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Grid down - first 24 hours

14K views 176 replies 60 participants last post by  DKSmith45 
#1 ·
I consider the "Grid Down " scenario to be the most likely. I base this on it's age and how
Prone it is to attack. For instance, the Metcalf Incident from 2013 has never been solved.
In 2003 we had the largest black out in U.S. history. Supposedly, there are about 11 or 12 critical Substations that if taken down simultaneously, would collapse the grid. Here's the
Scenario I wish to discuss. At 06:30 some morning, the power goes out. There are no
Storms in the area. Your landline is dead and you can't reach anyone on your cell phone even
Though it is still working. Let's discuss what you do to distinguish a grid down scenario from
An EMP attack. After that, how you would proceed in that first 24 hours.
 
#28 · (Edited)
If the Internet is down, I'd probably get a chance to talk to my 16 year old son.

I'm sure if the fecal material really hits the rotary oscillating device, people will find places to congregate and beat on each other. Roads would likely be grid locked.
I'd avoid these areas.

I have two radios with solar cells, and a battery operated radio that gets shortwave. I'd check to see if any of these seem to work and if needed, hook up to an antenna.
... stay at home or close to home. ... Generator will run the fridge .... Cooking on the BBQ, have spare tanks. Plenty of cash available; bikes for transportation to town (about 3 miles). Make sure guns and ammo are readily available. .... I think a set of portable radios might be useful.
+1
 
#6 ·
If I can make it in to work, I go to work. Sounds sarcastic maybe, but it's the truth. If it's "just" no electricity, we still have customers that need helping. My people may or may not make it in; they're mostly younger and still have kids at home, which we don't.

If I can't make it in to work for whatever reason, I guess I stay home or go check on some family members (my wife's parents are still alive), depending on communications or lack thereof.
 
#7 · (Edited)
I went through the 03 blackout and this past winter we had a three day blackout. We did what we always do. Open the cupboard, get out the flashlights and LED lanterns. Do a quick inventory of the cabinet where we keep our emergency supplies. Go out to the shed and drag out the generator and plug it into the transfer switch. In the winter, I bring out the kero heaters with propane heaters as back up. In summer, it's fans.

I have enough food for about a month, enough water for at least a couple weeks with other water sources available. I have enough wood, gasoline, propane and kerosene to last a good while.

Regardless of the circumstances, the basics are..(not necessarily in order)
-light (flashlights, lanterns either battery,propane, gas etc)
-heat (and fuel i.e, wood, gasoline, kerosene, propane, electricity)
-shelter (if at home a way to secure against damage i.e tarps, shutters, etc)
-food (and a way to prepare/cook)
-water (stored and other sources)
-communications (both passive i.e, radio, TV, and active i.e ham/two way radio, internet, cell phone)
-security (both passive i.e locks, fences, barriers, cameras, alarms and active i.e, firearms, patrols etc)
 
#12 ·
Well, this certainly generated some interesting responses. No really wrong answers,
Although you might want to stay sober. Didn't know that some cell phone towers have
Generators, ours out here don't. In my opinion, I'm going to check the multi band radio since
Our land line is out(unusual for a power outage). Let's move on to the next scene in our
Fictional scenario. You've scanned AM, FM, weather band, aviation band, and shortwave.
You found activity on the aviation band. It doesn't sound good. Power outage is widespread
And causing major problems. On shortwave your picking up Ham radio transmissions (most
Have backup generators). In rural locations they're trying to set up Emergency Operation
Centers with law enforcement. In cities your hearing EOC's coming on line and telling everyone
To remain calm. Ham radio operators are becoming active all over. They are all describing the
Same scenario, massive grid failure nationwide. What is your next move? Oh, by the way,
Not long after I wrote this, we had a brief power outage (no storms in the area). Quite a
Coincidence.
 
#25 ·
...next scene in our
Fictional scenario. You've scanned AM, FM, weather band, aviation band, and shortwave.
You found activity on the aviation band. It doesn't sound good. Power outage is widespread
And causing major problems. On shortwave your picking up Ham radio transmissions (most
Have backup generators). In rural locations they're trying to set up Emergency Operation
Centers with law enforcement. In cities your hearing EOC's coming on line and telling everyone
To remain calm. Ham radio operators are becoming active all over. They are all describing the
Same scenario, massive grid failure nationwide...
Would have already contacted our sons who each live an hour's drive or so from us (in different directions); or at least tried to do so, on day one whether at work or home. They're both in small cities of 30-60k population, one is married, one isn't; if the outage is that widespread (ie, nationwide), I'd try to talk them into heading our way temporarily to ride it out.

Multiple reasons - naturally the 'dad' thing; knowing that if things got ugly they'd be safer here than there, and fact is, we'd also be better off with them here than without them. Would mean more mouths to feed, but not a problem unless it turned into really long-term; and having two large, strong, trustworthy young men who grew up shooting and working, would certainly be a good thing on our side of the scale as well.

If I can make it in to work, do additional non-scheduled backups of computer stuff and put in one of the safes. Also, break out the supplies we have set aside in our building for our employees and try to get them to them if they can't get in to work. Our people don't know about it, but we have small amounts of prep supplies in a locked room with their names on them. Two or three buckets of food items each (type and amounts vary based on family size, kids' ages, etc), spare ammo in calibers of guns I know they own, and in a couple cases, even a loaner gun.

Other stuff kind of depends. If the mail's still running, use the business' generator to print & mail out copies of a form letter to mail to customers to let them know anything I can and to also give them some suggestions on things to do soon. Touch base with local sheriff dept and PD (I know a bunch of them and the police chief is a personal friend), to let them know where we're located if help is needed with whatever comes up.

Frankly I'd 'protect' some of our business' inventory by relocating it to our home location. We keep cases of 12V batteries, and hundreds of small batteries from button-cell to flashlight batteries, on the shelf; and the bulk of those would follow me home. Other things as well, like some small tools, chargers, carbon-monoxide and other detectors, etc, misc supplies like duct tape, rope, wire, couple of the portable generators if possible, trash bags & cans, that kind of thing.

Obviously, good idea to double-check for anything that needs topping off. Fuel tanks, water tanks, whatever; if it can still be safely done. Partly the reason for the trash cans & bags; reinforce even a plastic trash can with wraps of wire or rope around it (secured in place by tying to itself or even good tape just to hold the wire in place), pop in a couple layers of clean bags, and it's up to being stored full of liquid. Set it wherever it'll be accessible, safe and out of the way, and fill it up with a hose (in our case, running the well pump off the generator), and in one re-purposed trash can you can have a week or two worth of treatable water for several people. Several of those in your basement or wherever could be a very good thing.
 
#19 ·
I feel fortunate to live where I do that being rural Iowa. Although I'm not a "prepper" like on that TV show I do believe in being prepared for possible emergencies. I have a four month supply of food for one, reliable clean water source and a tractor driven generator. Guess the first thing I'd do is go get my dad and hope the kids can make it here.
 
#21 ·
Clean water and sanitation will be my Achilles heel. I have a fairly good supply of food (depending upon how many mouths we feed).

We don't have a well but the water table is pretty high. The down side is that a latrine system would probably have to be enclosed, so as to not contaminate said well.
 
#23 · (Edited)
Westexas, if it's ONLY a grid-down scenario, then at least for the first few days some AM/FM stations will still be on the air, as many/most of them have some kind of backup power sources so they can serve as Emergency Broadcast System transmitters in the aftermath of storms or military attacks. Even if the only stations you have nearby are small rural stations, there are a few Clear Channel "super station" AM stations that are allowed to run 50,000 watt transmitters, which means they have a HUGE coverage area for direct transmissions, and an even larger "skip" (skywave propagation) reception area, especially at night or when atmospheric conditions are favorable. You should be able to hear one or more of these stations anywhere in the lower 48 on most nights. If you were getting NOTHING on the AM/FM bands in the first 24 hours, then I'd say that's a clear sign that it's NOT just a grid-down situation. It may be EMP, or it might be a major solar storm causing similar grid damage and adding signal interruptions for those stations still on the air under their own power. If it's a solar storm, the first night afterward would probably have an awesome aurora light show.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clear-channel_station

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_50_kW_AM_radio_stations_in_the_United_States

I remember growing up in Southern Michigan, and using a small handheld AM radio to listen to WWL in bed at night. The signal was weak, and sometimes would fade in and out, but given that WWL is located in New Orleans, LA, I was pretty impressed that I could hear them at all.
 
#24 ·
And this is exactly why I wanted input. I want to learn. I didn't know that about AM/FM stations.
We'll assume for this scenario that it's not an x-class solar flare since we would have warning
Before it hits. I believe that during the Carrington event, the actual ejection arrived some
Hours after professor Carrington spotted it in his telescope. Your right about the light show,
It could be seen all the way to the equator in both hemispheres. Great post!
 
#27 ·
First couple of days, I'm going to stay at home or close to home. Will start scouting deer, turkey with the neighbors. Generator will run the fridge and well; but we have a 3500 gallon storage tank that will be drawn on first. Cooking on the BBQ, have spare tanks. Plenty of cash available; bikes for transportation to town (about 3 miles). Make sure guns and ammo are readily available. There's only one entrance to the area, we might consider blocking it. I think a set of portable radios might be useful.
 
#29 ·
I consider the "Grid Down " scenario to be the most likely. I base this on it's age and how
Prone it is to attack. For instance, the Metcalf Incident from 2013 has never been solved.
In 2003 we had the largest black out in U.S. history. Supposedly, there are about 11 or 12 critical Substations that if taken down simultaneously, would collapse the grid. Here's the
Scenario I wish to discuss. At 06:30 some morning, the power goes out. There are no
Storms in the area. Your landline is dead and you can't reach anyone on your cell phone even
Though it is still working. Let's discuss what you do to distinguish a grid down scenario from
An EMP attack. After that, how you would proceed in that first 24 hours.

Most likely, I'd get up, put the dogs in the yard, and go to work.


If you're worried about power, a stand by generator, is pretty easy to purchase and plumb. Mine will power me for more than a month.
 
#34 ·
We're starting to see personal stories about what people would do. This is what I want. Now
We're going to move the story ahead. Ham radio operators are reporting a number of
Substations around the country are on fire. Some report hearing explosions. Let's talk about a
Fictional character called "Joe". He realizes after listening to shortwave radio that it's hit the fan.
His gas generator currently does not work. He has a 1,800 watt solar generator. The first thing
He does is head to the grocery store for bags of ice, brown rice, and lentils or beans. The store
Tells him they can't make Change. No problem, he over pays and tells them to keep it. He is already stocked up, but more is better. He also knows that 1 cup of brown rice to 1/4 cup of
Any legume gives him a complete protein. The ice goes in the fridge. The solar generator has
Too low of wattage to run the large refrigerator. He has a tank (225gal.) out back for rain
Collection for the garden. He cleans the tank, fills it with fresh water, and adds 1/2 cup of bleach.
He fills other containers with water realizing that the water towers around town only have
About three days of water. Longer if the town has backup generators for them. He has a grill,
Three tanks of propane, a solar oven, water purifier that he built using ceramic filters, food, canning salt for brining meat, Weapons, ammunition, two mountain bikes with a trailer, and a wife that's a crack shot. He's Made prior arrangements with other preppers to come to his home
Bringing all their supplies since he lives on the edge of town. He's also familiar with edible plants
In his area. He has no well either. Has he done everything he can to prepare for this? Is
There anything else he should do? One more thing, he doesn't have enough cash on hand to
Buy a gas generator.
 
#42 ·
We're starting to see personal stories about what people would do. This is what I want. Now
We're going to move the story ahead. Ham radio operators are reporting a number of
Substations around the country are on fire. Some report hearing explosions. Let's talk about a
Fictional character called "Joe". He realizes after listening to shortwave radio that it's hit the fan.
His gas generator currently does not work. He has a 1,800 watt solar generator. The first thing
He does is head to the grocery store for bags of ice, brown rice, and lentils or beans. The store
Tells him they can't make Change. No problem, he over pays and tells them to keep it. He is already stocked up, but more is better. He also knows that 1 cup of brown rice to 1/4 cup of
Any legume gives him a complete protein. The ice goes in the fridge. The solar generator has
Too low of wattage to run the large refrigerator. He has a tank (225gal.) out back for rain
Collection for the garden. He cleans the tank, fills it with fresh water, and adds 1/2 cup of bleach.
He fills other containers with water realizing that the water towers around town only have
About three days of water. Longer if the town has backup generators for them. He has a grill,
Three tanks of propane, a solar oven, water purifier that he built using ceramic filters, food, canning salt for brining meat, Weapons, ammunition, two mountain bikes with a trailer, and a wife that's a crack shot. He's Made prior arrangements with other preppers to come to his home
Bringing all their supplies since he lives on the edge of town. He's also familiar with edible plants
In his area. He has no well either. Has he done everything he can to prepare for this? Is
There anything else he should do? One more thing, he doesn't have enough cash on hand to
Buy a gas generator.
Planning his electrical requirements and testing his solar generator/solar oven would enable a realistic evaluation. For instance, my Goal 0 Yeti 400 is GREAT at providing light. Plug in a single cup coffee maker to the fully charged battery and... nothing. I guess the initial draw is too great.

I sell Sun Ovens and use mine all the time. Although they are AMAZING, they take experience to get the best results. Plan on a few ruined meals due to various reasons.

I live in a great region (Utah) but don't think there's enough game to support the entire population of the state. Wyoming might, though. Food for thought (pun intended).

I want to supplement my paltry 160 gallons of stored water but haven't gotten around to it...
 
#36 ·
A lot more than that, it also has a lot to do with the specifics.

It may not "disable" a vehicle, but rather require it to be restarted.

It may "disable" vehicles ontop of a parking garage, exposed, but may not disable the vehicles on the subsequent levels.


Construction materials, location, existing other conditions will all play a massive part in the end results.
 
#37 ·
There are common issues and preps for all emergencies. Everything I mentioned in my first post can be applied to every situation. The only variable is length and severity which will determine how long your supplies will last.
 
#38 ·
With this last post from mac 66 in mind I'll provide more information. Let's say this whole scenario
Starts off the "metcalf incident". Our next fictional character is Bob, a disgruntled and very angry
Electrical engineer with combat training. He was fired from his job with the power company and
Exacted his revenge at the Metcalf substation. He's extremely intelligent. He attracts the attention
Of an Isis commander who has been in this country a long time (thanks to our border situation) quietly recruiting people for Something big. This commander is also very smart and only recruits
People he knows are disciplined and motivated. He's very careful and has been carefully
"Grooming " Bob for some time. Bob knows what are the main substations and how and in what
Order to take them down. Bob is now on board. The commander has over one hundred men at
His disposal and has spent over a year training them. They strike. Now, I've read that taking down
Just 11 or 12 main substations will bring the entire grid down. Is this based in reality or is it
Fiction? Anyone here an electrical engineer, lineman, etc. that could shed light on this?
 
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