all these polls showing biden ahead...

Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by BSA70, Oct 11, 2020.

  1. IvanVic

    IvanVic

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    A democrat can win a presidential election without cheating, but of course that doesn't mean they wouldn't try to cheat anyway. Remember, they start out by default with nearly 200 electoral votes...and yet they still want to abolish the electoral college. Demographics are changing because of our terrible legal immigration policies adopted a half century ago. I don't understand how people can be privy to our "education" system brainwashing generations of people, understand how suicidal our immigration policies have been, understand how the media manipulates people...and then go on to claim a democrat can't win without cheating. Preemptively declaring that fraud was the cause of a Biden win makes someone as bad as or worse than the people who perpetrated the Russian hoax. Evidence is required for rational people to believe claims of massive fraud, which is why I never bought into the Russia narrative.

    Agreed. I would go as far as saying that without Florida's 29 electoral votes a republican simply cannot win - not unless there's a massive migration of people within the U.S. in the future that changes the political landscape. If Trump lost Florida in 2016, he would have barely held on with 277 electoral votes. Having said that, if a republican loses Florida, they will almost certainly lose another swing state in the process. This is what worries me about the unprecedented demographic changes in the southern part of FL because of our legal immigration polices.
     
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  2. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    I’ve seen some maps that involve a plausible Trump win without FL. That said, he is MUCH more likely to win with it, than without.

    The good thing is there seem to be a lot of people in S FL who lived or had relatives live in Cuba. Who DO NOT like Communism and do not like to growing support for Communism from the left. I think it’s turning a lot of them to vote Trump. But we shall see.
     
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  3. IvanVic

    IvanVic

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    My argument against this is that past experiences do not change the political opinions of groups as a whole. This is illustrated by migration patterns in the US as leftists move to red states and continue to vote for the polices they fled.

    Do experiences change the voting patterns of certain individuals? Yep, but it doesn’t seem to work on average, which is why a massive influx of Hispanics has changed the political landscape in every singe area of the country where it occurred. It’s exactly why the left wants as many Hispanics to come here as possible. They believe a combination of culture, entitlement programs and identity politics will make most of them lifelong democrats. So far, they are right.
     
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  4. OttoLoader

    OttoLoader

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    The republicans gave up on even campaigning toward the "democrat voting" minorities.
    So of course the republicans would not get many or any votes. Self fulfilling.

    Pedident Trump has.

    This year cpuld be a significant in crease in black voters for Trump.

    Larry Elders believe around 15% in 2020, 8% in 2016.
     
  5. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    I don’t think that, in the long run, their importation of Hispanics is going to work out well for the Democrats.

    Hispanics OVERWHELMINGLY believed Trump won the first debate (87% or some other huge number.)

    In general, Hispanics tend to be catholic and believe in the value of hard work. They are not going to be as receptive to Dem promises of handouts for everybody. We’re already starting to see this trend in Hispanic approval #s for Trump. I don’t think the Hispanic community is going to let themselves be enslaved by the Dems the way other minority groups have. (Although even those groups are starting to wake up also.)

    Meanwhile, the impact of the Cuban thing should not be underestimated with respect to S Florida.

    We’re at a pivotal point in history in a lot of ways. Trump Freedom vs Dem Fascisim is getting all the attention, but I think we’re also seeing a major realignment of the political parties as well.

    The Republicans aren’t the same party anymore. The Dems have completely abandoned the working class in favor of catering to elites.

    If the country survives, we may well find that the parties and political landscape of the next 50 years look very different from what it’s been like for the last 50.
     
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  6. IvanVic

    IvanVic

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    Trump isn’t going to get 87% of the Hispanic vote, or 51% of it for that matter. That poll is meaningless. What matters is how they vote, and Hispanics vote overwhelmingly Democrat. Trump won 28% of the Hispanic vote in 2016.

    As countries become more and more diverse, they destabilize as their shared culture declines and they fragment. Identity politics is as sure as gravity in diverse nations.

    The left knows exactly what they’re doing by pushing for more and more legal Hispanic immigration and amnesty for illegal aliens. Mass migration is electoral suicide for people whose unique culture is that of small government.
     
  7. TheDreadnought

    TheDreadnought

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    Where did I say he’s going to get 87% of the Hispanic vote?

    I just said they approved of his debate performance.

    He got 28% in 16, I’m sure he’ll do a lot better this time.

    I agree that we need to lock down our immigration system. I’m just pointing out that the Dem strategy might backfire on them over time.
     
  8. B C

    B C

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    A family member that works for one of the big investment firms says the risk program that looks at futures tied to the election shows a decisive Democrat win.

    I don't know what to think now.
     
  9. peng

    peng

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    I think our goose is cooked here gents. Trump has already lost because of early and increased voting.

    Remember it only takes a tiny percentage of voters to change the outcome. The virus and it's impact on the economy did us in. I hate it, but am beginning to strongly believe it. I'll add bending over to my daily stretching routine I guess.

    4 years of flame and retribution to come.
     
  10. OttoLoader

    OttoLoader

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    Following southwestern michigan trends I believe Trump will win Michigan.
    Unless there is massive voter fraud by the democrats.