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Discussion in 'Cop Talk' started by RussP, Feb 7, 2013.
It is California...
I have a feeling he's a long term strategic thinker. I don't see the brains escaping when crazy moved in. He has seemed to be pretty methodical so far. He's already winning if you step back and look at it. He's ambushed officers twice (targets of opportunity) and he's gotten the police to shoot at 2 different innocent people because they drive the same vehicle.
I see the burning truck as a decoy and he's either holed up in the mountains waiting to spring his trap or he's nowhere near that area. This could be a long term fiasco unless LAPD et al have a lot more info they aren't sharing (which I'm sure is true).
The really scary part is, this is just one guy. What happens if there were 100 or a 1000 of them.
Yep. Things not in his favor is that his face and distinctive appearance have been plastered everywhere, and where he wants all this to happen is very population dense with alot of very nervous people with cell phones spring-loaded to 911. If he's not still in big Bear undoubtedly he has another vehicle which will turn up missing from its owner (& be known to LE) if it hasn't already. And at some point he'll have to eat, sleep, poop & he'll run out of gas & money (the timing of which probably depends on his planning - his credit cards apparently have already been killed).
He's been mad about this for a long time, so likely he's been ruminating on it and done alot of planning. I am hoping that LE has alot more information than what's getting out to the public - if so good on 'em for keeping it inside.
On the other hand, one of the Big Bear residents was quoted as saying over morning coffee "no problem - I see him, I shoot him. We take care of ourselves up here"
Prayers & best wishes for safety of all involved
Yeah, the umbrella in the snow came off a bit fey. All the deputies I worked with durring a flood, knocking on doors and encouraging people to evacuate had yellow rain jackets. We had the green ones. This is the first time I have ever seen a Sheriff or Deputy bust out the umbrella. But, as someone pointed out, it is "California". So,
I just hope they run this bastard shooter to ground and put him in the ground.
They would be easier for us to find and deal with.
One other factoid - his burned out truck had a broken axle. Maybe that was a diversion, but I doubt he could have broken the axle on purpose - which means he would have had at least one major disruption of his plans. If that's how it went down, they might find him when the snow melts.
Interesting psychological profile. It screams out he would have fit right in on the internet... give himself a LE themed handle and avatar, then spew his schtick.
Interesting. How was the axle broken? And could it have broke as a result of the fire?
I doubt it was broken from the fire. After a vehicle fire, most of the metal components are left intact. I've seen semi tractors burn and be back in service after replacing the rubber and plastic bits.
Ummm... no, don't watch or listen to any of those shows. I just figured that is the plan with my rudimentary understanding of tactics and strategy. Then again, what do I know? Oh wait... others here also agree.
The women were driving a medium metallic blue Toyota Tacoma, not a Nissan Titan. The Tacoma is a smaller truck and the brilliant blue is nothing close to grey. Another truck got shot up when the police thought Dorner was inside, which was the grey Honda Ridgeline. Nobody got hit in that incident. He's got everyone so wound up, this unfortunate incident happened. The city will pay big on that one.
That is an interesting turn alright. If it wasn't deliberate it is going to mess with his plan and psychologically throw him a curve. It takes a good deal of the control out of his hands and he apparently doesn't perform well when he isn't totally in control
This is not where I originally saw it, but this report from CBS news also reports the broken axle and some other information that suggests that maybe his plans were disrupted & he had to take off on foot. If he wasn't prepared to be on foot in the (apparently worse than usual) cold & snow, he may be done sooner rather than later.
The contents of the burned truck could yield a lot of good info.
Unless he went to Ranger school or some other special training, most Military Officers are not well trained on the ground, they just have book smarts. Police training can be an aide, but not ever patrol officer knows about investigations.
He will need money and/or good friends to make it more than a month or two, unless he goes to Mexico and works for drug dealers...
While the situation is messed up, he will be more in survival mode than hunting mode. Thats a good thing.
His military service was a little fragmented. Reportedly, he is a Navy OCS grad & was a flight student (at least part of his training at Vance AFB) and didn't complete flight training for some reason. Probably redesignated to something as a reserve officer after flight school attrite. Of course the news reports were that he did a deployment in the gulf with a harbor security unit, the uniform he wore in his pre-deployment photo with the (then) LAPD Chief was that of a LT (O-3) but no warfare designator - which would be expected if he redesignated after an aviation attrite & had only reserve time. His departure from the Navy Reserve on 1 Feb apparently was a result of his failure to select for LCDR twice.
So while he obviously has police and some military training, it's not like he is a Ranger, Special Forces, PJ, SEAL, Recon, etc. But still very dangerous - mad, thinking crazy & hauling a bunch o'guns.
(source - various news sources and a military message board I am on)
I hope I'm not right but I think this guy has a long term plan.
I think he is going to stay in the shadows until these LAPD officers lose a bit of vigilance. Good officers are of course always vigilant, but I'm sure they are VERY vigilant maybe even paranoid at the current moment and they cant be blamed for that of course. Once some of that vigilance and paranoia goes away he is going to strike again. I'm sure he knows the spots officers like to sit in and write reports/eat/chat/surf the web etc. I bet he is going to find one of these officers parked somewhere and open fire on them from a distance with a rifle. I bet he can get away with this a few times before he gets caught or killed.
Reference all of these specific names on his hit list, how long can the LAPD afford overtime to keep these people protected?
Anyways I really hope I'm not right. I hope they find him soon. I cant imagine being an LAPD officer right now. My heart would be beating out of my chest my entire shift.
Also I apologize for my terrible writing, I just downed some cough syrup.
Be safe guys.
The other sad thing is how much support he has from the idiots in various parts of SoCal who sympathize with his "war" on the unjust system. He most likely now has a network of places and people he can use to hide and extend his time tables.
What you need to do is put a big bounty on his head. Thieves have no honor and those who would have supported him also would turn him in for a handsome reward without thinking about it.
Yeah I am rather disturbed by all the support I see for him on the internet. People saying he is just a whistle blower or saying he is a hero. Heros and whistle blowers don't gun down people just because they are related to someone.
A man identifying himself as Christopher Dorner taunted the father of<<<---News story linked.
I would bet the News Media will stay with this story, publishing any shred of News until something larger happens.
Or the suspect is caught or killed. Capture will open up new opportunities for the media to feed off the new developments.
Having finally read the manafesto, I have come to a couple of conclusions. I do not think that the entire document that I viewed was all written by the same person. There was stylistic and grammatical differences in several sections. I also think that this person will probably not kill a large number of people. I also do not think he is going to kill anyone's kids. I think he is acheiving just what he want to: Fear. I think he wants as many cops in LALA land to be cowering in fear as possible. He wants them to think that he is coming for them all and their families. He will pop up again in a bit and kill another person or two, to keep this going, but I don't think you will see the all out war on the blue that he promises. He is sitting somewhere comfortable right now monitoring all of this. It wouldnt suprised me if he is reading this thread on GT. I think his "asymetrical war" will mostly be a psychological one. I could be wrong.
I also suspect that, as was posted by another member, that there will be a number of LEO's shot by others on the street with the intention of making it look like it was done by this guy. He may have even thought about that.