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Discussion Starter #1 (Edited)
CDC reports today has 300K excess deaths above expectation so far this year. 2/3 attributed to Covid.

https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6942e2.htm?s_cid=mm6942e2_w



Summary
What is already known about this topic?

As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from COVID-19 have been reported in the United States; however, this might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality.

What is added by this report?

Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths occurred from late January through October 3, 2020, with 198,081 (66%) excess deaths attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino persons.

As of October 15, 216,025 deaths from coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) have been reported in the United States*; however, this number might underestimate the total impact of the pandemic on mortality. Measures of excess deaths have been used to estimate the impact of public health pandemics or disasters, particularly when there are questions about underascertainment of deaths directly attributable to a given event or cause (16).† Excess deaths are defined as the number of persons who have died from all causes, in excess of the expected number of deaths for a given place and time. This report describes trends and demographic patterns in excess deaths during January 26–October 3, 2020. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated using overdispersed Poisson regression models with spline terms to account for seasonal patterns, using provisional mortality data from CDC’s National Vital Statistics System (NVSS) (7). Weekly numbers of deaths by age group and race/ethnicity were assessed to examine the difference between the weekly number of deaths occurring in 2020 and the average number occurring in the same week during 2015–2019 and the percentage change in 2020. Overall, an estimated 299,028 excess deaths have occurred in the United States from late January through October 3, 2020, with two thirds of these attributed to COVID-19. The largest percentage increases were seen among adults aged 25–44 years and among Hispanic or Latino (Hispanic) persons. These results provide information about the degree to which COVID-19 deaths might be underascertained and inform efforts to prevent mortality directly or indirectly associated with the COVID-19 pandemic, such as efforts to minimize disruptions to health care.

Estimates of excess deaths can provide a comprehensive account of mortality related to the COVID-19 pandemic, including deaths that are directly or indirectly attributable to COVID-19. Estimates of the numbers of deaths directly attributable to COVID-19 might be limited by factors such as the availability and use of diagnostic testing (including postmortem testing) and the accurate and complete reporting of cause of death information on the death certificate. Excess death analyses are not subject to these limitations because they examine historical trends in all-cause mortality to determine the degree to which observed numbers of deaths differ from historical norms. In April 2020, CDC’s National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) began publishing data on excess deaths associated with the COVID-19 pandemic (7,8). This report describes trends and demographic patterns in the number of excess deaths occurring in the United States from January 26, 2020, through October 3, 2020, and differences by age and race/ethnicity using provisional mortality data from the NVSS.§​
 
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This looks so different from the data on their own website:
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/covid19/excess_deaths.htm

When you look at excess deaths by cause group and subgroup it tells a different story. The top two groups are circulatory and Alzheimer’s and dementia groups.

I wonder what magic they are doing to massage the data they are presenting.
 

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Just wait, if Biden gets elected they will change how they define "death from ChinaVirus" just like the way they changed the definition of "unemployed" under Obama. Right after the definition change, Obama's unemployment numbers looked much better. After the change under Biden, The Left will get to crow that Joe decreased ChinaVirus deaths!
 

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Statistical magic. My son in law tells me how the VA plays with their data to reflect the newest trend. Sister in law worked at a small city PD. She was responsible for much of the reports sent to State and Federal Departments. Same thing, what is the latest requirement... less sexual assault of some degree, more white on black, less black on white.... statistics are a flexible weapon....
 

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I note the complete silence from our resident fear mongers, when pointed to CDC data that does not support their position.

In reading the notes the CDC seems to want you to believe some of the excess deaths may be from overwhelmed medical facilities, when evidence does not support that. In the minds deaths caused by people being turned away from medical because their issue was not CoVid related, now should be counted as an excess death due to CoVid rather than medical malfeasance and fear mongering. So they count things both ways. If you die from CoVid we count it, and if doctors don't treat you because it is not CoVid, they get to count it as well. Their position is total crap.

If people were dying from CoVid-19 we should expect the cause of death to fall in the respiratory group which has less than 6000 excess deaths since February 1, 2020 based on the CDC data.

Maybe the vast majority of the excess deaths is due to the panic induced by the media and "experts" (with the subsequent reduction of medical care for everything that wasn't CoVid-19).

No wonder our fear mongers are being silent on the detailed CDC data.
 

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I’m sure they “normalized” the control groups.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 

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Statistics don't lie and liars use statistics.

So how is it we have 300,000 excess deaths when it was predicted to expect upwards of 2 million Coronavirus deaths?

Statistics don't lie...
 

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Or the excess deaths could be from Primary care doctors and some specialists shutting down. People not going to the ER for stoke and heart attack symptoms because the media told they they all were going to die from CoVid-19. And suicides from isolation and lack of care from therapist and psychiatrist. Or because they lost their job. Or had no support system from their friends at school.
 

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300K dead, where r the funerals? Why are hospitals empty?
Haven’t seen funerals, as mentioned in another thread , this is a huge propaganda , media funded control game. Where we are, our governor is a absolute dic*
A fat obese, scumbag!
Closing down bars, restaurants, businesses. People are losing their businesses, jobs, etc. for what, some dem fat cholesterol laden bully,,closing the counties down!

yup, it’s prickster!
Such a den,robot.
He is truly a commie bastar*
He makes me sick. Our county is not shut off, but the way this scumbag dem is going, he will probably shut down the state.
He needs to be voted out.
But where we are, it’s unlikely!
 

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I note the complete silence from our resident fear mongers, when pointed to CDC data that does not support their position.

In reading the notes the CDC seems to want you to believe some of the excess deaths may be from overwhelmed medical facilities, when evidence does not support that. In the minds deaths caused by people being turned away from medical because their issue was not CoVid related, now should be counted as an excess death due to CoVid rather than medical malfeasance and fear mongering. So they count things both ways. If you die from CoVid we count it, and if doctors don't treat you because it is not CoVid, they get to count it as well. Their position is total crap.

If people were dying from CoVid-19 we should expect the cause of death to fall in the respiratory group which has less than 6000 excess deaths since February 1, 2020 based on the CDC data.

Maybe the vast majority of the excess deaths is due to the panic induced by the media and "experts" (with the subsequent reduction of medical care for everything that wasn't CoVid-19).

No wonder our fear mongers are being silent on the detailed CDC data.
Oh the fear mongers likely will be back.

Fauchi is on left msm cable pushing for mandatory masks. No thanksgiving for MAGA supporters, and vaccines will not be the magic solution so keep wearing masks into 2022. Lock downs for ever.

Likely see fauchi even more now that joe debate and laptop from hell. What the frack!
Watch the cdc numbers.
 

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The sausage makers keep on making sausage, garbage in garbage out
 

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CDC reports today has 300K excess deaths above expectation so far this year.....
Complete and utter horse ****.

Note the use of the word "expectation". That means whatever follows is complete and utter horse ****.

The REAL numbers;

 
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Discussion Starter #16 (Edited)
Complete and utter horse ****.

Note the use of the word "expectation". That means whatever follows is complete and utter horse ****.

The REAL numbers;

‘Expected deaths’ is a long-standing, well-understood metric of expected deaths per week/month/year, with decades of data behind it. It’s at the foundation of everything from life-insurance to tax planning at every level of government, and has been for decades.

Your ‘real data’ graphic - where to begin? You know that just multiplying 1/9th of the first nine months of the year by 3 to get the claimed October-December number isn’t an actual projection, right?

You’ve seriously lost the plot, amigo.

What on earth would cause you to believe/claim that this particular graphic represents the one true REAL set of data?

Do you even know where it came from, or who made it, or ANYTHING about it, other than it says what you wish was true?

You have a strange amount of confidence and intensity in support of a graphic you clearly haven’t bothered to do the math to understand, that doesn’t have any supporting data (because there isn’t any), and directly contradicts what the CDC is actually reporting.
 
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