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What is a high margin high risk biz?

Discussion in 'Business Forum' started by geminicricket, Aug 24, 2006.

  1. geminicricket

    geminicricket NRA Life member

    Apr 26, 2001
    Lewisville, TX USA
    Besides trading commodities futures?

    My willingness to get back into this game after having gotten creamed in my first effort indicates a pathology.:freak:
  2. Importing and distributing refined coca product while exporting cash. Margins in proportion to risk.

  3. geminicricket

    geminicricket NRA Life member

    Apr 26, 2001
    Lewisville, TX USA
    It could be a mild case of ruin, or it could be a success.

    At least, the trading account will be funded. The advisor says, "It's day trading, not trading every day."

    If it succeeds, good. If it does not, a mild case of ruin. Either way, I hope soon to be able to sleep more than 4 hours a night. The suspense is literally killing me.

    The suspense is over. The advisor also said, "Expect losses early on." So, one trade in seven market days, and 15% lost. I've slept better lately.
    The advisor took a short position on the e-mini on 9/11, and has been holding it.
    9/21, still holding the short position. Today the S&P500 closed down 7.15. I'm not happy yet. I still need about 20 points more down just to be even in this position. All my equity positions are not happy with my futures position. At least, the futures position gains faster than the equities position loses. Leverage will do that.
    It's 9/27, I may be out of money. I've quit looking. If they want to make a margin call, they will. I'll tell them to beat sand and I won't bohica. Right yet.
    Today, it is 9/28. The advisor finally gave up on the short of the
    e-mini. For 17 days he resolutely held a position squarely against the established trend. That's not much of a recommendation. Total loss was almost 38% of my stake. The next trade was a round-trip that finished inside the day and made a little of it back.
    Tonight, I'm out. I'm so non-exposed to further losses for a few hours that I may be unable to sleep.
    What the hell is an IMM ECU? Whatever it is, he made $525 trading it on Friday the 10/6th. He's made back about $2000 of what he lost on that stupid stunt. Still down over 30%.
    Today is 10/9, the IMM ECU is "International Monetary Market European Currency Unit" When the CBOT began trading the ECU in 1986 it was a basket of currencies from European countries. It still is, but with the creation of the Euro, the population in the basket is much smaller. It has the Euro, the British Pound, and at least, perhaps at most, one other currency. I think the Denmark Kroner still exists.
    He's got me long on the IMM ECU. The position is open overnight, but this is one trend that he on the correct side of.
    Today is 10/11. Did I really say that? The movement of the IMM ECU has been against me for two days. It's starting to look like the 9/11 e-mini position he took, which was proven wrong day after losing day until after the accumulation of several thousands of dollars of losses he closed the position and delivered two days of a few hundred dollars's gain each. Four digit losses on losing days, three digit gains on winning days.
    Next time I say anything about investing and trading, remind me that I'm an idiot.
    Today is 10/19. Well, well, the $30K put in got down to $17K, and now is up to $20K. It's lost money, for sure, but some of it came back.
    The IMM ECU position was closed out today with an actual gain.
    I know it's not really appropriate, but :banana:
    Today is 10/28. An overnight position in Dec Gold, taken on Thursday, also produced a gain when sold on Friday. It's over $22K now.
    Today is 11/12. The advisor gave up on Friday after huge losses on Wednesday and Thursday. His highly automated trading program had returned 45% in gains from January to August, but had lost nearly 60% since September. I'll bail out, take my haircut, and leave. On the bright side, there's enough left to pay off the notes on 3 of my debts,
    and I'll do that next month.

    Today is Feb 28. I didn't pay off the notes on the 3 debts.
    I left the money in the checking account and paid minimums.
    So, I gets a call a few weeks ago from some guy who says he heard I wanted to trade. I hung up. A few days ago I got another call with the same pitch, I brusquelly hung up with brief commentary. Today, I got another call with the same sales pitch and ... listened.

    The 40% which survived last year's effort will be sacrificed to this year's effort. This one is a heuristic 100% non-human black box which may and probably will not do anything even resembling what it says it will, but at least the price of the black box is guaranteed for a refund if I wise up in 6 months.

    Today is March 9. That trading system lost a few hundred $ in each of January and February. 2/28 was a bad day, having lost $550 on the S&P500 e-mini. It did not trade any day since then until today, when it profited $300. I have not yet funded my trading account, because I just don't want to until later this month. The system has been trading live money for 26 months, and the first 2 months of this year were the first time that it has lost money in two consecutive months. Maybe it will continue to work well after I join.

    money in on 3/13. trade on 3/14. positive results.
    It's 3/20 now. Trades on 3/15, 3/16, and 3/19 lost.
    Account is dwindling. Boo hoo.
    It's 3/27 A trade on Monday won a bit. So far, it's lost a big chunk of the cushion I put in to meet the unfortunate possibility of a drawdown at the beginning.
    It's 3/29 Recording a thought here. The list of transactions by the seller of the program indicates that after 10 trades the program has produced a profit of $100.
    The actual case in my account includes commissions and "slippage", which is market movement between the generation of the signal to trade from the program and the execution of the trade by the broker, and has lost $811. Eight of the slippages moved against me, one moved in my favor, one is not yet known.
    this week has, so far, seen 2 3-digit wins and one 2-digit loss.
    It's 4/8 In the past week, there were 4 trades. 2 in my favor, 2 against. For the first time, the slippage in the week was also in my favor. All in all, it was a week similar to what the sales pitch had led me to expect. Some wins, some losses, some slippage. Wins better than losses mostly. I've slept well 2 nights in a row.
    Today is 4/18. Previous week, one trade only, lost some.
    So far this week, 2 trades, both wins with positive slippage. The program is offered by a company which tracks performance on a password-protected web site. One chart tracks the progress of 2 contracts traded hypothetically for 4 years. Each time the chart make a new high, a green dot is placed on the line. The line was attractive when I started the program because it was mostly green dots on a 60 degree slope. I've been trading in this program for a solid month and Tuesday's chart entry is the first one during my participation with a green dot. The draw-down was worse in reality, as my average slippage is -$29. Add that to the commission and fees cost of -$31 and this starts looking like fool's gold. The chart doesn't include slippage and commissions. Consequently, my account value is about -$425 from where I started. Another chart lists weekly over/under water trends. This is likewise the first week since I've been involved that the weekly total is (so far) above water. Ditto the chart showing monthly over/under water trends.
    There was no action in the remainder of April, so the month was a gain.
    Here It is at the beginning of June. The month of may was a loss, with my education being complete.
    That means that I have told the broker to stop trading, which is synonymous with "stop losing my money, you snake".

    They should send what's left of the money to me, and I'll send it to a bank in Washington state to reduce the balance on the new roof.

    It's not well, but it's ended.


    It is well and truly thoroughly ended.
    The warranty period on the performance of the program has ended,
    and the performance has been positive.
    Participation was negative, and would have lost several thousand dollars if I'd stayed in. The load of costs on trades was so high
    that the few hundred dollars performance gain was overwhelmed by
    transaction fees.