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Interesting take on a major factor in the ammo shortage

  1. Ever wonder where components come from? Watch to the middle of the video.

     
  2. Interesting video. It was a little surprising when he said that we are so dependent on Turkey for primers. Thus I did some research (it appears to confirm the primer storage).

    Here is an interesting article from Guns & Ammo (August 12, 2020):

    Link:
    https://www.gunsandammo.com/editorial/great-primer-shortage-2020/383204

    Three paragraphs from the article:

    "It’s no secret that the demand for firearms and ammunition has reached record levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the civil unrest in cities around the United States, and the prospect of an anti-gun president on the horizon. As with previous surges in ammunition sales, primers are the current weak link in the supply chain. After interviewing several manufacturers, Guns & Ammo has learned that the lack of primer supply is a part of what’s preventing ammunition makers from meeting this unprecedented demand."

    "Bullets are relatively simple to produce. Brass cases can be reused and powder is still plentiful. Hence, primer production is the bottleneck in ammunition production process. Though there are dozens of major and minor ammunition manufacturers in the U.S., only four domestic manufacturers produce primers: Federal, CCI, Remington and Winchester. Those four firms feed the entire primer supply including ammunition sold to the military and law enforcement. Millions upon millions of primers are produced every year by these companies."

    "Internationally, primers are manufactured by several firms in different parts of the world. Armscor in the Philippines, for example, Sellier & Bellot in the Czech Republic, Fiocchi in Italy and JSC in Russia are some of the more prominent companies. An industry insider told G&A that several million primers are currently en route from Europe to the U.S. by way of ship, which may help meet at least some of the demand for loaded ammunition. Still, those primers need to arrive, be offloaded, clear customs and then be distributed to the various manufacturers who can use them to produce ammunition. This will take time." ;)
     
  3. It's somewhat of a misnomer that there is an ammo shortage. As I type this there are 132 pages ( 24 auctions per page ) of 9mm auctions over on Gunbroker alone . It can also be found @ Auction Arms, Armslist, et al. Ammunitionstore.com usually has it too. Yes, it's all ridiculously overpriced but it's there. Many small outlets have turned their remaining stock to places like GB because they can and do make more $ via that route. Obviously, in time what there is will dry up unless something changes.
     
  4. Im calling bs. A high volume ammo seller doesnt buy 6000rds, he buys a pallet. Small dealers buy from jobbers, jobbers buy factory direct.
    It doesnt explain that the 4 major manuf in the USA that make primers dont have any. I do believe raw matl for making primers is in short supply because of covid shutdowns. Btw, a few million primers from fiocii or s&b wont matter much.
     
  5. What about .22LR? No primer there.
     

  6. Yes this guy sounds like he is just trying to justify higher ammo costs. The shortage was caused due the election run on ammo starting 6 or 7 months sooner than expected and greater demand than expected.
     
  7. P & Q analysis.
    Step 1: fear (or you pick it) shifts demand schedule.
    Step 2: for whatever the reason (primer shortage?) the inelastic supply schedule has the following results - graph #1. For drama visualize a perfectly inelastic (vertical) supply schedule.
    :cheers:

    demand supply.jpg
     
  8. Oh yea, now I get it...thanks!

    upload_2020-9-23_10-13-57.png
     
  9. First Covid, then BLM/Antifa riots, then the election. And I bet supply is pretty inelastic.

     
  10. [​IMG]
     
  11. Several million are on their way from Europe? That’s nothing, and I’m not even joking. The guy who runs a small hobby store here in Wichita said he moved 5 million in a week or two, and half that in bullets during the same period. I don’t think several million would keep Federal, for example, making ammo for more than a day or two (speculation on my part).

    There are thousands of reloaders who would buy 10k primers right now if the price was right. Many others (lots of new gun owners) would buy all the factory ammo they could afford if the price was right. Several million is but a drop in the bucket.
     
  12. I disagree. Demand has spiked considerably and production probably dropped off due to covid. Even if production stayed the same, or even increased, there’s a shortage if it’s not meeting new demand.

    The presence of those auctions (especially with their inflated pricing) is actually proof of the shortage.
     
  13. About the same primer mat'l as a small pistol & as far as I know, 22lr is still pretty available.
     
  14. I have a buddy right now with a connection trying to put together a 120K sp primer order for our group. The smallest amount anyone should buy right now is 10K & I think that is too little but if that is all you can get, get it. I need zero but if he puts the deal together, I am in for 10-15K.
     
  15. Thats the same formula I used and came to the same conclusion
     
  16. This thread was interesting till the math showed up.


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  17. Well you can buy almost anything that is in short supply if you're willing to pay. But it's still in short supply.
     
  18. A small, local ammo manufacturer told me today they have 14.5 million primers stuck in Bosnia because of the pandemic. That’s the same as not having any.
     
  19. S&B? There is allegedly millions off shore from Fiocchi & s&b, probably tula too. Same as not being here though.
     
  20. It's none of those. It's a brand I've never heard of, and I can't recall what it is.
     
  21. Hmm, interested to know. I am pretty sure the 4 majore ammo makers here all make their own primers.
     

  22. PPU / PRVI ?
     
  23. I have about 3k Ginex SPP remaining from a 20k purchase I made just after beginning to reload. They were just under $.02 per several years ago. The last place I remember seeing them for sale was Graf & Sons, but for some reason they have not been showing in my searches for some time. The quality was comparable to CCI, and no problems being hard to seat like S&B. The packaging isn't the best.
    [​IMG]
     

  24. I respect your viewpoint and understand your take on it. I believe there's a fair chance that we are talking about two different things here . Supply numbers keeping up ( which I admit are not ) with demand vs. only what is still available.

    I do not dispute that demand has increased nor that production has decreased. What I only meant was that there are still vast amounts of ammo still available for purchase from a number of sites and again, where there used to be 25-30 pages of 9mm ammo auctions over just @ GB pre Covid19 there are currently 139 pages which is a fair increase in what is available in just one day. A lot of retailers moved / are moving their stock to auction sites when this all hit. If they hadn't there would still be places where it would be " in stock ". And too, more private individuals are selling stashes as well. I also would not be surprised to learn that huge stock piles exist that some sellers are sitting on speculating that as things get even nuttier they'll be able to command even more than the current crazy price and are now starting to release some of it.
     
  25. There are a lot of opportunists out there. So selling ammo on gb is not really readly available ammo. When most lgs have no ammo, when major online sources have no ammo, I would certainly call that a shortage.
    I know guys sitting on 120k small pistol primers. They are selling on GB for $100/1k. They are considering selling 20-30k since they paid about $20/1k. You cant find them anywhere else. Available, if you consider at 3-4x the price, sort of available. In worst of times everuthing is available if you have enough $$$.
     
  26. The thing that jumps out at me as potentially making your point is the idea that retailers would show out of stock when in reality they have ammo but are selling it at auction. However, this, to me, again, just means that their stock is very low and they’re trying to maximize what they can get for those few remaining boxes.

    139 pages of auctions doesn’t impress me. There are literally millions of people looking for ammo. Heck, there may be millions of people looking who hadn’t touched a gun before April of this year.

    Again, I would expect the auctions to increase when shortages occur. Who’s going to buy at auction when the shelves are stocked with cheap ammo? Yes, there are trillions of rounds of ammo in the hands of Americans, but are you willing to give yours up in this climate? Or would you feel better if you could pad your stash? In general, the only people wanting to get rid of ammo are those with terminal illnesses. Of course everyone has their price, these insane prices are motivating some people to let some go.
     

  27. Those poor souls in dire need may not like the prices but it is still readily ( according to Webster's ) available even as zany as they are. The jury is out on how long it will be readily / easily available even at sky high price.

    Good debate.
     
  28. Schrag4, I see you are in Wichita. Past years saw a car load of us from here going down a few times and attending the big gun show ( Chisum Trail ? ) @ the KS Coliseum there north of town. Is it still going ?

    One year on the same day they had it there and one in town at the auditorium . We hit both shows.

    Regards.
     
  29. Agreed. Im betting I know the guy you speak of and he moves a lot of components out of a small area.

    How many shops like that are nation wide and how many are buying more than they need to have on hand or to sell.

    I know I overbought several years ago myself.
     
  30. I saw that wichita has 2 shows coming up. 1 in September and 1 in October
     
  31. I guess it all depends on what you consider "vast amounts". If every major online ammo retailer is showing zero stock, there is a shortage. Those small dealers who moved their stock to GB sales represent a drop in the proverbial bucket as far as supply is concerned.
     
  32. Your definition of readily is diff than mine or ole Webster. Affordable & available = readily.
     
  33. No such thing if you actually will use them.
     
  34. I guess you'll have to take it up with them and educate them on how wrong they have been on it's definition all these years. Last time, no it's not cheap but it is easily, readily found yet. No mention from Webster on " affordable " but then what did he know ?

    From their site :

    Noah Webster

    Readily
    READILY, adverb red'ily. [See Ready.]

    1. Quickly; promptly; easily
     
  35. Well we could go around & around on this but cost is a factor & Webster ignores that, shame on them. Cost is a direct factor in the availability of anything.
     
  36. The one thing this thread is missing, Remington went bust.

    No ammo, components coming out of Big Green and who knows when if ever they’ll be making new product.


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  37. Turkey is not our friend. Hopefully some smart and rich guys will invest in primer manufacturing in the USA.
     

  38. Fred, just listen and read this before being worried about always having to have the last word on everything. I'm sure for the right $ a new private plane from someone would be available . No, I cannot afford it but that makes it no less available. They are two totally different things. I'm done on this one.
     
  39. I believe they've moved the Chisolm Trail gun show across the highway to the new Hartman Arena. The KS Coliseum isn't really the coliseum anymore. They decided to build Intrust Arena downtown (to replace the KS Coliseium), and there you have to walk through a not-so-great part of town completely unarmed if you're going to the Arena. Metal detectors at the door, you can't even have a pocket knife on you. A guy I talked to at a local IDPA match said they gave him crap for having a fish hook in his hat, said it was considered a weapon.
     
  40. Too bad about the one downtown. For our reasonable driving distance options it is a great show. One 400 table show is Nebraska's largest.

    Thanks for the info & stay healthy. Now, I am out for good on this . I promise. :)
     
  41. Well thx for proving my point. Cost makes the plane unavailable to YOU. You can defend your statement anyway you want but you know right from wrong on this. Its not about getting the last word its about being factual.
     
  42. The last minus sign in line 3 should be a plus sign. You all need to recalculate everything.
     
  43. Shortages are caused by hoarders.

    I know a guy that has over 20,000 rounds factory ammo and he never ever shoots, not even a box of 50 a year.

    Reloaders that shoot a lot, 20,000 is a high number but not out of the ordinary.

    A few years back I did a run of 10,000 on my 1050. I'll never do that again but I'm sure some folks out there do this all the time.
     
  44. Nothing new here. Just an all time bad year. This is common on election years. There are other manufacturers besides those big four that produce in house primers. Military contract demand has been high this year too. Primers and case supply issues go all the way back at least 40 years. Next will be copper and lead. Federal’s syntech is ahead of the game for target rounds. They see the future on that one. Same with ARX. Ammo production also rotates seasonally. Lots of machines have been swapped to produce shotgun shells and rifle rounds for hunters. The next big pistol ammo run for civilian sales will happen around the holidays and on the new year the shelves will see some ammo again. Just be patient. The last few years had been good and we forgot this. But think back to 2012/2013 and 2015/2016. With your spare time learn to gunsmith and stock up on gunsmithing tools. Or grab a mantis and dry fire all day. That will make those few rounds you have count more. We can’t all be youtubers getting to blast sponsored ammo.
     
  45. I saw that Palmetto State Armory acquired or will aquire Remington ammo
     
  46. So who decides what is quick and easy?
     
  47. There are a few hoarders but that isnt depleating the supply. Most people wont park $6000 of something they wont use. Same can be said for primers for reloaders, but you can stash a lot of primers for $1000 which is not out of reach for working stiffs trying to be prepared.
    A buddy of mine is working a deal for 120-150k small pistol primers for our shooting group. I dont need any, but I'm in for at 10-20k.
     
  48. If you knew your customers were flipping it on GB and AL would you circumvent that by selling it yourself?

    Was waiting in line with about 10 people waiting for BassPro to open up. When the doors were unlocked all 10 scurried to back of the store and the ammo likes rats in a maze. IMHO most people are buying up ammo for 2 reasons, fear of missing out (FOMO) or they're trying to capitalize on the shortage. It'll be just like the TP shortage, once people realize they're not crapping any more often than they were shelves will begin to fill.
     
  49. I hope it’s like the TP shortage. I thought that would last 2 weeks and it ended up being more like 6 weeks in my area (I realize some areas had longer shortages). I would be happy if ammo started showing up again before the end of the year. I’m not all that optimistic, though. The shortage that kicked off in 2012 was different than this time around, but it lasted much longer than we’ve gone through this year, yet. I seem to remember standing in lines waiting for stores to open all the way through the summer of 2013, at least. I was just getting into shooting around that time, so I didn’t have as much ammo (or any reloading equipment) like I have now.
     
  50. It isnt like tp, this is diff. I really dont think its better until next summer. Trump winning might shorten that a bit, like march/april, but the way it was last jan, no.