Dr Fauci now backtracks on deadliness of Wuhan Flu

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by rock_castle, Mar 28, 2020.

  1. Wayward Son

    Wayward Son

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  2. rock_castle

    rock_castle Stay home if you're afraid of the flu

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  3. OttoLoader

    OttoLoader

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    One step foward 100k back.
     
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  4. pblanc

    pblanc

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    To be fair to Dr Fauci, I don't think his message has changed much. And he is appropriately adjusting recommendations based on new information as it comes in. What I think is happening is that people are clutching at his statements, the implications of which they don't well understand, and twisting them to support their particular brand of confirmation bias.

    What prompted this thread was an editorial in the New England Journal of Medicine that was co-authored by Fauci and printed 3 days ago. The editorial states:

    "If one assumes that the number of asymptomatic or minimally symptomatic cases is several times as high as the number of reported cases, the case fatality rate may be considerably less than 1%. This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza (similar to those in 1957 and 1968) rather than a disease similar to SARS or MERS, which have had case fatality rates of 9 to 10% and 36%, respectively."

    I personally think that it was perhaps a bit over-optimistic to suggest that the case fatality rate might fall as low as 0.1% and I would not have stated that "the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza" but I think it was clear that this statement rested on some very big "maybes". No projections were made as to eventual per capita infection or death rates in that editorial. The editorial also points out that until the basic reproduction number for the virus, currently estimated to be 2.2, falls below 1.0, the virus will continue to spread.

    It doesn't take a genius to know that if the virus does continue to spread unchecked it will eventually infect a great many people, and even with the very rosy estimate of a 0.1% case fatality rate, it will eventually kill a lot of people unless effective treatments emerge.

    I agree with Dr Fauci's statement earlier today that we will have millions of confirmed cases in the US eventually. If half of the US population eventually acquire the virus before a vaccine, collective adaptive immunity, or new treatments stop it, a case fatality rate even as low as 0.1% would kill between 100,000 to 200,000 people, so what he said today is really not out of line with what was stated in the NEJM editorial.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  5. kiole

    kiole

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    FYI it’s called modeling, and it predicts a range of scenarios best to worse case scenario. Worse case scenario is probably 250,000,000 sick 5,000,000 dead. Best case scenario was probably where we are now. The outcome will be somewhere in between. Considering this is a novel virus without a known scientifically proven treatment or vaccine it’s hard to model. We are lucky this one is relatively mild.

    It could end in 2 weeks or could wipe out our entire economy and millions of people. I’d rather be safe then sorry. Even if we ignore it and go back to work the economy will not be OK if millions die which is much more likely if people ignore it.
     
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  6. OttoLoader

    OttoLoader

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    Fuaci should stick to medicine.
    Stop taking questions that would venture into politics.

    He hedges his estimates. That trait is common with researchers.

    He should emphasize the message toward what actions the individual should do.

    Regarding his speculation he should say something along the line
    Policily will be establish with the most current reliable medical public health information available.
    The present actions are made with serious consideration within the multi discipline team.

    What I am doing is tune out the political chatter. I ignore anything Fauci says or reportedly says in the gotcha popular media.

    Update.
    Fauci with CNN asserted they changed Trump from issuing a quarntine to making a strong travel advisory. Had to real in Orange Man

    Later compliments Pelosi. We need more testing.
    Fauci fail ( on purpose)

    Compare to Dr Birx on NBC
    Gave objective answers. Will make recommendations to the president and vp before the media.

    Fauci is looking more and more to be a political operative.
     
    Last edited: Mar 29, 2020
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  7. B C

    B C

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  8. pblanc

    pblanc

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  9. Colt M-4

    Colt M-4 AK-74 Silver Member

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    ALL life is important and if you don't believe that wait till they come around to you..No matter how rich or poor we all end up in the same ditch.It is that we all like to just put it off as long as possible. DfCwhrqVAAAddQx.jpg
     
  10. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

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  11. Left-Right

    Left-Right

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    Sounds like it acts on lysosomes, preventing the pH from lowering?
     
  12. GeoJelly

    GeoJelly

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    Up front, I am not a physician. But, the comment above is interesting. My understanding of how HQ works is by, in part, serving as a zinc ionophore. That is, it helps/facilitates the entry of zinc ions into the cell cytoplasm. Zinc is normally not able to get thru the cell membrane (at least thru lung cell membranes, anyway). Once zinc enters the cell cytoplasm, it interferes with the RNA replication process; that is, zinc prevents the virus from successfully replicating itself , and in turn, infecting other cells with the newly replicated virions. But, back to the actual comment above, if the CV-19 virus was unable to penetrate or be swallowed by lung cells then we would not have a pandemic at hand. I hope that is the case and look forward to more information and updates as this develops.
     
  13. IamtheNRA

    IamtheNRA

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  14. jame

    jame I don't even know....what I'm doing here....

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  15. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

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    I agree it doesn't make sense, but the result of using our numbers for cases that are "completed" by either death or recovery is even farther from the truth - that would give us a death rate around 40%, while the non-hysterical press is reporting professionals saying the real rate will turn out to be way closer to the flu.

    COVID-19 Case Fatality Rate “May Be Considerably Less Than 1%” – Dr. Anthony Fauci

    "John P. A. Ioannidis, a professor of medicine and epidemiology at Stanford, recently published an article entitled “A fiasco in the making? As the coronavirus pandemic takes hold, we are making decisions without reliable data.“ In the article, he also argues that there is simply not enough data to make claims about reported case fatality rate. . . . He states that the real death rate of this virus could be five or more times lower, at 0.025 percent to 0.625 percent.
    . . .
    "According to an article recently published in the New England Journal of Medicine by Dr. Anthony S. Fauci, Dr. H. Clifford Lane, and Dr. Robert R. Redfield, the case fatality rate may be less than one percent, and the clinical consequences of Covid-19 may be more similar to that of a severe seasonal influenza."
     
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  16. 686Owner

    686Owner NRA Life Member

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    Yes, and if it continued to grow at the same rate it would surpass the number of flu deaths in about 2 weeks. And 90% of those deaths would be in the next two weeks. And the hospitalization rate is something like 20x higher which is a real problem.
     
  17. Ramjet38

    Ramjet38 Mentally Frozen

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    That's always been my contention too.
     
  18. 686Owner

    686Owner NRA Life Member

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    It's tough but if you do more than just read the headline you'll often find out someone was trying to shape his statement to fit their own conclusion.
     
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  19. Ramjet38

    Ramjet38 Mentally Frozen

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    Of course they are, and he wants approval in what he says.

    When you let a pro basketball player do an interview with you that shows a lot.
     
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  20. OttoLoader

    OttoLoader

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    Fauci does a poor job of public speaking. His public presence really brings in doubt and uncertainty.
    Contrast with Dr Birx. Who is clear concise and communicated status based upon ever changing as expected data.
    Dr Birx communicates a feed back control type of system. Learn new data revise course of action.
    Fauci comes across as a indecisive hedge your statement demoralizing guy. Because he mostly has a qualifier or other caveat, no indication of what is going on is provided.

    I basically tune his public statements out, because they do not add concrete value.

    Because they are not contributing to an accurate understanding of the state of the response.
    I am not guessing his motivations. I am making a critique from what I see from him to make some kind of conclusion.
    Really the only occasion that I watch him is limited now to any appearance at the coronavirus team news brief .