Homicide Stats Show ‘Minneapolis Effect’

Discussion in 'Cop Talk' started by ronduke, Sep 20, 2020.

  1. ronduke

    ronduke

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  2. ronduke

    ronduke

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    Cities across the country suffered dramatic increases in homicides this summer. The spikes were remarkable, suddenly appearing and widespread, although often concentrated in disadvantaged neighborhoods. This year is on track to be the deadliest year for gun-related homicides since at least 1999.

    The homicide spikes began in late May. Before May 28, Chicago had almost the same number of homicides as in 2019. Then, on May 31, 18 people were murdered in Chicago—the city’s most violent day in six decades. Violence continued through the summer. July was Chicago’s most violent month in 28 years. As of Sept. 1, murder is up 52% for the year, according to Chicago Police Department data.

    Chicago’s shooting spike reflects what is happening in many major cities across the country. Researchers have identified a “structural break” in homicide numbers, beginning in the last week of May. Trends for most other major crime categories have remained generally stable or moved slightly downward.


    What changed in late May? The antipolice protests that began across the country around May 27 appear to have resulted in a decline in policing directed at gun violence, producing—perhaps unsurprisingly—an increase in shootings.
    The sequence of events is straightforward. George Floyd’s death while in police custody in Minneapolis produced demonstrations against the police in major cities from coast to coast. As a result, officers in most cities had to be redeployed from their normal duties to help manage the protests, some of which turned violent.

    Even as the demonstrations abated, what is commonly called “proactive” policing declined. Police department data show that street and vehicle stops in Minneapolis and Philadelphia dropped sharply in June. In Chicago and New York, arrests declined steeply. And in cities around the country, both law-enforcement and citizen reports suggest a general reluctance by officers to engage in hot-spot and other enforcement efforts that are most effective in deterring gun violence.

    The idea that reductions in policing might be leading to more shootings has historical precedent. Heather Mac Donaldproposed a “Ferguson Effect” in May 2015 to explain homicide increases in the aftermath of antipolice protests following Michael Brown’s death in Ferguson, Mo., the previous year. Similarly, my research with Richard Fowles identified declines in police street stops as the triggering event for the 2016 homicide spike in Chicago. Beginning in late 2015, pursuant to an agreement with the American Civil Liberties Union, Chicago police significantly reduced stop-and-frisks in the city. The result was a deadly homicide spike the following year.

    The pattern in Chicago in 2016—a dramatic spike in shootings and homicides but not other crimes—is the pattern in many cities across America today. What Chicago suffered in 2016 is playing out across a much larger stage today—a new and deadly “Minneapolis Effect.”

    My recent research quantifies the size of this summer’s Minneapolis Effect, estimating that reduced proactive policing resulted in about 710 more homicides and 2,800 more shootings in June and July alone. The victims of these crimes are disproportionately African-American and Hispanic, often living in disadvantaged and low-income neighborhoods.

    While these estimates are stated in the cold precision of an economic calculation, behind the numbers lies a tremendous toll in human suffering—lives lost, futures destroyed and families left grieving. The nation’s recent homicide spikes require urgent attention. Even more urgently, the nation needs to consider all possible responses to this tragedy, including a restoration of proactive law-enforcement efforts aimed at reducing gun violence.

    Mr. Cassell is a professor at the University of Utah’s S.J. Quinney College of Law.
     
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  3. blueiron

    blueiron

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    As usual, don't examine the other variable. Until Americans are willing to address the fools that embrace prison culture and anti-social behaviors, we will never be able to examine the problems before us.
     
  4. SAR

    SAR CLM

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    For us, I think it’s more the “Covid effect.” We haven’t slowed down on proactive policing and we’re actively putting bad guys in jail, however, there are a lot of people not currently working and a combination of idle time, boredom and a little bit of cabin fever is a volatile mix. Our homicides are up 14.7% year to date, which is not really too bad and could almost be a cyclical issue.
     
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  5. collim1

    collim1

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    The logistics of working 16 murders in one day is mind boggling to me.

    A murder at my agency is an all hands on deck event and usually involves OT for everyone involved for several days, and that’s if a suspect in known and/or in custody. A murder with no suspect may require a solid week or more of work for everyone involved.
     
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  6. SAR

    SAR CLM

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    It’s not really mind boggling when you consider that many larger agencies have many separate autonomous homicide units, each capable of handling a couple of homicides on any given day. On my agency, if you can believe this, a homicide could happen one Division over and you might not even hear about it during your working shift unless there was a direct connection to your area. There is a homicide unit located a floor up from me, and I only know a couple of them. I rarely speak to them and their focus is strictly on Homicide investigations, nothing else.
     
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  7. thewitt

    thewitt

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    I just read a very disturbing article that Piece County in Washington State is not locking away non-violent criminals because of COVID, and that means if they have outstanding warrants and are picked up for new crimes, they are simply let go.

    The story was about a parking lot break in where a car was robbed. The thieves (2 of them) were identified and located across the street breaking into cars in another parking lot.

    Both were arrested. Both had several outstanding warrants. Both were back on the street in an hour.

    Who thinks they won't go right back to stealing from cars in broad daylight.

    When they cross the wrong person, there will be a violent crime... or maybe 2 of them.
     
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  8. SAR

    SAR CLM

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    Where have you been? This has been going on in a lot of places. In our city, only certain violent crimes carry a bail. The rest are zero bail and are released on their own recognizance just as soon as they are processed.
     
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  9. fastbolt

    fastbolt

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    While this could also involve what might be roughly described as a social cyclic effect (ebb & flow of violent crime and new generations involved in it), it makes you wonder whether there's also some far reaching, lingering effect of fallout from a beer summit ...
     
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  10. CAcop

    CAcop

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    There are likely a number of factors. Ferguson and beyond hasn't helped. Places like Chicago have DAs that toss gun charges so the arrested are out and about with a new gun rather than being in time out in jail for at least a few months. Covid bail has kept people out on the streets. Police are going reactive as a career survival tool. Covid didn't help with that either. If you aren't looking for smaller things that turn into jail time then there are people out there that wouldn't be.

    Its a lot of things combining into a perfect storm. It will not be fixed until society wants it fixed. I think society is ok with it because it is "over there with those people." And good little liberals are saying that.
     
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