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Discussion in 'The Okie Corral' started by RWBlue, Feb 24, 2020.
Search "stock market circuit breaker"
Even after today we are still way over what I consider to be fair value - if you use any historical measures.
But of course valuations don't matter - until they do.
Maybe the FED will cut interest rates and print a few hundred billion doses of corona virus vaccine.
S&P500 stocks are valued 2.3X revenue -- historical average is closer to 1.5x
PE is over 24 - historical average is around 15
I keep my investments in guns and bullets. no worries aboot the market , anyways when I retired I will go back to my home land El Mejico!!!! my $100.00 a month will go far there.
No, I mean a full 40% from high. Election levels 2016. Happens all the time. I wouldn’t buy anything before then.
Be prepared not to buy stock any time when it might still have a chance to do you some good.
The market could easily correct 20% and then go on to eventually double or triple in value.
Remember when dow 20k was considered a high point? Lol
every dip between 1997 and 2008 was a mistake to buy. Even 2003.
This mkt has been on steroids for 10 yrs.
there is no Rush.
I think the markets may be in for a rough ride until after the election and even then a lot will depend on what is happening with the coronavirus.
I think the reality that Trump is almost a shoe-in for re-election is helping a lot. Can you imagine if the dems were actually running someone that might have a chance?
I'm a leery investor, we start with that. You say it always comes back. Yes, the market has always bounced back. But individuals aren't invested in the whole market. Sometimes their particular stocks or funds don't make it back. I've seen that personally. So just because the market goes up (or down) doesn't mean everyone gets those same results.
Maybe I was just unlucky or a poor picker or funds.
That’s an understandable position to take.
But if you’re not somebody with the experience, time, or resources to do your own picking (which is most people) you can just buy an S&P500 index fund and basically own the market. You’ll still do pretty well.
In addition, the fees for this type of fund should be next to nothing. It’s really a great option for most.
Another option are target date funds that automatically rebalance to be more conservative as you approach retirement. It’s a great fire and forget option for people who don’t follow the markets.
For fooks sake. Just talked to a financial planner last week, told me to move a big chunk of my 401k from the account with 100% stock market to the one that is only 60%. Didn't do that until this morning. Hope it got in under the wire! lol
Oh come on.
If you are trading or trying to time the marker, some of your above comments may make sense. Otherwise unless you are very knowledgeable and involved on a daily basis it’s a recipe to lose your money.
If you are an investor for the longer term the best advice is be diversified, hold still, think about companies that may now be undervalued that you want to own; maybe look at what has disappointed and trim.
One thing for sure over the longer term markets go up.
Your money / investments should be diversified anyway. Depending on your time horizon and risk tolerance say 40%- 60% Equity
5%- 10% Cash
..... and the rest in Fixed Income Type Vehicles.
No matter how $hitty you think the US market may be ( or how overvalued) it is the best game on the planet.
Money from all over the world is looking for a safe haven and is coming here or is already here sitting on the sidelines.
So it goes down 3-5%- 10% on Corona virus concerns. This too will pass............
I'm just worried that if it doesn't pick back up by November the Dems will use the down market against President Trump. But it has bounced back a little bit today from the lows.
Then I would say you are a victim of very poor investment advice. Invest in a S&P 500 no load index fund or a Total Market no load index fund and that will resolve that single stock problem. Index funds have outperformed well over 90% of the stocks and managed funds over history and is really the best way to invest. And never, ever, ever pay a load or a commission to a broker for investments.
Don't talk like that!!! That's "HILLARY-TALK" from 4 years ago and you know what happened then! Push all the way and vote! Get off your nether region and Vote for Trump! Don't get comfortable!
I read a very compelling article from a Wall Street guy and he said sell all your stocks, put them in bonds, and maybe, maybe, invest in some small bio and pharmaceutical companies, and those companies that deal in medical supplies and plastics. The virus requires a LOT of plastic to handle.
He expects a rather large recession/correction that could take a long, long time to recover from. This is all new territory, as the last time this happened was 1918 Spanish flu... the stock market was minimal back then comparatively. There was no global supply chain back then, parts and materials were sourced locally.
Going off of intuition, I moved $500,000 out of index funds last week into bonds, and so far, so good.
I think you will continue to see a massive sell off and moving of funds to bonds and gold.
With less demand, oil is down 4% today.
History imply’s that election years are usually “up” years.
Incumbents know that a driver of their re-elect is the economy and security and make sure it is so.
We have a specific concern over a issue which is generally not understood. The market does not like uncertainty or the unknown.
Exactly. What they sell you is that it always goes up. Well, if you bought a bunch of tech stocks in the late 90’s you had a decade of excuses. If you were retired and we’re making withdrawals you went broke. Meanwhile bonds were a great investment.
Most people have no experience investing, taking risk, and should not be in the mkt unless their time horizon is at least 10 yrs.
For the most part I think we agree. If you are not "in the market" handling your own investments this isn't the conversation for you.
As far as the detail, I think we disagree.
S&P 500 index is good, but so is the Nasdaq Index.
US market is good, but investing in foreign markets has been very good to many. (Maybe 10%)
The close to retirement the less aggressive. This means more bonds, less stocks. This means a dividend fund, vs. index.
In the end, the "years to retirement" funds are not bad for those not into the market.