Why most Doomsday preppers will die

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by PaulMason, Sep 9, 2012.


  1. The city I grew up in (and used to work for) has long had plans on the books for setting up roadblocks, and demolishing bridges if need be, in the event new Detroit riots. This city also has it's own power and water. Since my parents still live there, it's our meet-up, alternative bug-in location.
     

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  2. Huge gangs of people will dominate the urban areas, but they aren't going searching for people off the beaten path. It wouldn't be profitable for them to search every back road, hiking trail, or mountain top. If you are some place most people wouldn't find passing through I think you will be OK.
     

  3. wjv

    wjv

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    As was pointed out in another thread - 3 days without food/water can limit a persons effectiveness when fighting.

    Odds are they will start looting locally, and take some hits from urban folks protecting their stuff. Then they will likely start fighting with other gangs, and then with each other.

    Although it could happen, I doubt that on day-one the gangs will load up the SUVs and start hitting the suburbs and rural areas. They will be in a "WTF?" mode for a few days just like everyone else.

    The police won't disappear overnight. It will be a diminishing presence over 3-10 days as things grow out of control and the police decide to call in "sick" and stay home to protect their families. It may be even longer if the NG is called out to assist the police for a while.

    By time the police and NG have disappeared, the people may have been without food for 4-7 days.
     
    #43 wjv, Sep 10, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  4. quake

    Millennium Member

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    Not quite, we're ~70 miles from a population center of ~195,000 (Little Rock); more like 250,000 population if you count both little rock and north little rock together. Nearest 4-lane highway afaik is ~40 miles or so, with the exception of one stretch closer that's temporarily four lanes winding around a mountain for a ways.

    Thirteen thousand people per square mile...? Oy. Our county has less than 50 people per square mile :)tongueout:); I used to live in Houston, but anymore I can't imagine 13,000 per square mile. But fact is, Arkansas as a whole only averages 56 per square mile state-wide, which includes the city population centers; so the rural areas are MUCH less densely populated.
     
  5. Our area's population is very similar to Quake's. As I mentioned, many of us have discussed possible scenarios with our neighbors, and we plan on protecting our families, homes, and community. I wonder about those critiquing me; do they even know their neighbors' names? And for what it's worth, we KNOW that there is greater strength in numbers, hence the folks all pulling together. You might be surprised just how fast a couple of farm tractors can put up a road-block, or build a protective berm. In the event of major problems, most of us have farm ponds with water to filter and fish to eat! And just about everybody has a garden of various sizes. We know that any type of governmental help will go to the large urban areas, or at least those with bigger populations. We WILL take care of our own; and I AM a VietNam Grunt veteran who still hunts!..:cool:
     
  6. I used to hunt ducks in your great state.......... DOC
     
  7. emt1581

    emt1581 Curious Member

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    Interesting point of view.

    As far as tiger pits and such.....I once dug a 4-5' deep hole and burried a garbage can in it to make a french drain of sorts. Took me quite a while and LOTS of energy.

    I'm not sure I'd do such a thing during/post SHTF.

    -Emt1581
     
  8. It's about the "time line". You have to be able to stay alive until society gells again, the crisis ends or enough of your buds conclude there's safety in numbers.

    Depending on the type of incident, you may indeed be able to fend off low level turds by mere brandishing with the wife and kids. As a crisis develops the risk vs. reward process comes into play...do the crooks think it's worth risking their lives? Initially they won't be aware of the fact that they are facing a few people willing to put up a defense. That will be the time you could get exploited...while you are just a gaggle.

    Most people don't have the wherewithal to pull off squad level infantry tactics...they lack the will, equip, training, and will not want to do harm. If you can rally a few folks, great, but most families will have kids, elderly, slacker, etc.
     
  9. Mr Spock

    Mr Spock Vulcan

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    You don't need a big pit. You just need to know where to put it. For instance, if you have a natural point of approach, narrow the path with "natural" items - move a fallen tree, or push a dead car to create choke points that don't LOOK like choke points. Once you know where you want it, put a 12" deep drop to barbed spikes dipped in something nasty. It disables 1 of the crew, and the psychological effect on the rest should make them more concerned about where they are putting their feet than what is further in front of them.

    Obviously that was just one of several ideas, so that sort of trap may not be for everyone's specific defense strategy.

    The point is, if we are talking about defense once civilization, law, and order have left the building, why should the defense strategies be limited to what is currently allowed by civilization, law, and order? If the roving gangs lose 1-5 members before they ever see you and before they even know which house is responsible for the traps, they'll probably end up looking elsewhere for an easier target.

    Simply put, defense against superior numbers in that situation should include whatever it takes. I think that is the key component missing in the discussion, which is why it ends up as "you're dead" as the only answer. You're not dead if their resolve to even find you breaks before the fight starts. And if it starts, they'll sure get a screwed up idea of your numbers if a few shotgun shell traps go off around the perimiter.

    ETA: Obviously this discussion involves a "What If" that takes place in the absence of a government and legal structure. I am in no way recommending that someone resort to illegal tactics in any form while there is even the slightest chance that the government will survive in this scenario.
     
    #49 Mr Spock, Sep 10, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012

  10. My post was not specifically directed at you but in general, save that one point.


    Anytime a person uses the term "fortified position" it makes me laugh because A.) 99% of people, including preppers, do not have or understand what a true fortified position is, and B.) Have no means, and C.) generally no idea at how to defend such a position, even if they were to acquire one.


    But my point, and intention was not to call you out, and I'm sorry if you took it that way.
     
  11. While thats a fine plan and all on paper, its the execution of it that fails.

    Are YOU going to torture someone? I mean, yeah we're on the internet, everyone is tough. But even with my multiple combat tours, and 10+ years in the .mil, while I can honestly say the concept of killing is not something I'm foreign to. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to torture someone. Unless they've pushed me far beyond my breaking point (ala law abiding citizen)

    Even if you think you're bad enough to torture someone. I think when the time comes down to it, and that hot blood is on your hands, you might choose otherwise.



    Secondly, think of your repercussions. (speaking hypothetically here) If you catch one or two of my raiders, saw we wounded a few of yours, and were pushed back, and then I hear you're torturing my guys, what do you think thats going to do to your outcome? Do you really think they're going to turn around and just leave you?

    Do you have any idea how easy it would be to post a few guys, and send the rest of the group elsewhere and just keep you penned up till you either run out of food/water/supplies, or we've picked you off?

    Are you honestly prepared to condem your wife/kids/family/friends to rape/mutilation/torture, because you tried to scare off some people? And on that note, think about how thats going to affect your relationship with the people in your area. Word will get out.. Most people take a dim view of torture, no matter which side you're on. The next time you have a disagreement with farmer brown down the street, he might just shoot you in the back, because he's afraid he's next.


    EMT, if your plan is to fight, its pretty simple. Plan to die.


    The reason that "not to be there" is such a common answer, is because its the RIGHT answer.

    As a single family group/unit even in a good numbered size, you simply can't hope to hold ground against a gang/.mil/.gov entity. They can pen you in, like Waco/Ruby Ridge/Every other hostage situation, and simply wait you out. It takes very, very few to hold you in, and they can resupply far easier than you.

    In reality, if you're planning on slugging it out/holding your turf, you need not only a established, adequate supply chain, but you need a force of dedicated shooters. Because you need the guys fighting to be free from any/all other dutys to be out actively persuing/forcing engagements away from your turf, and a supply chain allowing them to return re-arm/re-equip, and leave again.

    The number, is loosely based upon the .mil doctrine of the fire-team/squad. And as I referenced, was talking simply about pure shooters.

    If you've got that number of shooters, unless you're dealing with a whole crap ton of acreage, you're established well enough to be able to actually take/hold some ground. Without such a group, you're not going to be able to effectively do much, except defend your group in a pinch. But in doing so, pretty much curtails all other activity.


    IMO, "going gray" is a terrible misnomer, because there are an awful lot of people who think they're awfully slick and "gray" and stand out like a sore thumb. Just because people don't stop to talk to you, or give you funny looks that you caught, doesn't mean people didn't notice. Infact, once you know what to look for, its often not that hard to notice them, because they make themselves evident.
     
  12. It's ok, my man-feelings were hurt, but my 2 yo daughter came over and slapped me in the face and told me to butch up. After I finished crying I got over it. :)
     
  13. You guys really believe in all this Jericho prepping **** don't you? Crazy.
     
  14. emt1581

    emt1581 Curious Member

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    I like the second point...and it is a good one for good guys. Some bad guys with zero loyalty, even though they preach it, might cut and run....at least the ones I work with would. No one really tries to bust their friends/fellow-gang members out. No one even hangs around out front. And we are keeping them from their rap videos, drugs, and tacky clothing getups....that could be considered torture by some! But in all seriousness, I think your point is more valid for good guys with that emotional connection to their friends/family than thugs that have gathered together. Again, from what I've seen their loyalty only holds up until it impedes them in some way.

    As far as warm blood and having the ability to carry out such a task...I may have misinterpreted you but are you saying combat/mil. experience is needed to do such a thing? I look at WWII and the butchers that Hitler employed. A few were of rank but I wonder how many had that front-line true combat experience??

    I know I see people in agony and have that warm blood on my (gloved) hands pretty frequently. Doesn't really make me cringe or turn away...



    We prepare for every other possibility...why not this one?? Why get so excited to go belly up for such a situation and cling to the same defeatist perspective??

    Would a safe escape route help (ex. tunnel, zip line, etc)?

    You mentioned force multipliers...like what? I'm sure you're used to them on the military level but what about the civilian level?


    Thanks

    -Emt1581
     
  15. emt1581

    emt1581 Curious Member

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    Double Tap.

    -Emt1581
     
    #55 emt1581, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012
  16. Big difference between a roving group of wilding youths try to kick the door in or peer in your windows & being targeted for resources in some organized manner.

    When you are the target of sustained aggression, you get picked off...unless you have set-up like a FOB...which 99.9 do not.

    Attack to defend ratio: 3 to 1 for best success
    Ghetto attack: one bottle of gas and rag = homeless
     
  17. OK - I think we are talking about two different things. I was thinking of perimeter security/look outs.
     

  18. No, I meant, even as someone who's been around combat quite a bit, and have much exposure to, torturing someone is still not something I'm prepared to do.


    And I'm willing to be the majority of honest folk in the world, are not going to just throw themselves into.



    While as an EMT you may see people in pain, you're not directly causing all that pain and suffering. Thats a pretty large emotional step.
     
  19. quake

    Millennium Member

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    Down toward stuttgart probably..? I hunt, but never could get into duck hunting. (Or bird hunting or fishing - basically, I hunt mammals I guess.) But duck hunting seems the worst of all of them to me personally. Getting up before dawn? Sure, do it most days. But get up before dawn just to put on rubber pants and stand in cold water? Not for me at all.

    I always tell people that you can't say "duck hunting" without saying "duh". :supergrin:



    Again +1. One of my favorite lines in these discussions is that ALL shtf situations have one thing in common. Whether it's Katrina, an ice storm, the LA-King riots or even WW2, they have one common factor - they all ended at some point. That "some point" may be 72 hours or it may be 72 months; but it does eventually arrive. And when it arrives, we'll have to be ready to deal with the fallout of our actions taken in the interim. The authorities, our neighbors, and the man in the mirror all need to be able to believe that what we did during "that time" was right.

    There are some who say that education is the most powerful thing in the world and some who say that love is the most powerful. Personally, I've come to believe that regret may be the most powerful thing, and I've already got enough of that in my life. I suspect that anyone with decent character likely has more of it than they want.

    Would I do 'whatever' it took to protect my family? Sure. But that doesn't mean I have to look forward to it, or do it lightly.

    On the "which approach" question (fight, flight, etc), the best way to not get hit imo is to not be a target, at least not any more than can be avoided - you never lose a fight that you don't get into. I may or may not get shot by the guy shooting in my direction, but I absolutely WON'T get shot by someone who's NOT shooting in my direction.

    It's not practical or logical to think that we can guarantee we avoid all conflict - if it was, we could all sell our guns. But it's prudent & logical to do everything in our power to avoid as many as our conscience allows. If ethics, morality, or just lack of options, make a fight necessary, then by all means fight like a rabid dog on meth; but that's way down on my list as far as personal preferences.
     
  20. AK Stick said,

    'While thats a fine plan and all on paper, its the execution of it that fails.

    Are YOU going to torture someone? I mean, yeah we're on the internet, everyone is tough. But even with my multiple combat tours, and 10+ years in the .mil, while I can honestly say the concept of killing is not something I'm foreign to. I'm pretty sure I'm not going to torture someone. Unless they've pushed me far beyond my breaking point (ala law abiding citizen)

    Even if you think you're bad enough to torture someone. I think when the time comes down to it, and that hot blood is on your hands, you might choose otherwise.



    Secondly, think of your repercussions. (speaking hypothetically here) If you catch one or two of my raiders, saw we wounded a few of yours, and were pushed back, and then I hear you're torturing my guys, what do you think thats going to do to your outcome? Do you really think they're going to turn around and just leave you?

    Do you have any idea how easy it would be to post a few guys, and send the rest of the group elsewhere and just keep you penned up till you either run out of food/water/supplies, or we've picked you off?

    Are you honestly prepared to condem your wife/kids/family/friends to rape/mutilation/torture, because you tried to scare off some people? And on that note, think about how thats going to affect your relationship with the people in your area. Word will get out.. Most people take a dim view of torture, no matter which side you're on. The next time you have a disagreement with farmer brown down the street, he might just shoot you in the back, because he's afraid he's next."

    17's reply,

    I respect your opinion as a combat veteran, and I'm not saying that the scenerio I described is to be used as a first resort or something to be done for the sport of it but, I don't doubt that a gang of scavengers would do this and worse to someone's wife and children if they were taken. If we're talking about hypothetical situations and being prepared is the goal, I think it is best to consider as many situations as possible and not rule out ANY tool that someone can use in these situations. You asked if I could torture someone, well if that appeared to be the only tool I had left to keep my loved ones from being tortured, I believe I could.
     
    #60 17&27, Sep 11, 2012
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2012

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