Few cases of coronavirus in Sweden "Our strategy worked"

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by DonGlock26, Sep 8, 2020.

  1. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26

    Messages:
    74,386
    Likes Received:
    71,800
    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2001
    "Few cases of coronavirus in Sweden "Our strategy worked"

    Today the Scandinavian country has one of the lowest rates of infections even though it has never adopted a rigid lockdown. But the dead were more than 5 thousand

    But what if in the end it turns out that Sweden's strategy to deal with the coronavirus was not so far-fetched and, indeed, is bearing fruit? Stockholm, unlike its Scandinavian neighbors, did not want to launch lockdown measures, relying more on the responsibility of individuals than on prohibitions. And to date it has paid a very high price with a rate of infections and mortality far higher than that of Norway and Denmark having had 84,985 positives and 5,835 deaths.


    The turning point
    Today, however, the situation looks different as many states face a resumption of the pandemic, in Stockholm the data are firmly descending . "Sweden has gone from being the country with the most infections in Europe to the safest one - said Dr. Anders Tegnell, the epidemiologist most considered by the government -. Our policy may have been slow to bring results but in the end they arrived and are more stable ».


    The data
    According to the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control last week Sweden had 12 cases per million population while Denmark had 18 and Norway 14. Unlike mid-April when there were more than 100 deaths per day. , today there are no more than two or three deaths. On the contrary, on Thursday Copenhagen reached the record of the last 4 months with 179 infected in 24 hours.

    https://www.corriere.it/esteri/20_s...-94cc-1f80cc642b17.shtml?cmpid=tbd_54f508c2ux "
     
    tm255, mike from st pe and Rokitt like this.
  2. thewitt

    thewitt

    Messages:
    15,255
    Likes Received:
    45,080
    Joined:
    Feb 8, 2017
    Same death per million rate as the US. I would not say that was particularly good.
     
    czsmithGT and DrVlad like this.

  3. racerford

    racerford

    Messages:
    8,975
    Likes Received:
    6,694
    Joined:
    Apr 22, 2003
    Location:
    DFW area
    In my town of around 13,000 there have been two deaths attributed to CoVid-19. One in their 80's and the other in their 90's.

    Terrifying, absolutely terrifying disease.

    Based on CDC excess deaths by cause, it appears the "cure" has been worse than the disease.
     
    Capttjk, M&P15T, Rokitt and 1 other person like this.
  4. DonGlock26

    DonGlock26

    Messages:
    74,386
    Likes Received:
    71,800
    Joined:
    Jan 18, 2001
    All without the economic damage of a shutdown. I call that outstanding.
     
  5. Kevinr20

    Kevinr20

    Messages:
    8,668
    Likes Received:
    11,067
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2005
    Location:
    America
    It's not over yet.
     
  6. M&P15T

    M&P15T Well I'll Be Dipped!!!

    Messages:
    28,467
    Likes Received:
    15,177
    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Location:
    Arlington, VA.
    You're failing to grasp that they're done with COVID.

    While we here in the US keep ****ing around with it. Wearing masks and acting like a bunch of ****tard Karens.

    They were smart, we're being stupid. They're done with it, and we're dragging it out forever. We keep ****ing around with it, and we'll drag it into the winter months when more people than necessary will get seriously sick and die from it.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2020
    Aljames, nursetim and redneck ron like this.
  7. Taz

    Taz

    Messages:
    5,091
    Likes Received:
    9,700
    Joined:
    Feb 22, 2000
    Location:
    Round Rock, TX, USA
    Better death rate than its neighbors. Same death rate as USA without trillions in debt and bankrupt businesses. The deaths are never good, but it seems the deaths happen irrelevant of the approach (slow vs fast) so the long term question is going to be whether the debt and bankruptcies will cause more damage to the other nations.

    The initial plan to flatten the curve is probably the only truth that was told. That idea was to control the rate of spread to keep hospitals from getting over run and have to ration care too much. Note that nowhere was there discussion of limiting spread as a primary goal. That crap came later when folks realized politics could be played.

    Essentially it’s rio the band aid off or slowly peel it off. End result is the same. Band aid if off and the same number of hairs stuck to it.

    I don’t think anyone is done with ChicomFluV19. It’s been under a year and there are at least 4 different strains. Dollars to donuts this is just like the cold/flu. It goes around the world and we have a yearly shot to target current mutations to minimize its effects.
     
    nursetim likes this.
  8. M&P15T

    M&P15T Well I'll Be Dipped!!!

    Messages:
    28,467
    Likes Received:
    15,177
    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Location:
    Arlington, VA.
    Sweden is. Italy is. NY is. Lots of places are done with COVID. Hell, NoVa is, not that you'd know it by walking the streets and looking at what the plebes are doing.

    I don't think it's going to stick around. MERS and SARS didn't, they just disappeared, probably through mutation. And when it leaves, which I think is about a month away, it's going to be like shutting off a light. Leave people wondering WTH happened. Leave the COVID Karens desperately searching for the next thing to be fearful of.

    When a virus changes, it usually changes to something benign.
     
    DonGlock26 likes this.
  9. DrVlad

    DrVlad Millennium Member

    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    1,926
    Joined:
    Aug 4, 1999
    Location:
    LA , USA
    Haven't looked at the comparative numbers in a while, but a few mos ago when the population density of Sweden was considered, they did far worse than states in the US. with comparative population density.
     
  10. paynter2

    paynter2 It ain't over Millennium Member

    Messages:
    7,980
    Likes Received:
    3,676
    Joined:
    Apr 25, 1999
    Location:
    upper mid-west
    One thing you have to remember when comparing the USA to other countries - with just about anything... We are a very obese population. When I see video of my local guard unit they all look to be 50+ lbs over weight. Kids today think nothing of it. I see many high school girls 40 lbs heavier than girls in my day. Boys the same. just 'smart phone' bodies I guess. It's their life - do what you want to do. But our obese population is prime for CV19.

    We also have a 'hand out' segment of our population. It's a huge segment. And I don't mean hand something out to someone. I mean standing around with THEIR hand out. They live in the projects and slums of Dim run cities and contribute nothing to our existence as a country. On the other hand, they are an anchor around the neck of the US and are growing at an expanding rate. Black? Yes - but not only black. Whites, hispanic, Native - they're all included in the 'hand out' population.

    I doubt Swedes are as obese as we are and I also doubt they have such a 'hand out' population.
     
    M&P15T likes this.
  11. M&P15T

    M&P15T Well I'll Be Dipped!!!

    Messages:
    28,467
    Likes Received:
    15,177
    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Location:
    Arlington, VA.
    Not at all. You can crunch the numbers yourself. Their deaths/population are only slightly higher than ours. And are probably right in line with what we'll end up at.

    And their population density is higher than ours.
     
    Last edited: Sep 9, 2020
    DrVlad likes this.
  12. DrVlad

    DrVlad Millennium Member

    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    1,926
    Joined:
    Aug 4, 1999
    Location:
    LA , USA

    Sweden population density is 64/ sq mi. US population density is 93/sq mi

    So I found present data. Present John Hopkins data https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/data/mortality. All calculations based on this data.

    Sweden overall mortality rate was
    6.8 %, and per capita death rate was 57/100k. US mortality rate was much less on a percentage base at 3% of all cases , yet on par at 58/100K population death rate.

    The best comparison would be to choose a areas in the US with equivalent population density to compare to Sweden. The 4 closest wold be MN, VT, MS, and AZ all with pop density ~ 65-68/sq mi. All four had mortality rates ~ 3% (2.5-3.5) and death rates /100K ranging from a low 9.3/ 100K in VT, to a high of 72.8/100K in AZ, with a mean of 50.7/100K and median of 41.1/100K .

    So in areas in the US that have comparative pop density to Sweden, the death rate /100K is significantly better in the us and the case mortality rate is in fact markedly better, being approximately half of Sweden's.
     
    tacit mesa likes this.
  13. Kevinr20

    Kevinr20

    Messages:
    8,668
    Likes Received:
    11,067
    Joined:
    Dec 13, 2005
    Location:
    America
    Except the US is still increasing cases while sweden is done..at least for now. Lets compare the numbers once both countries are through this virus.
     
  14. DrVlad

    DrVlad Millennium Member

    Messages:
    967
    Likes Received:
    1,926
    Joined:
    Aug 4, 1999
    Location:
    LA , USA
    Definitely worth considering.......but that statement in and of itself implies the data collection is not complete and by default then nullifies the theory stated as the premise of this post. Basically present statistics simply don't support that Sweden actually fared better than the US did when corrected for population density.

    Although there aren't any exact calculations to predict final outcome in the US, I have been involved in quite enough rigorous scientific statistical trials to make a few educated speculations. First, it is all but impossible for the mortality rate in the US to ever grow to more than double the present 3% rate it necessitate to surpass the case mortality rate in Sweden of 6.8% The sample size is to far large now so it's very unlikely to vary much more than a few tenths of a percent unless something catastrophic occurs relative to case mortality rates in the US. Also considering present mortality rates in the US are actually improving, this tenths of a percent change are likely to trend towards lower mortality.

    Secondly, and for many of the same reasons statistically speaking, it is very, very improbable that the population density corrected mortality /100K in the US will be able to close such a large gap and surpass that of Sweden. Again, for the same reasons, the rate /100K will only waver by a few points, and likely not at all in population density matched areas, as those specific regions in the US all are actually declining in case rates and overall mortality.

    Bottom line is the statistics in no way presently support that Sweden fared better than the US when the statistical analysis are properly adjusted for population density, which overall is always very significant confounding factor during infectious pandemics. Also based on present sample size momentum factors and declining mortality, educated speculation would also lead one to believe the statistics will never demonstrate that position.
     
  15. M&P15T

    M&P15T Well I'll Be Dipped!!!

    Messages:
    28,467
    Likes Received:
    15,177
    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Location:
    Arlington, VA.
    Sweden's population is much more tightly packed into suburban and urban areas than the US. Simply taking a given population and square miles of land and dividing doesn't tell the story. So all of your calculations are useless, as pertaining to the discussion of population densities and COVID.

    Deaths as a percentage of the population. That's what we're talking about. Theirs is only slightly higher than the current US number. And THEY'RE DONE WITH COVID.
     
    Aljames likes this.
  16. M&P15T

    M&P15T Well I'll Be Dipped!!!

    Messages:
    28,467
    Likes Received:
    15,177
    Joined:
    Apr 7, 2011
    Location:
    Arlington, VA.
    Except.......ya know.....that Sweden is DONE with COVID.

    The US will have fared worse than Sweden, when we're done with it ourselves. Their deaths/population will be lower. Their population is healthier than ours, and that is by far the over-riding factor.

    Considering that their population density in suburban and urban areas is significantly higher than ours, and that they live in a more northern climate than we do, they have done a much, much better job than we have by simply doing.........nothing.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2020
  17. MaxxAction

    MaxxAction

    Messages:
    7,395
    Likes Received:
    11,413
    Joined:
    Feb 26, 2005
    Location:
    TN
    Imagine what it would look like had 5 states not imported the virus into their nursing home populations. That is what? 38% of all deaths from Covid? Approximately 70k less deaths than what we have would change the stat pretty significantly.
     
    M&P15T likes this.