100,000 dead

Discussion in 'Covid-19 News/Info' started by G33, May 22, 2020.

  1. Dave514

    Dave514

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    You said there is nothing to fear. I said Well, unless you're one of the 1.1 million in the US with an active case of the disease trying to not become one of the 100,000 dead people.

    What about that are you opposing with this post?
     
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  2. SDGlock23

    SDGlock23 JABRONI AUTIST

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    I hope you enjoy it, it's pretty good.
     

  3. GlockerBill

    GlockerBill

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    My goodness, you are right. He has a video trying to prove the earth is flat. I always thought "flat earthers" were a term conjured up to insult those who disagree with politically correct policies... but this guy actually believes the earth is flat. These people really exist. I'm beginning to realize I don't have enough ammo.
     
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  4. BigBluefish

    BigBluefish

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    I'll still put money in .6-.7% by the time we are all through. Not the end of the world, but plenty of "totally sucks" to go around.
     
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  5. Dave514

    Dave514

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    I'm an hour and five minutes into this video. Bill Gates is taking over the world's health system to impose vaccines on the world for the purpose of population control. We might even have some implants that can be turned on and off remotely as birth control. Bill even says that by improving the health of children, poor families in destitute countries won't keep popping out children so that 2 might live to adulthood.
     
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  6. M&P15T

    M&P15T All Hail King Kona

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    Yeah....those numbers might be good too. Very reasonable.
     
  7. GlockerBill

    GlockerBill

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    https://spectator.us/lockdown-wrong-matt-labash-toby-young-debate/

    and then you have great "journalism" such as this, which never even considers symptomatic cases and prints 5.9% death rate. people see the number, lock it in, and miss the devil in the details. no credibility any more with media/government.
     
  8. mike from st pe

    mike from st pe

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    100,000 isn't that about the number of folks lost to Medical Misadventure?
     
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  9. rock_castle

    rock_castle All Lives Matter

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    That's just life. SIDS sucks too. So does liver disease, cancer, and a hundred other things.
     
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  10. BobbyS

    BobbyS Truth always sounds like lies to a sinner

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    a mask is like a tinfoil hat
     
  11. BigBluefish

    BigBluefish

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    Looks like we broke the 100K body count yesterday.

    Maybe with the next stimulus bill, we'll all get participation trophies.
     
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  12. Mr Meeseeks

    Mr Meeseeks

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    Theorists among us will say this number is only 80k. All over counting, no uncounted cases who died at home. I’m have no way to know if that’s correct or not, and seems like it’s grasping at straws.

    I think we can all agree that the nationwide lockdown hurt the economy. Lots could have been done better. If I knew enough to buy masks in late Jan based on a gun forum, the global titans of power shoulda been acting faster.

    I’ll take some heat for this. Don’t want to play with unfalsifiable counter-factuals too much, but how many would be dead had we not locking things down (especially hot zones like NYC, LA, etc). It strains credulity to think the numbers wouldn’t be significantly higher, as most folks stayed home during the seasonal peak.

    Not fruitful to compare the US to Swedish model where folks already have good hygiene, a relatively large personal-space, etc. Also inappropriate to compare us to countries like SK with widespread mask usage and contact tracing. I’m not sure where you’d have to go to find a higher percentage of undisciplined booger eaters than the US. Maybe third world.

    Had we acted early, no lockdown. If 90% of population could consistently follow public health guidance, no lockdown. A combination of an extraordinarily costly lockdown and seasonality will knock this bug back to a slow burn, and complacency will set in at all levels. Hopefully they’re working on a second season of Tiger King for December.
     
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  13. racerford

    racerford

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    We had a lockdown for one reason, 2.2 million predicted deaths, based on bad models built with bad data.

    we had very few deaths at the time and not that many cases.

    The best Legal moves were shutting down the incoming travel from China, then elsewhere. Well within the rights of the President to exclude foreign nationals. Because of poor information flow from China, it was bit too late, even though the Dems complained loudly about racism.
     
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  14. mike from st pe

    mike from st pe

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  15. pblanc

    pblanc

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    The SARS-CoV-2 pandemic will certainly be the worst in terms of US mortality that I will have seen in my lifetime, and I am getting up in years.

    That is unless something even worse comes along before I kick the bucket which is always a possibility. I was around for the Asian flu, the Hong Kong flu, the HIV/AIDs pandemic, and the Swine flu.

    US mortality rates for the Asian flu and the Hong Kong flu vary greatly. The CDC's mortality estimates are the highest but other sources have much lower mortality estimates, some less than half those of the CDC. But even if we accept the CDC estimates the covid-19 pandemic has already likely killed at least as many Americans as the Hong Kong flu did. And it will certainly kill more Americans before the year is out than the Asian flu did. The covid-19 US death toll has long ago surpassed that of the Swine flu or any influenza A or B seasonal outbreaks in recent history.

    HIV/AIDs is a bit different. That virus is endemic in our population and is not likely going away. Fortunately, effective treatment protocols emerged that drastically reduced the death toll. In total, HIV has probably killed as many as three quarters of a million Americans since 1987 but even in the worst years of the late 1990s it killed a maximum of 40-42 thousand Americans per year. More recently, it has killed 13-15 thousand Americans per year.

    Personally, I think the overall infection fatality rate for SARS-CoV-2 when the dust settles is unlikely to fall below 0.5% unless new and more effective treatment modalities emerge. But it is important to understand that our collective adventure with covid-19 is very far from over. Unless a safe and effective vaccine is developed and becomes widely available, or unless very extensive PCR testing becomes available and people submit to it, and extensive contact tracing and self-quarantine of contacts happens, I believe that the virus will continue to propagate through the population for an unknown time, certainly to the end of this calendar year and possibly for several years, until considerable collective acquired immunity has developed.

    As far as an extensive portion of the US population having already been exposed, certainly there are many undiagnosed cases. But antibody testing in New York City revealed positive tests in slightly less than 20% of individuals tested. And the non-randomized, non-representative nature of that test population and the testing methodology used make it likely that is an overestimate of seropositvity in the NYC population. If less than 20% of residents in New York City have been exposed, the population in the US that has obviously been impacted the worst by this pandemic, then the incidence in the general US population is far, far less. If 90% of the US population has yet to be exposed, it means that many millions more Americans will likely contract the virus at some point in time. And that means that even an infection fatality rate of 0.4-0.5% could result in a huge number of additional American deaths.
     
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  16. czsmithGT

    czsmithGT

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    In my opinion, the wholesale lockdowns and shutting down of businesses and wrecking our economy will turn out to be the most massive mistake in my lifetime.

    Protecting the truly vulnerable populations of people over 70, people in rest homes, and people working in high risk places crowded into very close spaces could have cut the death rate from Covid-19 and it’s side effects (whatever it turns out to be) by a huge percentage without destroying our economy and wasting trillions of taxpayer dollars.
     
  17. racerford

    racerford

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    While it may surpass the raw death counts of the novel flu outbreaks of 1957, and 1968-69, it still has a way to go. The counts I saw were 116k, and 100k deaths in the US respectively. Adjusted for population it would be about 215k and 160k. If you tried to adjust for the effect of population density, the numbers of the historical may adjust higher. So we still have a bit to go. No doubt we haven’t seen the end of the current pandemic. I hope see very few more deaths.

    Just like all past epidemics we need to learn to accept that we cannot save everyone and that there is a balance between safety and living in liberty. Liberty is neither safe, nor without cost. I prefer liberty over the safety(?) of quarantining the well along side the sick. Most assuredly that will only put the well at more risk. When did quarantining the sick stop being effective?
     
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  18. thespork

    thespork

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    Quarentining the sick was the Chinese and Taiwanese solution..
    And when I say the sick, I mean anyone infected. Even the mildly symptomatic were not allowed to convalesce at home. The government took over hotels and other facilities and housed (or imprisoned depending on how you look it) them there...

    This worked to... But I don't think Americans would stand for it..

    If I were to get tested, and it showed I was positive, and my family weren't infected, I'd gladly take a two week stay in a hotel to avoid infecting them..

    But a lot of people don't think that way
     
  19. pblanc

    pblanc

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    You can find all sorts of mortality figures for prior influenza pandemics. Here is one that estimates 69,800 US deaths for the Asian flu pandemic and 33,800 US deaths for the Hong Kong flu pandemic:

    http://www.myfluvaccine.com/awareness/history.html