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Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?

Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by Kozel, Oct 22, 2012.

  1. Kozel

    Kozel

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    Is it just me or weather forecasts are ALWAYS wrong?

    Seems like EVERY time I scheduled some kind of outdoor activity based on weather forecast for next 24 hours I ended up loosing that day. Weatherman on TV should be moved to cartoon channel so that he entertains more people with all his moving maps, dopplers, shmopplers, satellite pictures and weather stations.

    Monday they say that Tuesday is going to be sunny. When it rains all day on Tuesday they say that Wednesday is going to be sunny. Wednesday is same as Tuesday forecast for sunshine moves to Friday.
    Even 12 hours forecast is often wrong!

    Now. I know that weather is not the same thing as climate but basically same people that cannot predict weather 12 hours in advance tell us that hundred of years from now temperature is going to be one degree warmer and we are going to die from Global Warming, Global Climate Change and/or next Ice Age.
     
  2. Lone Wolf8634

    Lone Wolf8634 :):

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    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_IHINU63dk"]George Carlin - Weatherman - napisy PL - YouTube[/ame]
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=D1uaw3WIOlc"]George Carlin 'The Hippy Dippy Weatherman' - YouTube[/ame]
    [ame="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T_IHINU63dk"][/ame]
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012

  3. Tvov

    Tvov

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    Weather forecasts are ridiculous. I look online at the forecast, then run the "Doppler radar" past few hours... and they don't match. I can see where the rain will end up in the next few hours. Seems like most forecasts are all computer generated, and the computer programs just aren't advanced enough to get it right.

    I remember years ago (too many!) watching the weather forecast on TV. The weather man had a felt board with a map of the area, and he would attach by velco clouds and sun where needed. The forecasts seemed much more accurate back then.
     
  4. 1-2man

    1-2man Part Time

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    I wouldn't say always but definitely quite frequently.
     
  5. Dennis in MA

    Dennis in MA Get off my lawn

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    I dunno. I caught a show on Discovery last night that said the government and corporations controlled the weather. So blame Obama AND Romney! :rofl:

    I only watched about 8 minutes, but they said that cloud seeding was the tip of the iceberg and SUCCESSFUL since the 1960's. :rofl:
     
  6. Walk Soft

    Walk Soft

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    You're right.Yesterday they were saying that today it'd be sunny all day with no chance for rain.It has rained twice and have yet to see sun.My job revolves around the weather so I pay attention to what they say,but when I wake in the mornings and look at the radar and what fronts are going where,that's how I procede with the day.
     
  7. Caver 60

    Caver 60

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    Right on. There used to be people who were actual weather forecasters. Now days they just go with what the computer forecast predicts.

    I also do the 'check the forecast/watch the radar loop' trick.

    As a cattle producer, I have found there is another corollary to Murphy's law. "If the weather man says there is a 10 or 20 percent chance of rain, and I have cut hay on the ground to bale tomorrow, there is actually about a 95 percent chance it will rain. But if there is no hay down and we need rain, they can give a 90 percent chance of rain and it won't rain.'

    Where else can you get a job where you're wrong 80 percent of the time, and still keep your job?
     
  8. CitizenOfDreams

    CitizenOfDreams

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    Wall Street?
     
  9. Glock&KimberLady

    Glock&KimberLady Morior Invictus Silver Member

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    I only listen to the Winter Storm Watches/Warnings. Everything else, I rely n radar and sometimes NOAA to give me a general idea.

    My friends all get the weather from me. :cool: Which isn't to say I've never forecasted a foot of snow and gotten a few inches before...
     
  10. devildog2067

    devildog2067

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    What are my chances of predicting the aggregate outcome of 1,000 coin flips? They're pretty darn good.

    What are my chances of predicting the outcome of a single coin flip? They're 50/50 no matter what you do.

    Predicting long term trends is often easier, both scientifically and mathematically, than predicting single events in the near term.
     
  11. RonS

    RonS Millennium Member

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    I expect it depends on where you live. Mine is pretty reliable for a couple of days out. I suspect in parts of Florida for example, "Hot and Sunny with an Afternoon Shower" pretty much works every time.
     
  12. Glock_Convert

    Glock_Convert

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    Uh, the Obama cabinet?:D



    Sent from my DROIDX using Tapatalk 2
     
  13. hockeyrcks9901

    hockeyrcks9901

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    Pretty close in Florida... I go by the 90-90-50 rule. 90 degrees 90% humidity 50% chance of rain. It works most of the year
     
  14. Kozel

    Kozel

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    So, if you cannot predict one event 12 hours in advance then you are much better at predicting trend 100 years from now? Ohhh… it makes sense now! “Scientifically and mathematically” that is.

    How do you say “you are full of it” in scientific language?



    .
     
    Last edited: Oct 22, 2012
  15. devildog2067

    devildog2067

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    I gave what I thought was a very easy to understand, concrete example.

    Imagine I flip a coin 100 times. It's impossible to predict (better than 50/50) what the outcome of any particular coin toss will be, whether it's the first one or the 100th one.

    However, I *can* easily predict that about half of the tosses will come up heads and about half will come up tails.

    By analogy (and I understand this isn't an exact analogy) it's difficult to predict the temperature tomorrow. It's essentially impossible to predict the temperature 100 days from now.

    However, it's reasonably doable to predict the average temperature for the next 100 days (i.e., "it'll be a mild winter" or "we think this summer will be hotter than usual").

    There's a difference between predicting the outcome of a single event or the value of a single data point, and predicting an average or overall trend.

    No matter how much you'd like to make fun of it, my statement is both scientifically and mathematically true.
     
  16. devildog2067

    devildog2067

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    "Kozel"
     
  17. Resqu2

    Resqu2

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    Heard someone say if they gave the weatherman a window in his office the forecast would immediately improve, I believe that.
     
  18. Kozel

    Kozel

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    What are you doing for a living?

    You must be a weatherman!

    Talk a lot and make absolutely no sense! It is your job!
     
  19. devildog2067

    devildog2067

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    I have a feeling most of GT will follow that explanation just fine. Are coin flips too complicated for you to understand?
     
  20. inthefrey

    inthefrey Moved on...

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