Interesting take on a major factor in the ammo shortage

Discussion in 'Caliber Corner' started by BBMW, Sep 22, 2020.

  1. BBMW

    BBMW

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    Ever wonder where components come from? Watch to the middle of the video.

     
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  2. ActanonVerba70

    ActanonVerba70

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    Interesting video. It was a little surprising when he said that we are so dependent on Turkey for primers. Thus I did some research (it appears to confirm the primer storage).

    Here is an interesting article from Guns & Ammo (August 12, 2020):

    Link:
    https://www.gunsandammo.com/editorial/great-primer-shortage-2020/383204

    Three paragraphs from the article:

    "It’s no secret that the demand for firearms and ammunition has reached record levels due to the COVID-19 pandemic, the civil unrest in cities around the United States, and the prospect of an anti-gun president on the horizon. As with previous surges in ammunition sales, primers are the current weak link in the supply chain. After interviewing several manufacturers, Guns & Ammo has learned that the lack of primer supply is a part of what’s preventing ammunition makers from meeting this unprecedented demand."

    "Bullets are relatively simple to produce. Brass cases can be reused and powder is still plentiful. Hence, primer production is the bottleneck in ammunition production process. Though there are dozens of major and minor ammunition manufacturers in the U.S., only four domestic manufacturers produce primers: Federal, CCI, Remington and Winchester. Those four firms feed the entire primer supply including ammunition sold to the military and law enforcement. Millions upon millions of primers are produced every year by these companies."

    "Internationally, primers are manufactured by several firms in different parts of the world. Armscor in the Philippines, for example, Sellier & Bellot in the Czech Republic, Fiocchi in Italy and JSC in Russia are some of the more prominent companies. An industry insider told G&A that several million primers are currently en route from Europe to the U.S. by way of ship, which may help meet at least some of the demand for loaded ammunition. Still, those primers need to arrive, be offloaded, clear customs and then be distributed to the various manufacturers who can use them to produce ammunition. This will take time." ;)
     
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  3. micki1958

    micki1958

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    It's somewhat of a misnomer that there is an ammo shortage. As I type this there are 132 pages ( 24 auctions per page ) of 9mm auctions over on Gunbroker alone . It can also be found @ Auction Arms, Armslist, et al. Ammunitionstore.com usually has it too. Yes, it's all ridiculously overpriced but it's there. Many small outlets have turned their remaining stock to places like GB because they can and do make more $ via that route. Obviously, in time what there is will dry up unless something changes.
     
    Last edited: Sep 22, 2020
  4. fredj338

    fredj338

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    Im calling bs. A high volume ammo seller doesnt buy 6000rds, he buys a pallet. Small dealers buy from jobbers, jobbers buy factory direct.
    It doesnt explain that the 4 major manuf in the USA that make primers dont have any. I do believe raw matl for making primers is in short supply because of covid shutdowns. Btw, a few million primers from fiocii or s&b wont matter much.
     
    Last edited: Sep 23, 2020
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  5. Doc Holliday

    Doc Holliday CLM

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    What about .22LR? No primer there.
     
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  6. Railsplitter

    Railsplitter

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    Yes this guy sounds like he is just trying to justify higher ammo costs. The shortage was caused due the election run on ammo starting 6 or 7 months sooner than expected and greater demand than expected.
     
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  7. Fatboy2001

    Fatboy2001

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    P & Q analysis.
    Step 1: fear (or you pick it) shifts demand schedule.
    Step 2: for whatever the reason (primer shortage?) the inelastic supply schedule has the following results - graph #1. For drama visualize a perfectly inelastic (vertical) supply schedule.
    :cheers:

    demand supply.jpg
     
  8. Doc Holliday

    Doc Holliday CLM

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    Oh yea, now I get it...thanks!

    upload_2020-9-23_10-13-57.png
     
  9. BBMW

    BBMW

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    First Covid, then BLM/Antifa riots, then the election. And I bet supply is pretty inelastic.

     
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  10. familyman357

    familyman357 I'd be more cynical, but my apathy prevents it.

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  11. Schrag4

    Schrag4

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    Several million are on their way from Europe? That’s nothing, and I’m not even joking. The guy who runs a small hobby store here in Wichita said he moved 5 million in a week or two, and half that in bullets during the same period. I don’t think several million would keep Federal, for example, making ammo for more than a day or two (speculation on my part).

    There are thousands of reloaders who would buy 10k primers right now if the price was right. Many others (lots of new gun owners) would buy all the factory ammo they could afford if the price was right. Several million is but a drop in the bucket.
     
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  12. Schrag4

    Schrag4

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    I disagree. Demand has spiked considerably and production probably dropped off due to covid. Even if production stayed the same, or even increased, there’s a shortage if it’s not meeting new demand.

    The presence of those auctions (especially with their inflated pricing) is actually proof of the shortage.
     
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  13. fredj338

    fredj338

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    About the same primer mat'l as a small pistol & as far as I know, 22lr is still pretty available.
     
  14. fredj338

    fredj338

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    I have a buddy right now with a connection trying to put together a 120K sp primer order for our group. The smallest amount anyone should buy right now is 10K & I think that is too little but if that is all you can get, get it. I need zero but if he puts the deal together, I am in for 10-15K.
     
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  15. Wojo88

    Wojo88

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    Thats the same formula I used and came to the same conclusion
     
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  16. PeterG

    PeterG

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    This thread was interesting till the math showed up.


    Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
     
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  17. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

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    Well you can buy almost anything that is in short supply if you're willing to pay. But it's still in short supply.
     
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  18. Scott1970

    Scott1970

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    A small, local ammo manufacturer told me today they have 14.5 million primers stuck in Bosnia because of the pandemic. That’s the same as not having any.
     
  19. fredj338

    fredj338

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    S&B? There is allegedly millions off shore from Fiocchi & s&b, probably tula too. Same as not being here though.
     
  20. Scott1970

    Scott1970

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    It's none of those. It's a brand I've never heard of, and I can't recall what it is.