Dr Fauci now backtracks on deadliness of Wuhan Flu

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by rock_castle, Mar 28, 2020.

  1. rock_castle

    rock_castle Stay home if you're afraid of the flu

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    Intolerant and Hannie Caulder like this.
  2. eagle359

    eagle359 Glock Fanboi

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    The events in NYC may be evidence to the contrary.
     
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  3. Mr981

    Mr981

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    There has been a back and forth among pandemic specialists regarding how deadly this disease will be since day one. The opinion supporting young people not being affected much by it diminishes each day, based on reports.
    We are still only 2 months in on this virus--since the Wuhan lockdown--and it doesn't sound like we know enough about it to know how and why it is sometimes deadly and other times not to the population in general.
     
  4. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

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    "reported"

    Like I've been saying, from what we are seeing reported and a little common sense, the problem is less about this virus being super-deadly than it is about the symptoms being so mild for most people that most cases are never tested or reported as coronavirus.
     
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  5. rock_castle

    rock_castle Stay home if you're afraid of the flu

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    It's funny how the left considered the good doctor to be the expert when he was sounding the alarm for panic.....and now dismisses his opinions when he expresses a more reasonable tone.
     
  6. Joshhtn

    Joshhtn The eBay Guy Gold Member

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    The death rate is only one factor. The amount of people that need hospitalization or ventilation is another...
     
  7. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

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    How so?

    Health officials limiting coronavirus testing to high-risk patients

    When the only people being tested are "high risk," guess what? Yep, a large number of them are going to die and your death rate is going to be the number of people who die divided by the number of people likely to die. If that number is somewhere between 1% and 3%, I'm not too worried.

    Yes, we can cherry-pick examples of younger, healthy people dying from this. And we can do the same for the flu and many other illnesses. Before this kicked up, I was reading about the shocking cases of healthy 20-somethings dying from the flu, now I'm reading the same about coronavirus.
     
  8. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

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    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2763667

    Case-Fatality Rate and Characteristics of Patients Dying in Relation to COVID-19 in Italy

    SUMMARIZED:

    The overall fatality rate of persons with confirmed COVID-19 in the Italian population, based on data up to March 17, was 7.2% (1625 deaths/22 512 cases).3 This rate is higher than that observed in other countries2 and may be related to 3 factors.

    1. The demographic characteristics of the Italian population differ from other countries. In 2019, approximately 23% of the Italian population was aged 65 years or older.

    2. A second possible explanation for the high Italian case-fatality rate may be how COVID-19–related deaths are identified in Italy. Case-fatality statistics in Italy are based on defining COVID-19–related deaths as those occurring in patients who test positive for SARS-CoV-2 via RT-PCR, independently from preexisting diseases that may have caused death.

    3. A third possible explanation for variation in country-specific case-fatality rates are the differing strategies used for SARS-CoV-2 RT-PCR testing. After an initial, extensive testing strategy of both symptomatic and asymptomatic contacts of infected patients in a very early phase of the epidemic, on February 25, the Italian Ministry of Health issued more stringent testing policies. This recommendation prioritized testing for patients with more severe clinical symptoms who were suspected of having COVID-19 and required hospitalization.
     
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  9. jeanderson

    jeanderson Making America great again! Platinum Member

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    ^^^ THIS!

    The death rate is simple math: number deaths divided by number of cases. If you don't know the denominator in that equation, you don't know the death rate. Garbage in, garbage out.
     
  10. Pluto57

    Pluto57

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    Except that's not how it's calculated. At least not while there are still unresolved cases, i.e., neither recovered nor dead. Not arguing about whether or not the mortality rate is overrated or not, just the methodology for calculating it.
     
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  11. Z71bill

    Z71bill

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    The mortality rate is one key factor -

    But don't they also need to consider how contagious both are to determine total risk?

    I thought the covid-19 was more contagious.

    Or did they change that too now?
     
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  12. Pluto57

    Pluto57

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    There are other factors as well that help to justify the precautions being taken. People who want to prove we are overreacting want to focus solely on the mortality rate.
     
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  13. MarkCO

    MarkCO Super Moderator Staff Member Moderator CLM Millennium Member

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    Listen to Dr. Birx. She is the adult in the room.
     
  14. PicardMD

    PicardMD Make It So!!

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    Mortality rate is a very loaded phrase in epidemiology, and often does not tell the whole story by itself.

    Mortality rate in a specific population is driven by the number of people who die from a specific disease over the number of people diagnosed with the disease. Obviously, the populations ability and capacity (a word I will use often here) to diagnose the disease will greatly impact the mortality rate of that specific population. The other piece of the equation is the medical industry in that specific population's ability and capacity to rescue those who need care.

    Speaking as a frontline physician in the thick of this pandemic, this is what I can tell you -

    1) When the dust settles, we will most likely find out that vast majority of people infected with COVID 19 have very little symptoms. However....

    2) Unlikely the flu, those who need medical care due to COVID 19 are much sicker, and much more heterogeneous. While it is true that those who are older and with existing comorbidities are the ones worse off, we are seeing a large number of younger and healthier people getting sick as **** compared with the flu. The reasons for these are multi-faceted.

    3) We are also seeing that a larger percentage of people with COVID 19 infection need hospital level type of medical care compared with the flu, and they are hospitalized for much longer time than the flu. This is why flattening the curve is so important because we need to spread out the per-day rate of hospitalization. Otherwise, we will run out of hospital beds.

    4) We are also seeing that those who need to be hospitalized, a much large percentage of them need ICU-level care compared with the flu. And they need ICU care much longer than flu patients. This is why we are running out of ventilators. Unlike the flu - the worldwide experience so far is, 86% of COVID patients needing intubation/ventilator die after a prolonged ICU course. In Seattle, that number is around 70% so far.

    Many hot spot areas are now faced with ethical decisions on who gets ventilator and who doesn't... If you have an 70 year old decorated Purple Heart veteran with diabetes, a 40 yo old alcoholic, and a 26 year old spring breaker who went to a "COVID party" all need a ventilator and you only have one available, who gets it?

    5) We are also beginning to find out that many of the sick COVID patients also have renal failure - we don't see that with flu. Many of them need temporary dialysis (or they die). This means, we may also run out of dialysis machines.

    So yes, while the overall worldwide (or even the US) mortality may be low when we start to mass test the population. However, that doesn't tell you the whole story. This is a new virus that we don't have herd immunity for, and we don't quite fully understand it's molecular biology and genetic factors of who may get really sick. What we do know is, a ****-ton of people are getting very sick and needing hospital resources... and in hot spots around the country, we are running out of capacity to care for these people.
     
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  15. thewitt

    thewitt

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    See Italy....
     
  16. jack76590

    jack76590

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    If the death rate is lower percentage of those infected, because a lot of people are getting infected by not reported, there is a big potential upside. Specifically a lot more people are acquiring immunity than previous thought.
     
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  17. PicardMD

    PicardMD Make It So!!

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    Yes, our experience so far is COVID is more contagious than the flu in general due to two major factors - COVID virus survives longer outside of human body, and many of the infected are asymptomatic and infectious to others compared to the flu.

    While the vast majority of those who are infected have very mild symptoms, a much larger percentage of those who are sick enough to need care need hospital-level care compared to the flu. This is why we need to flatten the curve - meaning slow down the rate and spread of infection in the population so that they don't all need hospitalization all at once. Otherwise, we will run out of hospital beds, and worsen the outcome - meaning, many of the survivable cases will die because they can't get hospital level care.
     
    Last edited: Mar 28, 2020
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  18. R*E

    R*E

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    It’s more contagious.

    Correct. The article states C-19 is more contagious.
     
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  19. PicardMD

    PicardMD Make It So!!

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    Problem is, we don't know if infection itself confers immunity. The molecular immunology of why or why not is very complicated. There are anecdotal reports of possible re-infections with COVID 19.
     
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  20. ChuteTheMall

    ChuteTheMall Wallbuilder and Weapon Bearer

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    Easiest way to reduce the number of new reported cases would be to eliminate testing. :headscratch: