"Hanlon's Razor" may explain Trump and his flock.

Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by fowl intent, Aug 12, 2015.

  1. fowl intent

    fowl intent Banned

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    The interweb can be a wonderful thing. I stumbled upon this axiom this morning while researching the post about the Dunning-Kruger Effect. Much like Occam's Razor (which essentially states that when multiple hypotheses predict an event or outcome equally well, the one with the fewest assumptions will often be the correct hypothesis) Hanlon's Razor can be useful in explaining or interpreting human behavior. In a nutshell, Hanlon's Razor states :

    Never attribute to malice that which is adequately explained by stupidity.

    I think this, in conjunction with Occam's razor and the Dunning-Kruger Effect adequately describes both Trump's perception of his own skill set, and his loyal follower's blind acceptance of him as a valid candidate for POTUS.
     
  2. callihan_44

    callihan_44 INFIDEL

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    the same thing can be said for any given democrat, Hillary has YEARS of scandals and a dead ambassador on her hands yet she is still in the conversation
     

  3. FLIPPER 348

    FLIPPER 348 Bigfoot enthusiast enthusiast

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    That The Donald has even more of a lead in all the polls since the 'debate' still seems to confuse some of y'all.....
     
  4. fowl intent

    fowl intent Banned

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    Who said anything about Hillary Clinton?
     
  5. callihan_44

    callihan_44 INFIDEL

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    Dunning-Kruger Effect adequately describes both Trump's perception of his own skill set, and his loyal follower's blind acceptance of him as a valid candidate for POTUS"

    throw Hillary and her followers in that sentence to
     
  6. pspez

    pspez

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    She is a fraud and is still worshipped as legitimate.
     
  7. fowl intent

    fowl intent Banned

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    Sure, throw them into the mix too.
     
  8. fowl intent

    fowl intent Banned

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    As a whole, the US electorate is a pretty dumbed down group of sound bite listeners.
     
  9. aircarver

    aircarver Descent Terminated Silver Member

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    ... As evidenced by their electing Maobama twice .... :frown:
     
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  10. DOC44

    DOC44

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    Trump's "flock"...... sheep are said to group in flocks..... probably it would be more accurate to says Trump's pack.... wolves are said to group in packs.

    Doc44
     
  11. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    Hanlon's Razor neatly explains your post OP.

    I'm not a "Trump Supporter" but I do like him. His popularity is easily understood by anyone with half a brain.

    He is the antithesis of political correctness. He says what he wants and doesn't give a F about anybody who might be offended. In a society being suffocated under political correctness, its a breath of fresh air.

    The funny part is, his opponents and detractors only know one way to attack him. Which is through the same political correctness intimidation tactics that have been so successfully used to destroy others in the past. How many "scandals" have there been over things he has said. Unfortunately for the ******* crazies and the establishment republicans, these sorts of attacks are utterly useless in attacking Trump because defying them is what he's built his brand on. They just can't seem to understand that.

    If the establishment republicans really wanted to bring down Trump, instead of stupid questions about what he said on twitter, they should have asked him substantial questions about his policy positions. Maybe he had good answers, maybe he wouldn't. Ultimately, I feel sooner or later he's going to have to be specific about what he wants to do as president, and that may be his undoing. I personally think that is what will prevent him from being the nominee. . . could be wrong, but it's what I think at the moment.

    But what is awesome about Trump, is that he might be finally the thing that ends the reign of terror of political correctness that has completely taken over our political system in the last six years or so. It was always a thing. . . but it's just gotten completely out of hand. Once people start realizing that just because you hold beliefs that somebody gets on twitter and calls "offensive" doesn't mean very many other people feel that way or that you owe them an apology.

    Trump may not be the next presidential nominee, but maybe he'll be the catalyst for people to start caring about stuff that actually matters again.
     
  12. Burebista

    Burebista "Democrats are garbage people"

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    Two- time Obama voter Flipper lies again:

    First Two Post-Debate Scientific Polls Are Out, Both Show Trump Losing Ground

    WHO IS YOUR FIRST CHOICE FOR A 2016 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE? (PRE-DEBATE)
    1. Donald Trump – 37.6%
    2. Ted Cruz – 23.4%
    3. Ben Carson – 15.4%
    4. Scott Walker – 11.2%

    WHO IS YOUR FIRST CHOICE FOR A 2016 REPUBLICAN PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATE? (POST-DEBATE)
    1. Ted Cruz – 29.6%
    2. Donald Trump – 23.6
    3. Ben Carson – 12.6%
    4. Carly Fiorina – 8.3%

    For Donald Trump this represents a loss of 37.1%. So to the question of whether or not Fox News hurt Trump, the answer is clear. The debate appears to have been devastating for Trump, convincing more than a third of his previous supporters to jump ship.
     
  13. JFrame

    JFrame

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    One interesting observation I heard someone make about Trump is that he has never seen anyone operate on a 100% offensive like the Donald, and so far get away with it. Whether it's the illegal immigrant statements, the John McCain brouhaha, or Megyn, he doesn't back down but just keeps operating in attack mode. I guess the question is how long this can be sustained.

    One thing that occurs to me is that each of those "offended" parties represents something that a huge swath of Americans mistrust/dislike -- the illegals (no explanation necessary), McCain with RINOs in general, and Megyn representing the media (even if it is Fox News). In the case of the illegals, a series of deplorable murders has really played into Trump's narrative in a timely manner. Whether through guile or dumb luck, Trump has managed to steer the sentiments of a significant chunk of America.

    .
     
  14. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    I don't know what polls those are, but they don't resemble any other polls I've seen. Focusing specifically on the "pre-debate" poll. . .

    - Trump never had 37.6% support.
    - Where is Jeb Bush? He was in second place on every poll I saw.
    - Ted Cruz was never that night in the polls, nor was Ben Carson.

    I haven't seen much of polls post-debate, but your pre-debate numbers are just completely wrong.
     
  15. DWARREN123

    DWARREN123 Grumpy Old Guy

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    Trumps is saying things that many people think. Don't like him, well that's tough!
     
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