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Why everything is gone

Discussion in 'Black Rifle Forum' started by DAIadvisor, Jan 29, 2013.

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  1. DAIadvisor


    Apr 24, 2004
    Kettering, OH
    So I've been thinking about the reasons why everyone is out of stock on everything.. Here's my explanation.

    Reason 1: There was never that much available in the first place. I mean not every day someone goes out and drops 1k + on a EBR or related components. Sometimes there's a waiting list to get your stuff even without the madness that ensued after Sandy Hook. I mean yes, there is a reasonable amount of rifles out there for normal sales, but if panic hits, everything dries up and it takes time to spin up production.

    Reason 2: With prices artificially inflated, there's no real reason for manufacturers to increase production. If I can sell a lower for 300 vs. 85, why would I ever make more than I need to maintain that profit margin?

  2. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

    Jan 16, 2005
    There was plenty on the shelves and people bought it all faster than the the manufacturers and distributors could replace it, simple as that. I wasn't aware there was anybody who didn't already know that, but it doesn't require any complex explanation - even places as filled with AR's and such as Bud's sold out.

  3. So you don't think it has anything to do with millions of buyers who normally wouldn't be buying, coming out of the woodwork, and buying everything they could ever imagine wanting or needing? And other millions of existing shooters, who decided to go on and pull the trigger on their wishlist of ammo, parts, and guns?

    Interesting perspective.
  4. waawaaweenie


    Feb 6, 2012
    middle of PRK
    if every new gun buyer just wants to go shoot their brand new gun, they buy 2 boxes of ammo and presto, we have a run on ammo

    they say the NICS doubled last year so the ammo and gun manufacturers got caught flatfooted.

    and I believe they are running as fast as they can to resupply but now the citizens hear about the ammo shortage so they go buy all that is on the shelves so the cycle continues.

    I don't think the factories are likely to do much expanding of production until they see how the law situation shakes out plus the 0bamma care coming this year
  5. stooxie

    stooxie NRA Life Member

    Apr 10, 2005
    Northern Virginia
    I find 100X the demand to be the simpler and more plausible explanation. With the exception of those who are convinced this will all blow over in a few months (Obama and Feinstein must be stepping down at that time), everyone else is buying everything they can.

    My guess is that things will be like this for a good 2-3 years, it not more, simply because even if, legislatively, nothing much happens, people won't want to be caught with their pants down again. So the stocking up will continue for a long time.

    It's funny, I was just thinking a couple months ago, "Gee, everyone and his brother has got cases of Federal XM193 and XM855 on sale, maybe I should pick up some more." I didn't because I barely have any more room for it.

    Yep, kicking myself now...

    People are going to start stocking things they never did before. I bet you money that people will now have 5-10 stripped lowers on hand. For $89-$110, why not? Lower parts kits are the new currency.

    I don't see this slowing down any time soon. Current back orders are out a year, then once prices start to relax there will be another run, the cycle will repeat.

    Madness? Hysteria? Panic? Call it what you will, but it's here for the foreseeable future.

  6. kahrguy


    Sep 3, 2004
    I been calling several dealers and they tell me they can’t get supply from the factories
    I think they holding back on new shipments. The dealers been out of guns for over a month
  7. M&P15T

    M&P15T Beard One

    Apr 7, 2011
    Arlington, VA.
    You believe that "the factories" are deliberately not shipping products?

    Because why?

    You do know that there are distributors involved, right?
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2013
  8. DustyJacket

    DustyJacket Directiv 10-289

    Oct 16, 2008
    Missouri, East of KC
    J frames have been hard for my local stores to get for about a year.
  9. fuzzy03cls


    Jan 28, 2010
    There's ONLY ONE REASON......PANIC.
  10. SCSU74

    SCSU74 St. Cloud Proud

    Jul 24, 2010
    The Northwoods
    Orrrr a bunch of people living in moms basement with money to burn and watching too much doomsday preppers freaked out and bought anything/everything firearm related for no other reason than panic

    Posted using Outdoor Hub Campfire
  11. I don't believe that either. Times have changed and I doubt that any factory builds anything that's not ordered (and subsequently paid for) by a distributor.

    BTW, most of the price gouging is done by the dealers, not the manufacturers (who stand to gain nothing by slowing down deliveries).
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2013
  12. G-nineteen


    Feb 12, 2009
    Economics 101
    page 1
    Supply & Demand
  13. On one hand I hate the fact that I cant build another one if I wanted, on the other I'm happy to see AR's in more peoples hands. Even if they just are panic buying and keeping them in the box or a safe. Now all these panic buyers need to step up and join the NRA and start contacting all their elected officials.
    Last edited: Jan 29, 2013
  14. Cole125

    Cole125 Silver Member

    Apr 5, 2008
    Far West, USA
    I have been wondering the same thing. With all the AR15 companies out there, why is it taking them so long to get more product out the door?
  15. stooxie

    stooxie NRA Life Member

    Apr 10, 2005
    Northern Virginia
    Who says they aren't? I had some stuff on back order that showed up within a couple weeks. I am expecting the rest to show up in the next few. I think we just don't see the ramp up because the retailers are just fulfilling back orders.

    Another way to ask that question is when might things start to be in stock again. I predict we are a long time away from that.

    The simple fact is that very few people seem to share the confidence that "nothing" is going to happen. Will be interesting to see who is right.

  16. mc1911


    Nov 25, 2011
    They have the right idea. Skip an accessory and join the NRA.
    Contact our government officials. Join the pro 2nd amendment struggle.
  17. High Altitude

    High Altitude

    Nov 19, 2005
    This is going to go on for awhile. I don't see it ending any time soon. It is much worse this time around.

    People aren't going to stop buying until they have a closet full of ammo, mags and anything else that might be banned in the future.
  18. M&P15T

    M&P15T Beard One

    Apr 7, 2011
    Arlington, VA.
    When demand raises by1000%, manufacturers and their sub-contractors have a difficult decision to make. They can hire more people temporarily, and then be forced to lay them off later, to meet demand.

    Or, they can stick with the work-force they have, and produce what they can.

    But there are more variables.

    Manufacturing (assembling) ARs takes some training and experience. It takes time to get new employees up and running. Also, the manufacturers are at the mercy of their sub-contractors, who face exactly the same dilema about hiring new employees.

    And when we're talking about things like lowers, there really isn't very many manufacturers of them. There's a few companies that make the same parts for many, many AR producers with names we're familiar with.
  19. collim1

    collim1 Shower Time!

    Mar 14, 2005
    Lots of people dragging their feet on a purchase they wanted. Lots of people with a few guns on the list and had been putting it off until someone tells them they may not be able to own it a year from now.
  20. pnutcar

    pnutcar MIZZOU TIGERS!

    Mar 5, 2011
    St. Louis, MO
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