot would have to process and consider if he ever encounters a similar emergency. In this case, the baseless speculation actually made flying more dangerous by delaying other pilots' reaction time by burdening their brains with useless information that needed processing.

    I am sorry, but per the NTSB guidelines for anyone even remotely involved in an accident investigation, I am not in a position to be more specific.
     
  18. Echo7

    Echo7

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    I think it had to do with Physics and Ice....
     
  19. hapuna

    hapuna Trusted Member

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    THat's all good and well but I always start with the obvious and work toward the convoluted in my analysis of a problem. I would start(and I think most pilots would) with the day 1 of ground school solution. Its when the obvious isn't working that the more out there ideas get explored.
    Also I'm not always convinced the NTSB actually finds the cause of most accidents. They give a good guess many times and blame the pilot which in the end is who should get the blame(most of the time). But they don't always know what really happened up there and you can see that reading their summaries.:)
    I'll take information to not having information every time.
     
  20. F14Scott

    F14Scott Luggage CLM

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    I hear what you're saying, but if people want to a) flatly ignore logic, or b) believe in something just because they "seen it on the TV box" (or worse, the Internet), I can neither help them nor do I feel responsible for their ignorance.

    As one who has seen dozens of and participated in several Mishap Investigations, I can safely promise that all the little theories we're tossing around here casually will be formalized and proven or disproven as causal factors. Those who are truly interested will read the MI and understand it. Anyone who doesn't read it probably doesn't really care, anyway.

    I forgot to ask. What do we get if we win the "Guess the Causal Factor" pool?