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Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by DonGlock26, Oct 19, 2018.
Start at 00:35
Another housing bubble popping seems likely. No sooner than the last one popped, they were trying to re-inflate it.
I agree there is potential there, I downsized after the housing crash even though my area wasnt affected as much as others across the country. I see alot of people buying houses that is the maximum they can afford, instead of backing down to compensate for any potential money flow disruptions from missing work, losing a job and maybe having to take a lower paying job etc
Securities firms are selling mortgage backed securities once again - the same crap that got us into trouble in 2008. The securities ratings agencies Moody's, Standard & Poor's and Fitch have not changed one bit and will continue to rate these securities AAA, because the securities firms are in bed with the ratings agencies. 2008 taught us nothing. It's a matter of when, not if.
We never seem to learn from our mistakes. It's concerning.
If you are TBTF, there are no worries, it is party time.
If you aren't, prepare to be shorn
I'm seeing loans are more difficult to get since 2012 to now, compared to 2004.
In addition, prices are not going high, obnoxiously high, as they did in 2004.
So I don't see a bust, if any, to the degree that happened post 2005.
In fact, back in 2004, I drove into completed Subdivisions and saw only a few homes with lights or cars in front. This time, most homes are occupied. Prices had increased since 2015, but slow and holds much more solid this time.
Watch out for a short burst upward, however. Hurricane Michael reconstruction actually sucks up a lot of building material (shingles, woods, etc.) such that new home construction at other places are behind schedule, by two months! That results in short supply of available homes and drives up home prices, but not a long term phenomenon.
Too Big To Fail?
"Affirmative Action in mortgage lending" -- that's exactly what it is.
In the last mortgage crisis, sub-prime lending went up in largely black communities by 16 percent. That's huge, and proved a recipe for the expected financial catastrophe.
Marry political activism, an industry that believes the government will bail it out, and government entities encouraging the practice, and you have Groundhog Day all over again.
Of course, they'll blame it all on President Trump.
At least maybe President Trump is more likely to get something done about it if it is an issue. President Bush tried to warn about the last one and just got laughed down. Didn't have the resources/skill/backbone to make headway.
Trump be like bull on through, get proven right, then "ha, ha, see how right I was you stupid horsefaces".
and sorry about this but:
In GA, new housing supply is running about even with demand right now. Existing homes get snapped up pretty quickly (ours sold in two weeks in July). The bride is a mortgage loan officer and isn't worried for the near future, and she retires in a couple more years anyway.
Lightning never strikes exactly the same place twice. Point being, there is another debt bubble growing and it will eventually deflate, but it will not be a carbon copy of last time and it has nothing to do with real estate.
Can you tell me how a lender knows the race of the buyer?
(note, this is a set-up. I've been in lending >30 years...)
What does race have to do with it? We're talking about AA for financially disadvantaged people.
Can you explain how AA has played into it.
(same disclaimer as before)
Of course, you'll insist that political activism, both by civilian activists and politicians, doesn't come into play in any shape or form.
I can explain how an emphasis on minority home ownership beginning in the 90s ultimately played into the last crash....
In 30 years, political and civilian activism has never played a part in underwriting and risk assessment.
The stereotypes of lenders is true. They are profit driven. The balancing act is between profit, competitive pressures and portfolio risk.
Are banks making subprime loans? The last bubble inflated because the banks were lending any amount to anyone for any reason, and not worrying about the consequences because they were just selling the loans off. After the crash, this stopped, and real underwriting seemed to be happening. Has anyone seen evidence that this has gone back to the original pre-2008 situation? I haven't.