Glock Forum - GlockTalk banner

1 - 20 of 100 Posts

·
Banned
Joined
·
35,021 Posts
Discussion Starter · #1 · (Edited)
So lets keep this simple.

The government says
1. We need to shut everything down
2. We should/shall wear masks in public

We also know that there is no vaccine for COVID19

I think those three statements everyone agrees are true?

Now with no vaccine, herd immunity takes over to stop spread of a given disease.

Lets look at a site that put out what appears a rational explanation of herd immunity from BEFORE COVD19. I chose BEFORE so it is less influenced by politics and panic.

https://theconversation.com/what-is...o-be-vaccinated-to-protect-a-community-116355

They claim:
"Measles is one of the most infectious diseases to affect humans with an Ro of 12-18. To achieve herd immunity to measles in a population we need 92-95% of the population to be vaccinated."

They also claim the following for herd immunity:
Herd immunity threshold:
Disease | Reproduction number (Ro) | Vaccine coverage needed
Diphtheria | 6-7 | 85%
Measles |12-18 | 92-94%
Mumps | 4-7 | 75-86%
Pertussis (whooping cough) | 12-17 | 92-94%
Polio | 2-15 | 50-93
Rubella | 6-7 | 83-85%
Smallpox | 5-7 | 80-85%
Influenza | 1.4-4 | 30-75%


COVID is more similar to Influenza Measles.

So using the herd immunity threshold of 30% to 75% means that until somewhere between 30% and 75% of the population will build immunity it will continue to spread.

That also means, that before this is over 30% to 75% of the population will get this before it is "over"

Can someone explain to me why people are staying at home, not getting paid, and collapsing an economy based on me being 30% to 75% likely to catch this anyway? The only variable we seem to be moving is not the likelihood of me (or you or anyone) of catching this but when I am likely to catch this.

If I contract it, which is a 30 to 75% likelihood, how is me getting this in March vs June any different?

How much of YOUR money is it worth for me to get this disease in June or July instead of March?

Maybe someone can explain to me how this social distancing and stay at home orders are helping with regards to building herd immunity and protecting the population?
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
35,021 Posts
Discussion Starter · #2 ·
And lets look at this from the HHS (government)

https://www.vaccines.gov/basics/work/protection

That means even people who can’t get vaccinated will have some protection from getting sick. And if a person does get sick, there’s less chance of an outbreak because it’s harder for the disease to spread. Eventually, the disease becomes rare — and sometimes, it’s wiped out altogether.
 
  • Like
Reactions: MFC4 and g30nut

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,844 Posts
Can someone explain to me why people are staying at home, not getting paid, and collapsing an economy based on me being 30% to 75% likely to catch this anyway?
I can. This current situation is Utopia for Leftist governors and other bureaucrats. They get to exercise their megalomania, to control and subjugate the populace like Mussolini, to destroy evil capitalism, to inflict vengeful suffering on life's "unfair" winners, and to foster growing dependence on the national nipple. It is what every Leftist dreams of. It has nothing to do with public health. It has everything to do with making the Leftist's leg tingle with quasi-sexual splendor. Finally! What we have always yearned for! Leftist Utopia!
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
35,021 Posts
Discussion Starter · #4 ·
And lets look at this..

https://www.cnbc.com/2020/04/22/no-...ockholm-could-see-herd-immunity-in-weeks.html

Its neighbors closed borders, schools, bars and businesses as the coronavirus pandemic swept through Europe, but Sweden went against the grain by keeping public life as unrestricted as possible.

The strategy — aimed at allowing some exposure to the virus in order to build immunity among the general population while protecting high-risk groups like the elderly — has been controversial. Some health experts liken it to playing Russian roulette with public health.


But now, the country’s chief epidemiologist said the strategy appears to be working and that “herd immunity” could be reached in the capital Stockholm in a matter of weeks.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
43,593 Posts
It's referred to as "flattening the curve" and I can't fathom that anyone hasn't heard of it our understand the concept. Whether they agree with doing it or it's effectiveness. Having an overwhelming number of cases all at once sucked for Italy.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
35,021 Posts
Discussion Starter · #6 ·
I can. This current situation is utopia for Leftist governors and other bureaucrats. They get to exercise their megalomania, to destroy evil capitalism, to inflict vengeful suffering on life's "unfair" winners, and to foster growing dependence on the national nipple. It is what every Leftists dreams of. It has nothing to do with public health. It has everything to do with making the Leftist's leg tingle with quasi-sexual splendor.
But Sweden is a socialist country...and they didnt go nuts...

All us silly Americans will now only be able to buy IKEA furniture because they are the only ones who didnt shut down...
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
35,021 Posts
Discussion Starter · #8 ·
It's referred to as "flattening the curve" and I can't fathom that anyone hasn't heard of it our understand the concept. Whether they agree with doing it or it's effectiveness.
Flattening the curve is silly. The amount of people that will contract this is the "area under the curve"

It is that "flattening the curve" are buzzwords morons can't differentiate from area under the curve. Most people would know positive exponential growth from negative exponential growth if they saw it in black and white. But if is someone come on TV and talks about exponential growth, they get really scared.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
43,593 Posts
Flattening the curve is silly. The amount of people that will contract this is the "area under the curve"

It is that "flattening the curve" are buzzwords morons can't differentiate from area under the curve. Most people would know positive exponential growth from negative exponential growth if they saw it in black and white. But if is someone come on TV and talks about exponential growth, they get really scared.
I really don't care, as I said, what your opinion on flattening the curve is.

You asked how " this social distancing and stay at home orders are helping with regards to building herd immunity and protecting the population?"

I'm explaining to you, very clearly, that those measures were not put in place to build herd immunity. They were put in place to "flatten the curve"

Therefore, there is no reason to try and explain how they would help build herd immunity.

The extreme of your position is that we should all get a Covid Lolli Pop and get it over with as fast as possible. Then herd immunity would be helped as fast as possible.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
975 Posts
Can someone explain to me why people are staying at home, not getting paid, and collapsing an economy based on me being 30% to 75% likely to catch this anyway?
Yes. Here is the explanation for shutting down the country.

It was initially done to flatten the curve.

Now that the curve is flattened, the shutdown must continue in order to keep us safe.

And we must stay shut down and thus safe until a 100% effective vaccine is developed, even if it takes 18 months, and even if ChinaVirus dies down because listen to the experts -- it could come back!
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
43,593 Posts
"So let's keep this simple." Your question assumes that the listed efforts have anything to do with the goal of herd immunity. They don't.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
2,598 Posts
Flattening the curve is silly. The amount of people that will contract this is the "area under the curve"
How does that make it silly.... If the infected population at a given time (the "area" under the curve in this model is human beings) is more than the medical system to handle, (medical capacity represented as a horizontal line that intersects the curve) bad things happen.. this isn't hard to understand, unless you are trying hard not to understand it.

This thing is explosively infectious. There are examples where one person infected 45 at a choir practice, despite a "no touching" policy...
It's not hard to imagine the carnage if we allowed basketball games, concerts, crowded bars, maga rallies, etc to go on like nothing has changed...

You may want to contact the school where you got your epidemiology training and ask them for your money back.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
2,044 Posts
So lets keep this simple.

The government says
1. We need to shut everything down
2. We should/shall wear masks in public

We also know that there is no vaccine for COVID19

I think those three statements everyone agrees are true?

Now with no vaccine, herd immunity takes over to stop spread of a given disease.

Lets look at a site that put out what appears a rational explanation of herd immunity from BEFORE COVD19. I chose BEFORE so it is less influenced by politics and panic.

https://theconversation.com/what-is...o-be-vaccinated-to-protect-a-community-116355

They claim:
"Measles is one of the most infectious diseases to affect humans with an Ro of 12-18. To achieve herd immunity to measles in a population we need 92-95% of the population to be vaccinated."

They also claim the following for herd immunity:
Herd immunity threshold:
Disease | Reproduction number (Ro) | Vaccine coverage needed
Diphtheria | 6-7 | 85%
Measles |12-18 | 92-94%
Mumps | 4-7 | 75-86%
Pertussis (whooping cough) | 12-17 | 92-94%
Polio | 2-15 | 50-93
Rubella | 6-7 | 83-85%
Smallpox | 5-7 | 80-85%
Influenza | 1.4-4 | 30-75%


COVID is more similar to Influenza Measles.

So using the herd immunity threshold of 30% to 75% means that until somewhere between 30% and 75% of the population will build immunity it will continue to spread.

That also means, that before this is over 30% to 75% of the population will get this before it is "over"

Can someone explain to me why people are staying at home, not getting paid, and collapsing an economy based on me being 30% to 75% likely to catch this anyway? The only variable we seem to be moving is not the likelihood of me (or you or anyone) of catching this but when I am likely to catch this.

If I contract it, which is a 30 to 75% likelihood, how is me getting this in March vs June any different?

How much of YOUR money is it worth for me to get this disease in June or July instead of March?

Maybe someone can explain to me how this social distancing and stay at home orders are helping with regards to building herd immunity and protecting the population?
Thanks. Question: you said
"COVID is more similar to Influenza Measles." Does that mean COVID is more similar to Infuenza or more similar to Measles?
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
19,636 Posts
The Covid-19 virus is a rapidly mutating contagion. There are already 30 strains found in the U.S. There is a huge danger that it will mutate into a more deadly strain.
The big threat in all of this is exemplified by the 1918 Spanish influenza. They sheltered in place and they wore masks and then on Nov. 21, 1918 the people in San Francisco celebrated and held mask burning parties. And then, over the summer the remnants of the flu mutated into a much more 'virulent' strain. The following fall, the mutated virus swept through cities which had not properly socially distanced. San Francisco suffered greatly due to its early celebrations.

Then the city of 500,000 people let loose. Crowds filled Market Street all day long and into the next night. Stores and shops were closed.
It wasn't until the fall, after a more virulent form of Spanish flu had emerged, that Washington, D.C., got tough. In the meantime, the absence of a federal response "left cities and states to go off on their own and make decisions for themselves." Nichols said many chose the economy over public health -- and they put off social distancing, with fateful results.
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/20200420/four-lessons-from-the-1918-spanish-flu-pandemic#4

“After four weeks of muzzled misery, San Francisco unmasked at noon .... (Nov 21, 1918) .... and ventured to draw its breath,” The Chronicle reported the next day, describing the scene. “Despite the published prayers of the Health Department for conservation of gauze, the sidewalks and runnels were strewn with the relics of a torturous month.”
Except that wasn’t the end. The flu roared back in January, nearly doubling the death toll, and taking advantage of a city that had completely let down its guard. The Bay Area, up until then a national pandemic success story, became a cautionary tale.
It’s clear now that dropping the public’s guard was very premature. By early January, hospitals were full again with more than 25 influenza deaths per day, and on Jan. 11, 1919, the Board of Supervisors voted 15-1 to revive the citywide mask order.
https://www.sfchronicle.com/bayarea/article/San-Francisco-s-1918-Spanish-flu-debacle-A-15191518.php
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
547 Posts
So lets keep this simple.

The government says
1. We need to shut everything down
2. We should/shall wear masks in public

We also know that there is no vaccine for COVID19

I think those three statements everyone agrees are true?

Now with no vaccine, herd immunity takes over to stop spread of a given disease.

Lets look at a site that put out what appears a rational explanation of herd immunity from BEFORE COVD19. I chose BEFORE so it is less influenced by politics and panic.

https://theconversation.com/what-is...o-be-vaccinated-to-protect-a-community-116355

They claim:
"Measles is one of the most infectious diseases to affect humans with an Ro of 12-18. To achieve herd immunity to measles in a population we need 92-95% of the population to be vaccinated."

They also claim the following for herd immunity:
Herd immunity threshold:
Disease | Reproduction number (Ro) | Vaccine coverage needed
Diphtheria | 6-7 | 85%
Measles |12-18 | 92-94%
Mumps | 4-7 | 75-86%
Pertussis (whooping cough) | 12-17 | 92-94%
Polio | 2-15 | 50-93
Rubella | 6-7 | 83-85%
Smallpox | 5-7 | 80-85%
Influenza | 1.4-4 | 30-75%


COVID is more similar to Influenza Measles.

So using the herd immunity threshold of 30% to 75% means that until somewhere between 30% and 75% of the population will build immunity it will continue to spread.

That also means, that before this is over 30% to 75% of the population will get this before it is "over"

Can someone explain to me why people are staying at home, not getting paid, and collapsing an economy based on me being 30% to 75% likely to catch this anyway? The only variable we seem to be moving is not the likelihood of me (or you or anyone) of catching this but when I am likely to catch this.

If I contract it, which is a 30 to 75% likelihood, how is me getting this in March vs June any different?

How much of YOUR money is it worth for me to get this disease in June or July instead of March?

Maybe someone can explain to me how this social distancing and stay at home orders are helping with regards to building herd immunity and protecting the population?
https://www.wnd.com/2020/04/america-land-docile-sheeple/
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
8,921 Posts
The only justification for the "lockdowns" or "stay at home" orders is to stretch out the time over which people become infected, so as not to overtax the healthcare systems at any particular time and in any particular location.

That time has passed, we need to start opening up. Masks can reduce the risk of infected (unknowingly...because if you KNOW you are infected, stay home) people from infecting others. They should be worn when out in public when you are going to come in close contact with others. Work, shopping, etc. Because you don't want to be donning and doffing the thing multiple times, and touching your face, you ought to just wear it for the whole trip the store, or from the time you get to work to the time you leave work. Wearing them while walking down the street, or in the park or on the beach, or in your own yard cooking on your grill makes no sense...they aren't doing anyone any good.

But wearing them in close proximity to others will keep the transmission rate from jumping up again, and keep the number of new cases down to a manageable level. In theory...we really don't know...at least they will spread less rapidly than without masks.

The problem with that is, if you slow the rate of infection, which the masks will do, it takes longer to build up herd immunity, which will be critical (IF antibodies provide immunity, which is probably, but we don't yet know) until (if) a vaccine is developed.

So the balancing act is between opening up and generating herd immunity on the one hand and not increasing infections so much that there is a run on the hospitals on the other hand. Most everyone is going to get this, most will be fine. And some will die. A very small percentage of the US population will die, but since we have something like 330,000,000, even "a very small percentage" is still a damned big number. Basically, the goal is to keep the illnesses requiring hospitalization and the deaths as orderly and as manageable as possible.

If your state or local government is doing anything that isn't consistent these goals, and nothing more, then watch your back. They have other plans for you.
 

·
Registered
Joined
·
799 Posts
Can anyone explain this disparity :
Tokyo with a population of 37 million has reported 117 Corvid deaths.
NYC with a 8 million population reports Corvid deaths over 11,000.
Can it be that numbers don't lie ... but liars number ? Something is very wrong.
 

·
Banned
Joined
·
35,021 Posts
Discussion Starter · #20 ·
. Most everyone is going to get this, most will be fine. And some will die. A very small percentage of the US population will die, but since we have something like 330,000,000, even "a very small percentage" is still a damned big number. Basically, the goal is to keep the illnesses requiring hospitalization and the deaths as orderly and as manageable as possible.
And how much money has been thrown around for ventilators?

How often were we told that if we only had a million (or whatever number and governor on any given day wanted) ventilators people would be saved? We didnt want to overburden the health system and number of available ventilators by "flattening the curve".

But lets look at real data coming in:
https://www.webmd.com/lung/news/202...ed-on-ventilators-died-new-york-study-shows#1

Among the 2,634 patients for whom outcomes were known, the overall death rate was 21%, but it rose to 88% for those who received mechanical ventilation, the Northwell Health COVID-19 Research Consortium reported.
 
1 - 20 of 100 Posts
Top