Why most Doomsday preppers will die

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by PaulMason, Sep 9, 2012.

  1. Been to Stuttgart only once,but have hunted White River, various private land (made friends with a logger who hunted),and Bayou Meade (?). But I'm past those years,gotten lazy!....... DOC

    Wanna kill these ads? We can help!
  2. quake

    Millennium Member

    Bayou Meto probably; good area.

  3. ICARRY2

    ICARRY2 NRA Life Member

    What "non-threatening" person is he going to send and how is that person going to find out who has what without being detected?

    Also, what makes him think I'm going to just sit and watch him and 30 criminal street gang members roll up to my front door without doing anything (like opening fire) while he tries to force his way into my home?

    As someone noted earlier gangs are about fear and intimidation.
    His videos are merely meant to intimidate us. He and most gangbangers are a bunch of welfare twats without a brain or an ounce of common sense.

    They will die off or be too weak to start heading for the burbs.
  4. Killed a ton of ducks in there, good times
  5. It could happen by accident. Some poor lady w/child is starving and you give them some food...a group stops them and shakes them down for the food and intel. "Yeah, the gray house with the long driveway", "..really, how many guys live there?".

    Most people are not going to shoot down an unarmed person walking up to the house, let alone torture someone. They fear being held accountable for their actions, as well as being restrained by moral fiber.

    We all start with a store some food and take a few precautions mentality here and then progress to concertina wire and sandbags because there's always a "what if" or an escalation of the scenario. People can't even survive a hurricane, but are going to use small unit tactics?
    #65 beatcop, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
  6. Man, woman, small child, and baby in arms of mother walk up and ask for help - see what they can see and report back?

    Have all binoculars and scopes disappeared because TSHTF? Or is it that they only work in the hands of the good guys.


    I think much of what the guy in the video says is true - some preppers have all the answers, think like defenders not attackers, think the attackers are stupid etc.

    The army has war games just for these reasons - to find out the weaknesses in their plans.
  7. mac66

    mac66 Huge Member
    Millennium Member

    Reality check time...

    In the 20th and 21st century to date, name one catastrophic event in this country that precipitated the kind of scenarios you guys are talking about?....(cricket sounds :whistling:)

    What on God's green earth makes you think that the US will suddenly go Barbarian?
  8. Where did anyone said it did or would?
    #68 PaulMason, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
  9. ICARRY2

    ICARRY2 NRA Life Member

    Thats my point. Those people stand out.

    When people start asking questions or strangers start needing help, I start getting very quiet and become very alert.
  10. Nobody is saying it will, however, three points.

    1. Google Normalcy Bias. Your post is the very definition of it.

    2. The barbarians are already here. They are always there within any civilization, supressed until there is a catastrophy that allows them to act with relative impunity. What do you think the criminal element is?

    3. Even without a nationwide breakdown, individual areas of the U.S. may experience periods of disaster or unrest that cause local conditions where this type of threat exists. Off the top of my head, in the 20th Cen. we had the Great Depression and all sorts of riots. In the 21st we had Katrina and the current trend of flash mobs ransacking businesses and neighborhoods.

    History is the ultimate "Reality Check." You were the one to invoke it, I hope you can learn from it. Disasters happen. Bad people and mobs act barbarous. Smart people prepare for that.

    No society lasts forever or unscathed. What is magic about the 20th & 21st Century that makes you think civil war or other major disruption can't happen in the future? The vast majority of humanity has historically lived with the threat of displacement and barbarianism.

    We have been fortunate (and I believe especially blessed) that in America this there has not been an existential threat on our soil for 250 years. The rest of the world, including advanced 1st world countries, have not been that blessed.
    #70 Unistat, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012

  11. So, because its been a little over a hundred years since its happened, that means it can't ever happen again?

    No one is saying its going to, or it will, or when. We're simply talking about what could happen.
  12. That "normalcy bias" pretty much nailed it down.

    The USA may have a decent track record, however humanity doesn't...Serbs, Croats, Liberia, etc.

    The old "thin veneer of society" saying comes into play. Sometimes the appearance of a good defense just keeps honest people honest....or at least from entertaining thoughts of shopping at your house.

    -seatbelts, full tank of gas, full shelves, a gun, etc....it's called cheap insurance. I think it satisfies some primitive brain need...some people have been deprogrammed over thousands of years to even acknowledge "safety issues".
    #72 beatcop, Sep 12, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 12, 2012
  13. I understand being prepared for bad weather, but the complete downfall of society?
  14. My thinking is that if a person doesn't like guns, don't buy one. But, don't take away people's right to have a gun. If a person doesn't wants to prepare for rain but not to prepare for a hurricane that is their choice.
  15. lawman800

    lawman800 Juris Glocktor

    No well thought out plan survives first engagement.
  16. “He who fails to plan, plans to fail”
  17. kirgi08

    kirgi08 Southern Rogue.
    Silver Member

    Insurance is just that,no matter what the cause or need.'08.
  18. Downfall? Probably not likely.

    Some freak incident: EMP, swine flu, etc. Localized issues due to weather, civil issues (riot, summit meeting). The EMP scenario would be ugly...I wonder what the threat assessment from the 3 letter agencies is.
  19. mac66

    mac66 Huge Member
    Millennium Member

    In the threat/risk assessment business they have a little thing they use called a risk/threat assessment matrix. This matrix helps one figure out what the threats are and what to spend your time, energy and money on to protect or mitigate those threats. The determining factors are "Probability, Vulnerability, Criticality and Mitigation." Probability is frequency/likleyhood of occurrence. Vulnerability is how susceptible you are to a specific threat/risk. Criticality is what impact it will have on you and Mitigation is what countermeasures or things are in place to lessen the impact should it occur.

    One places numerical value on each from lowest to highest and then figures out a base value. Using the highest average value determines the priority one places on addressing the threat.

    For example, one calls the police department and finds out the biggest threat in ones neighborhood is the theft of lawn mowers from unsecured garages. So the person does a matrix and determines they yes it is very likely to happen since he has a lawnmower in an area where they are being stolen. He is vulnerable because he has an unsecured garage and it is critical because he cuts grass for a living. He does not have homeowners insurance so has nothing to mitigate his loss.

    So he goes on Glock Talk to find out what to do. Some people suggest a lawn mower rifle, while some suggest a shotgun. Others debate whether a 9mm or 45 is best for penetration. Eventually someone suggests that gangs of lawnmower thieves present a problem so you need a tier one AR with a mountain of ammo.

    Hey, don't have normalcy bias, it could happen.

    Some EMT guy suggests wearing soft body armor to bed with night vision goggles while mounting a flame thrower on a hot dog cart. :supergrin:

    That completely off topic debate swirls around in the bowl for a week or two before someone calls for a reality check. "Hey, just lock your garage" says he. Reality check boy is angrily denounced as buzz kill and party pooper and sheepishly slips away to watch from the side lines from now on.:whistling:
  20. ^ lol I have a been issued a few risk matrix templates from the .mil
    A 15 minute block of instruction would probably go a long way in helping folks make more sound decisions.

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