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The new global warming....

"Coronavirus could take up to 5 years to get under control, WHO chief scientist warns

It will likely take four or five years for the coronavirus to be truly under control, according to the World Health Organization’s chief scientist. The WHO’s Soumya Swaminathan offered her dire forecast Wednesday, warning of the many variables at play that will determine how long the virus will scourge the earth.

“Let’s say we have a vaccine and we’re able to cover the world’s entire population, which may take, I don’t know, three years, four years,” she said during a Financial Times panel discussion. “So I would say in a four- to five-year timeframe we could be looking at controlling this.”

Swaminathan added that a vaccine “seems for now the best way out,” but couched her assessment adding there is “no crystal ball” and the pandemic could even “potentially get worse.”
And if the virus mutates, it could render an established vaccine ineffective, she said.




https://nypost.com/2020/05/13/coronavirus-could-take-4-or-5-years-to-get-under-control-who/
Another panelist cast doubt as to whether COVID-19 would ever actually be eradicated. "
 

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A swamp dude
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Her gloomy view of the future with COVID-19 is meaningless. WHO has lost its credibility.

Even I could have made the same wishy washy statements as the WHO expert: 'It could do this or that or something else over the next 3 or 4 or 5 years'. Thanks for enlightening us lady.
 
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The five-year time-frame for a viable and widely distributed vaccine is not unreasonable. Analyses from independent sources familiar with vaccine development and production will concur.

Control? Well, maybe like the flu is controlled. Nobody dies from that anymore, do they?

Doesn't mean we shouldn't get back to work, with some practical adjustments. There are viruses and other illnesses "out of control" and "under control" across the world. And people drop dead from them all the time.

Welcome to reality.
 

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Nobody knows if, how, or when the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will end and that includes people who have studied virology and epidemiology their entire lives. A great deal will depend on 1. Whether viral infection will confer immunity and, if so, how long that will last. 2. If an effective vaccine becomes widely available and when that might happen.

Both of the above are still complete unknowns. Also unknown is the virus' basic reproduction number and how much seasonal variation there will be in its transmissibility, if any.

The fact that the virus has a high degree of infectiousness near the start or even before what are mild symptoms, or even no symptoms, develop makes it virtually impossible to eradicate with case-based interventions such as testing, isolation, and contact tracing, at least at this time. Which means it will be almost impossible to contain in the way that the SARS-CoV-1 virus or MERS betacoronaviruses were contained. Which means that the virus will most likely eventually become endemic in the global population. But what it does before that happens remains unknown.

There are two other betacoronaviruses that epidemiologists know a fair amount about. HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 are both endemic viruses that cause the common cold. Unfortunately, immunity to these viruses typically only lasts for an average of 45 weeks, which is one of the reasons most of us get a cold more than once in our lifetimes. If the SARS-CoV-2 virus only confers immunity for a similar length of time, then we could see annual outbreaks for some period of years. If immunity lasts a couple of years, then either biannual outbreaks with smaller outbreaks in the intervening years may occur up to or beyond 2024. Alternatively, the virus could appear to have been eradicated but reemerge as late as 2024 or 2025. These projections are based on prior experience with the two common cold betacoronaviruses.

The only scenario under which eradication of the virus within the next year appears likely is if
1. Immunity to SARS-CoV-2 is very long lasting (>2 years) 2. A very significant percentage of the population has acquired immunity either through exposure or vaccination. The second requirement does not appear at all likely to occur, at least within the US population within the coming year.

There is some evidence that prior exposure to HCoV-OC43 and HCoV-HKU1 impart some degree of intermediate cross-immunity to SARS-CoV-2, which might help a bit.
 

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Doom and gloom, restricting civil rights and freedom, controlling people and tanking the economy in order to establish socialism. That's what this is about.

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk
 

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If the Army Reserve and my regular job are willing to keep doing work from home for 5 years, I'm in!
 

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If the numbers we are at now just stayed it is under control now imo. A world where nobody ever gets sick isn’t practical or even desired really.
 
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