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Simple Member
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Discussion Starter · #1 ·
Not doing much work right now and pretty much just staying home. Since my 401k is down a bunch, I thought I would try my hand playing some stocks. I have done okay so far just playing on the volatility. Seems like there are a whole bunch of other new players in the game keeping the market lively.
I have been testing out a couple of theories that seem to work for now and it is more fun then working on all the projects I should be doing around the house.
 
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I don't do day trading or any kind of short term stuff, but I do have 500 share of AAPL and 50 of TSLA. I'm enjoying the big gains.
 

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I am not making frequent trades, but I did get into the market at the end of March. Mostly IVV, a S&P ETF and XLE, an energy ETF. Since the end of March, the XLE is up 22% and the IVV is up 8%. It has been a roller coaster ride for sure.
 

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No. I tried for several years and I learned I wasn't smarter than the market. I put countless hours and resources into it trying.

Here is something simple for you to research:
  • Run a screen for all mutual funds.
  • cut the data for several timeframes. 1 month, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years and life
  • cut the data for again for all funds that have exceeded their target index
  • cut the data again for all funds that have exceeded the S&P
You will find you have only a handful left out of thousands of funds. If fund managers with the brightest finance and econ minds, working in tandem with the best analysts and computer programs running insane algorithms can't consistently beat the market, how do you think you will fare?

I worked for years before accepting that.

My recommendation:
Use your time and energy to focus on building a diversified portfolio of low cost mutual funds that produce a beta you are comfortable with over the long term. Think and learn quickly, move very slowly and deliberately.

I have not made any changes in my portfolio since the end of last year. I've lost less than market, my beta has remained where I had planned, and I don't plan on making any moves. The urge is there, but I've learned to resist it.

Good luck to you.
 

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The wife was in a 401k for a while 20 some odd years ago. I had to pick some funds to invest in, so I did, she wasn't in it long enough to amount to all that much money.............so we really didn't pay attention to what it was doing. I got a statement a few months ago, it has quietly grown into some money....................and the return was considerably more than what I am getting from my own 401k from my last employer, which is actively managed. Go figure. (the 401k from my last employer has done pretty well)
 

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Nope. I just long term invest. For the most part I put in when I can, take out when I have to. Way too close to gambling for my tastes otherwise.
 

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Mentally Frozen
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I've never considered it fun playing the market. It was more of well that was probably a stupid mistake when I bought or sold.
 

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Simple Member
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Discussion Starter · #9 ·
I was watching one of the "experts' on one of the shows when somebody asked if he could explain why some stock was going up. His answer - "This market is stupid"

I am just doing a little research and picking an individual stock that I think will go up .25¢ and I can make a couple hundred dollars. A bit risky, but so far it has panned out.

.
 

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Mr. Awesome
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I didn’t have fun when I learned my 10 shares of USO stock reverse splitting to 1 cost me a $38 fee on Ameritrade. I didn’t have fun when Visa Outdoor dropped 30%, last week. I only had two different stocks, USO and Vista Outdoor.

This is $100, I put in, just to play. In two weeks, my balance went from $109.xx to $52.xx. My real investments are handled by people who know what they are doing, for obvious reasons.

I’m the only guy, in the world, who can buy stock in the largest ammunition manufacturer and oil and lose my ass, even when I bought in at record low prices and ammo has skyrocketed in price and selling out while oil prices set records.
 

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SAF
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No. I tried for several years and I learned I wasn't smarter than the market. I put countless hours and resources into it trying.

Here is something simple for you to research:
  • Run a screen for all mutual funds.
  • cut the data for several timeframes. 1 month, 1 year, 3 years, 5 years, 10 years and life
  • cut the data for again for all funds that have exceeded their target index
  • cut the data again for all funds that have exceeded the S&P
You will find you have only a handful left out of thousands of funds. If fund managers with the brightest finance and econ minds, working in tandem with the best analysts and computer programs running insane algorithms can't consistently beat the market, how do you think you will fare?

I worked for years before accepting that.

My recommendation:
Use your time and energy to focus on building a diversified portfolio of low cost mutual funds that produce a beta you are comfortable with over the long term. Think and learn quickly, move very slowly and deliberately.

I have not made any changes in my portfolio since the end of last year. I've lost less than market, my beta has remained where I had planned, and I don't plan on making any moves. The urge is there, but I've learned to resist it.

Good luck to you.
That's wisdom. I dumped every common stock I owned around ten years ago and put my pennies in several Vanguard index funds. I've been in (and still am) in a few funds that have kicked market ass for years but overall the S&P 500 index is a whole lot more reliable. During the '90s you could throw darts at the big board and probably win, ain't that way anymore and hasn't been for quite a while.
 

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Discussion Starter · #12 ·
If you want to watch me go down in flames, I just bought Smiles Direct (SDC) @ $8.21 and put in a sale order for $8.51. I am betting it will be volatile enough tomorrow that it will hit.
 

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Who wants to gamble?

Find ten stocks that are trending upwards and buy all ten. Assume that half are going to go against you (and keep in mind that there will come a day that all of them will go against you).

Buy all ten and watch to see what happens. Sell the losers and put the money into the winners. Never buy or keep anything that's not going up - ever.

Only buy when the index is in a clear uptrend. The odds are in your favor.

Other things to keep in mind. What happens when the average person gets their hands on some money to invest? They don't want to use any kind of analysis or online scanner. They simply put it into something that is well known to be profitable. For years this was Microsoft and today it's Amazon.

Personally, I'm sidelined right now. I'm using the time to learn new software and rewrite algorithms.

V.
 

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How about a crash course (sic) in money management/position sizing?

Here is a crude money management system for commodity trading;

Take whatever you have to work with and cut it in half, half gets parked and half gets put into play. The half that's parked is your disaster fund.

Of the half put into play, never risk more than 3% to 5% on any given trade. There are few credible trading systems that will be wrong 20 times in a row so this will keep you in the game.

If you lose the active part of your stake, then you have to stop. There is something fundamentally wrong with what you are doing.

These percentages can be changed for stocks since they can only go to zero. Think about your own goals and orientation when designing something like this.

Don't throw your entire wad behind one or two stocks. If a given trade bothers you, then exit or reduce the size of your position to where you can think clearly.

You're not trying to beat the market, you're trying to beat your own human limitations.

V.
 

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The only thing I play now is my employers stock through HR they currently give us 15% so that's nice. Y/Y it's a little dicey with the last two months but still buying while it's "on sale".

I was in on Lowes and Home Depot but Sold Lowes awhile ago to make some other purchases. Going to hold HD for awhile.

Keep grinding those 401K's especially if you get company match benefits. I hear some companies are doing away with -or suspending- matching as of recently.
 

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Friends Call Me "Flash"
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I see the stock market as a foolish venture for people like us. Insider trading is a religion for people like our elected rulers. They play the insider tips, make a bundle and laugh as regular people like us take a bath in red ink. Nope, not me. I'd rather bury my money in a coffee can!

Flash
 

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I see the stock market as a foolish venture for people like us. Insider trading is a religion for people like our elected rulers. They play the insider tips, make a bundle and laugh as regular people like us take a bath in red ink. Nope, not me. I'd rather bury my money in a coffee can!

Flash
The stock market is like the old story about the gangster that walked into a gambling house..................a dealer in the gambling house recognized the gangster and discreetly warned him that all the games were "fixed"..................to which the gangster said" I know, but it is the only game in town.

Having said that, Benji destroyed all other interest bearing accounts, so we are stuck with the "market". It is what we have.......................You have to work with what you have got.
We are in crazy times.
 

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Jonesee is on the money here.

Unless you're a professional and spend the entire day reviewing balance sheets, identifying trends and can read charts like a shaman... Pay the loads and have a well managed fund make your profit. Review the top holdings of funds to determine how they lean (tech, financials, pharma etc.).

The best way to play the market, is to have cash available... For "These Uncertain
Times" and invest when a good opportunity presents itself (like right now).
 
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