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Here it comes: We're in the chute...

Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by G29Reload, Jun 10, 2012.

  1. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

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    Ok, the big moment is approaching.

    Here is what to look for.


    The Supreme Court typically delivers its opinions at 10am on Mondays, with the most contentious cases being last.

    So, set your DVR's. I go with Fox News.

    As early as tomorrow, 6/11, but more likely:

    6/18 or

    6/25,

    We should have the opinion on the alleged "Affordable Care Act" or in typical shorthand, the healthcare law, spawn of Satan (Nancy Pelosi) and her lapdog, Barack Hussein Obama.

    Ladies and Gentleman, Place your bets!

    There are two phases in which the court was asked to decide:

    1. The personal mandate,

    2. The rest of the body of the law as signed.

    They can go different ways. I make the following prediction:

    1. The personal mandate: Overturned. Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, Alito, Kennedy. I predict based on reactions during oral arguments that better than 50% chance Breyer joins, giving us a 6-3 tossing out the personal mandate. Scalia or Roberts write the opinion. I PRAY that its Scalia, he can bring the pointed snark. If you want to hear editorial content and a cohesive, intelligent and direct (as it can get, the SCOTUS does NOT comment on opinions outside the Court) smackdown to Obama, Pelosi and Leahy, here is where you will hear it. It may be elegantly worded, it WILL have technical detail as to why, and since Obama, Pelosi and Leahy are such legal illiterates, he will probably go to the tedium of having to cite Marbury v. Madison to cement judicial review, since they seem to have forgotten it.

    2. The remainder: Overturned, 5-4, Thomas, Scalia, Roberts, Alito, Kennedy, with a possible join by Breyer, odds less than 50%.

    It will be beyond a mess if the mandate is struck down and the rest of the law is not, as the law is built on the personal mandate. It completely falls apart otherwise.

    Kagan, Sotomayor, Ginsburg all dissent, with Ginsburg a possible wildcard. I predict Kagan will write the dissent, or possibly the wise Latina.The dissent will have to be about as warped and entertaining as the oral arguments, everything but handstands in order to justify or defend the illogic of the whole mess complete with its contradictions. Otherwise, it will just go shallow and cite general principles since getting too far into the details will require them explaining the unexplainable.

    The night of the decision you should try and listen to Mark Levin to get a dissertation on how it all went down.


    That's my story and I'm sticking to it. You heard it here first.

    Place your bets!
     
    Last edited: Jun 24, 2012
  2. Cavalry Doc

    Cavalry Doc MAJ (USA Ret.)

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    Can I place my bet after it's been announced?
     

  3. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

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    No Mr. Obama, that would be cheating!
     
  4. Just1More

    Just1More

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    It's payback time for Obama scolding them publicly at the State of the Union address!
     
  5. Cavalry Doc

    Cavalry Doc MAJ (USA Ret.)

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    Oh well, the crystal ball is in the shop. :wavey:

    They will come out with a decision, and it will probably fall short of a complete repeal.
     
  6. Gundude

    Gundude

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    While the rest of the law is unworkable without the mandate, is it within the purview of the SC to throw it out on that basis?

    Even if they don't overturn the rest of it, congress would have to, because there's no way the insurance companies will be forced to provide pre-existing condition coverage without the mandate.
     
  7. aircarver

    aircarver Descent Terminated Silver Member

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    S' OK ... The race track wouldn't let me do that either .... :supergrin:

    .
     
  8. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

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    Depends on how it affects the Commerce Clause. And other issues that are beyond my legal comprehension.

    Scalia was ready to throw it out without reading it because it was so huge and incomprehensible.
     
  9. aircarver

    aircarver Descent Terminated Silver Member

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    Pelosi thought she finally had someone who had to read it ! ..... :supergrin:

    .
     
  10. HexHead

    HexHead

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    That's why I think Alito might get to write the decision striking down the bill. Payback's a *****.
     
  11. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

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    Possible. I'm also thinking Roberts may write the opinion since he's the Chief Justice to shield the others, not that there's anything that can be done to them.
     
  12. Cavalry Doc

    Cavalry Doc MAJ (USA Ret.)

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    I think I'll be happy if Roberts or Alito is writing the MAJORITY opinion. We'll have to wait and see though.
     
  13. JBnTX

    JBnTX 2 Timothy 2:15

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    I put ten dollars on this.

    It's time to put Obama in his place.
     
  14. HexHead

    HexHead

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    Here's how severability in this case was explained by Judge Napolitano. Congress, in one of the earlier versions of the bill had a severability clause included in it. Boilerplate in most contracts, it means if one part of the contract or in this case bill is declared null or void, the rest of the contract or bill stands.

    However, the final version omitted the severability language. So now, the question the before the SCOTUS is whether or not the ACA would have been voted on and passed without the individual mandate? If not, under the letter of the law, the entire bill must be thrown out. Since the individual mandate was the primary funding mechanism for the ACA, it's hard to see how it would have been voted in without it.
     
  15. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

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    Thanks for the reminder! Good stuff, great point!

    So, yes, when the mandate is thrown out, it should by definition ALL get thrown out. In its entirety.

    With any intellectual honesty and real law degree? It should get tossed 9-0.

    Anyone voting in the minority should lose their law license because they're a) idiots b)dishonest c) just plain incompetent.
     
  16. Gunnut 45/454

    Gunnut 45/454

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    I'm praying for a birthday present of complete over turn on the 11th. If it's 5-4 or 6-3 doesn't matter though 6-3 would be more to my liking as it will just isolate the Progressive Liberals on the court more and show there true colors as against the COTUS!:supergrin:
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2012
  17. HarlDane

    HarlDane

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    Because of the magnitude of the issue, if it's struck down, Roberts will write the opinion and will do so in the narrowest possible way, especially if he can get a lefty or two on board. For better or worse, he's a consensus builder who prefers to see the court move slowly, especially on controversial issues.
     
    Last edited: Jun 10, 2012
  18. Jerry

    Jerry Staff Member Moderator Millennium Member

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    Yet Ruth Bader Ginsburg is still a justice. :upeyes:
     
  19. countrygun

    countrygun

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    I think HH is on this one. The first part is ALMOST obvious, but without it, it is not the bill that was passed. severability is one thing in a civil contract, but quite another in passing a law. The POTUS doesn't have a line item veto on spending bills why should any other branch have the same thing?
     
  20. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

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    Its going to be exciting either way.

    I do beleive we'll prevail and it will be thrown out.


    God help us if its not. We'll never be able to live down the smug of nazi pelosi.