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Why most Doomsday preppers will die

Discussion in 'Survival/Preparedness Forum' started by PaulMason, Sep 9, 2012.

  1. AK_Stick

    AK_Stick AAAMAD

    Jan 20, 2004
    Alaska, again (for now)

    You know what a fortified position really is?

    The place you die during a deliberate attack.

    I mean, just look at the stunning success that was the maginot line.

    While fortifying your house/property has some value against raiders who have given little though to it, and mostly are striking solely on a whim, if they take even a small amount of time to plan it out, and have a modicum of common sense, your chances are virtually nil to live through the engagement.

    Unless you've got a good network of people, and I'm talking 8-15 able bodied shooters, you're not really going to hold off much of anything. And by shooters, I don't mean your wife and kids who you gave a gun to in a pinch. I mean people who know how to fight a weapon.

    If the SHTF, you're not handing your kid/wife a PSL/Nagant/whatever rifle you want, and honestly going to see them be an effective shooter. What you're handing them is a death sentence.


    Sep 30, 2010
    PHX AZ
    Tagged for later viewing

  3. Did you read my point #1? You need a group, no question. I call 8-15 a good start. I would really like to have a lot more that that.

    I agree (as I said in my above post above,) trying to Lone Wolf it is a non-starter. Why are you busting my balls for agreeing with you?

    To your other point, most urban gang members do not have "a modicum of common sense." I see them every day at work. The vast majority are as dumb as a box of rocks.

    Dangerous, to be sure, but time and time again they fair poorly when they are out of their element and facing an armed opponent.

    And what makes you think my wife doesn't know how to fight?

    The Maginot Line was a failure of updating strategic and tactical thinking in the light of what was capable, offensively, with new technology. Thus, we take maneuver warfare for granted now and no modern army is comfortable defending a fixed position with no counter-strike force. Of course, the French didn't seem to learn that particular lesson (re: Dien-Bien-Phu.)

    I think part of the necessity having a large enough group is in having the man power to counter attack. Medieval castles had sally-ports, for instance. By our nature, preppers are going to be tied to a location. Even an underground bunker will be given away in a long term Fall by it's cultivated crops. You need enough people to patrol and react to aggression.
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  4. Tom Kanik

    Tom Kanik

    Sep 6, 2005
    S.W. Missouri
    I feel sorry for the folks living in big cities, as the government can't control gangs now, let alone when SHTF. Groups like the Latin Kings, Black Panthers, and so many others have a LOT of good weapons now, as well as vehicles to expand their activities. And they don't play by any rules! Cities will be hit hard first, but the turmoil will spread out to the suburban, then rural areas.
    I discussed this with a former Sheriff some years ago, and he stated flat out that we in the rural areas had better be ready to handle problems ourselves. There is just not enough manpower to cover the distances in rural areas; 22 miles from my house to the Sheriff's office. I have discussed this with some of my "neighbors" - a mile either direction. Because we live on high ground, teams of guys with their deer rifles and a few semi-autos will have posts at roads approaching our area, with others on ready stand-by. Just about everyone has radios for communication and re-supply. I would hope that we will not have a situation as portrayed in "Alas Babylon" or "One Second After", but it's better to hope for the best while preparing for the worst.
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  5. TangoFoxtrot

    TangoFoxtrot OIF 04-05

    Sep 10, 2008
    Nowhereville, USA
    I gave guys like that ZERO credibility!
  6. emt1581

    emt1581 Curious Member

    Oct 17, 2002
    Penn's Woods
    I'm taking it that the first rule of prep-club is we DO talk about prep-club in order to prepare a plan with others on defending against a large group/gang during/post shtf...yes?

    If that is the case, trusted family in other states wouldn't seem to be the most effective ones to have a plan with unless your plan is to get to each other's location, if possible, prior to the SHTF (ex. hurricane, blizzard, etc)

    Instead it'd be to develop something with capable neighbors or co-workers as these are the same people that will be near when the balloon goes up, at least for me. I can't say I'm comfortable with either group but especially the ones at work that are not survival/prepper minded in the least!

  7. emt1581

    emt1581 Curious Member

    Oct 17, 2002
    Penn's Woods
    I see what you are saying about a plan but it seems like most of your plan deals with acknowledging the routes of escape and/or

    What about staying hidden or attacking/defending?

    Or is the plan still going to be to just "not be there" as is the common cop-out with most S&P threads that deal with gang/gov. forces?

    Mind you I'm not being sarcastic or poking fun at you but that really is what most say. And sometimes you just can't avoid the fight or stay well hidden.

    AK talked about a force multiplier. I think an AR vs. a lowly bolt .22lr MIGHT be an example. But for the average nuclear family, what would be others?


  8. Everyone dies.

    In a shtf, some will die better than others. Depending on the shtf type, many won't make it through the event anyways. It's a crap shoot. Buddy of mine who is well prepared, but lives in the real world, goes on two cruises a year. We both laugh about the odds that for all his training and gear etc, he will be on the beach in the Caribbean when it happens..

    My wife is important to me in many many ways, including her membership in our local MAG, but she travels a LOT for work. It's highly possible she will be +1000km away or more when it happens. We have talked about what to do, but the variables are so huge, no way to make a real plan, just have a general plan, and improvise as needed.


    BTW, if it comes down to roving gangs ala "The Road" or "Mad Max", only those with the "mindset" and "ability" to do the things "necessary" to survive.. will.

    I do not believe I am one of those. I do not think I will throw away my morals or beliefs to survive, and if that means I don't "win" by someone elses definition, so be it. Can I defend whats mine? yes. Can I kill? yes. Will I go rogue to survive? No.
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  9. bdcochran


    Sep 23, 2005
    Los Angeles
    It would be interesting to learn how many of the "rural" people on this forum are more than 100 miles from a population center of 100,000 and more than 10 miles from a national or state highway of 4 lanes or more total.


    Most people drive their cars around on near empty. When shtf, there will still be some people with 5 gallons of gas in the tank - enough to go 100 miles.

    Most people are lazy or physically in bad shape. They don't exercise. However, I would let some of those 100,000 who had the 5 gallons of gasoline go the 100 miles and then have to walk the last 10 miles on paved road. Notice that I didn't make any reference to dirt roads, snow, ice, local blockades. And, I will grant you that if a lot of people tried to walk 10 miles on a paved road with no water, most would not be able to walk it.

    The problems of the rural people are quite simple:
    1. the people coming to their area are not the poor urban who ride buses;
    2. the people coming to their area are suburbanites who have the money and as a consequence have weapons, perhaps a background in scouting and may have served in the military. This, of course, would not apply to poor urban youth.:whistling:
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  10. PaulMason


    Feb 10, 2010
    There is a wide spread of people 8 - 15 and the size of what you are defending is important. You have to think in terms of shifts, area of coverage and reaction time.

    If you just assume covering 4 directions/field of view with 8 people you would have to have 4 on and 4 off over 24 hours - maybe 2 - 12 hour shifts/day. And those on duty would have to have good communications with each other and the base. Not much of any other outside would would get done unless there were others at base.

    My point is just throwing out a number of people does not say much about the situation.

    Personally, I think going 'gray' gives those going alone the best chance.
  11. PaulMason


    Feb 10, 2010
    I agree. And there are gangs and unprepared people in the rural areas also. Troubles might take a bit longer time to get there.
    The guy in the video says he lives in a rural area.
  12. If you gave away your state of readiness then you already lost the initiative.
  13. Not quite 100 miles from 100k population center, but it's mostly

    and 15 miles from the closest "4 lane". And in fact, our road doesn't show on many maps, although it does show on googlemaps, but I am going to guess the interwebs will be nonfunctional post shtf.
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  14. mac66

    mac66 Huge Member Millennium Member

    Oct 28, 1999
    Blue Planet
    I think the videos make some good points. Yes, gangs will be a problem. I also think you have to look at the real world and see how things like that have been handled.

    During the LA riots Koreans banded together and kept the "gangs" at bay at least in their area.

    During Katrina, most people that stayed (didn't evacuate) banded together to protect their neighborhoods. This kept looter and gangs away. I think that most communities will band together at least initially.

    During the Detroit riots, surrounding communities set up road blocks and curfews to prevent gangs/looters from spilling into their communities. Containment will be one of the first things that happens. That can be by the police and/or physical barriers and/or national guard.

    Also the first things gangs are going to do is go on the defensive to protect their turf. Once they have security they go after easy targets. They will hit the stores first, the weak and elderly second and their own neighborhoods. It will only be until they expend the resources in their own areas will they start roaming looking for targets of opportunity. They will not be likely to want fight on unfamiliar ground. Remember too that they have to protect their turf from other gangs as well.

    Of course this presupposes a scenario of total governmental breakdown which is not likely to happen. Even if the feds breaks down their will still be state, regional, county, and local control. I served on a regional emergency management board before I retired. There are pretty thorough emergency plans in place in most areas.

    Also from personal/community defensive standpoint you want to set up concentric rings of defense. Protect the area first by defending the main routes of access and egress. Protect the community next, then the subdivision, then block by block, then house by house. Nobody but a well disciplined, trained military force with a lot of people is going to be able to breach all the defenses without terrible casualties.
  15. Mr Spock

    Mr Spock Vulcan

    Jan 6, 2008
    One thing people often overlook is the idea that if the law enforcement infrastructure crumbles with the government, the individual's options for perimeter defense expand greatly. Laws and civilization are what prevent us from putting in punji sticks, shotgun shell traps, homemade mines, etc. around a home/bunker. If there is no more civilization (but not before that point, since you do your family no good if you're in jail for something stupid when TSHTF), these options would be on the table.

    I think that a comprehensive plan with perimeter surveillance, alarms, and traps/mines would serve to alert you to the presence of a gang and sufficiently disrupt their attack/thin their numbers/cause general chaos to give the defender the edge.

    We need to think outside the box - for an audible alert, there are DIY door alarms that you can put onto a door and frame so that when the door is opened it starts screaming. Place these two contacts together, put a trip wire hooked to one, and when they separate, you have a siren pointing out the location of the breach. Couple this with a solar power source (the yard lights you stake into the ground with the small solar cell on top could be wired to the alarm instead of the light) and you'd have an indefinite lifespan for the device.
  16. 17&27


    Feb 19, 2012
    I wonder what Homeboy would do if say, on the initial assault of the preppers compound, a couple of his buddies were wounded and recovered by the preppers.
    I would imagine that listening to your buddies scream while being skinned alive and disected slowly over 3 or 4 days could be pretty demoralizing. Preppers dogs and pigs have to eat too.
    If met with a superior force you may have to make them believe that you are more savage, cold blooded and sociopathic than they could ever hope to be. They have to believe the risk is not worth the reward.
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  17. PaulMason


    Feb 10, 2010
    I think the point he made in the video is that you will have to teach that lesson over and over again and all that time you will be loosing people and supplies.

    I think he also made the point that he would send non threatening people to you to find out what resources you have. And, if I were a gang leader, I wouldn't send people I cared about on the front lines.
  18. 17&27


    Feb 19, 2012

    It's not so much about demoralizing the leaders as it is demoralizing the ones he wants to send up front. Regardless, people will have to utilize everything at their disposal to prevent being overtaken. Make them believe there are easier targets out there. I live in a rural area with plenty of farmers and ranchers. Sending RayRay, Peanut and the boys out to run over them may not be as easy as he thinks.
    Last edited: Sep 10, 2012
  19. OctoberRust

    OctoberRust Anti-Federalist

    Jun 15, 2011
  20. scccdoc


    Dec 28, 2011
    Like many here , I have survived a natural disaster (Hurricane Hugo). Through ingenuity, my family and a few others never went hungry. I learned a BIG lesson, this time I WILL BE PREPARED. To the OP, your "gang" will be scavengers looking for innocent people to prey upon, it won't be me without you paying a hefty price............... end of story............... DOC