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The 'Bread And Peace Model' Says Obama Is Toast In November

Discussion in 'Political Issues' started by JBnTX, Aug 19, 2012.

  1. JBnTX

    JBnTX Texas

    19,751
    3,834
    Aug 28, 2008
    Texas
    We can only hope!


    http://www.businessinsider.com/the-bread-and-peace-model-says-obama-is-toast-in-november-2012-8


    'The Bread and Peace model is perhaps the most successful long term presidential model in United States electoral history."

    "The model is derived explicitly from fundamentals only. It doesn't bother with the polling, and it doesn't focus on anything besides Real Personal Income Growth, an economic metric, and the number of American casualties in foreign wars."

    "We ran it with the latest data, and it says that Obama is set to get only 47.2 percent of the popular vote in November."

     
  2. Bruce H

    Bruce H

    3,842
    356
    Dec 5, 2000
    missouri

    That is 47% more than he should get.
     


  3. Cavalry Doc

    Cavalry Doc MAJ (USA Ret.)

    34,969
    9
    Feb 22, 2005
    Republic of Texas
    Trends are nice, but as is often said: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance.

    Every situation is unique.
     
  4. aircarver

    aircarver Ride Continues Silver Member

    That's a lot of people, bought and paid for ... :frown:

    .
     
  5. W420Hunter

    W420Hunter

    3,343
    13
    Jun 25, 2007
    Ohio
    Ok so here is the elephant in the room, 42% of the popular vote. As we saw with GW the guy with the popular vote does not always win.
     
  6. janice6

    janice6 Silver Member

    31,088
    11,690
    Apr 4, 2006
    minnesota
  7. GAFinch

    GAFinch

    5,912
    28
    Feb 23, 2009
    Georgia
    Don't get too excited, he could still boost lib voter turnout by suddenly evolving his position on weed.
     
  8. G29Reload

    G29Reload Tread Lightly

    13,286
    363
    Sep 28, 2009
    Really. We have THAT MANY stupid people in this country?

    I say he fails on the Marxist thug hi unemployment $4 gas model lying *****.
     
  9. Ruble Noon

    Ruble Noon "Cracker"

    11,018
    2
    Feb 18, 2009

    Weed, student loan debt forgiveness and home mortgage modification. Promise these three things and he wins.
     
  10. countrygun

    countrygun

    17,069
    17
    Mar 9, 2012

    As I recall, he hasn't "spent" all of "his" "stimulus money" yet. Watch for him to throw out a great bribe between the Republican Convention and the election.
     
  11. VinnieD

    VinnieD

    1,240
    45
    Mar 26, 2011
    Forget Bread and Peace, I think they're going for Bread and Circuses. It's been the Dem Strategy since Carter. Keep them fat, dumb, and distracted, and the fear of losing the easy life will keep the votes pouring in.
     
  12. Bren

    Bren NRA Life Member

    41,621
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    Jan 16, 2005
    Kentucky
    How many times has that model had to take into account a president elected almost entirely based on his race?

    Predictions are a lot harder for this one.
     
  13. JBnTX

    JBnTX Texas

    19,751
    3,834
    Aug 28, 2008
    Texas
    Low in this bunch, the confidence is.

    Every single post gives Obama the benefit of the doubt,
    and makes some excuse why Obama will pull a victory out of this election.

    Obama's going to lose, folks.
    You heard it here first.
     
  14. GAFinch

    GAFinch

    5,912
    28
    Feb 23, 2009
    Georgia
    If the election was held today, Romney would win. On paper, Romney should still win in November, especially with gas prices going back up. His opponent, though, is a lying pinko bastard. Don't get complacent. Hope for the best, plan for the worst.
     
  15. cowboy1964

    cowboy1964

    19,745
    2,154
    Sep 4, 2009
    U.S.A.
    47.2%? That tells me right there that the model isn't correct. It's going to be much closer than that.
     
  16. Overall popular vote doesn't matter.

    What matters is who wins certain states' electoral votes.

    51% in certain states plus 0% in the others will still beat 49% in those same states against 100% in all others.
     
  17. Happy Hunting

    Happy Hunting

    1,256
    1
    Jul 27, 2010
    DC
    Reading this I had an "Oh ****" epiphany.

    Most kids coming out of college are brainwashed by their professors and TV into voting for O anyway so I can hope that it won't make a difference as far as percentage of voters going that way. Hopefully he will announce it too late for Smoky McPots and the run of the mill Paulbot to leave the hot box and register to vote. Obama has nothing to lose by pushing for legalization, because opposed would greatly prefer Romney anyway.

    People forget that from '08-'10 Obama had the political market cornered and did nothing for gays, potheads, or kids with worthless college degrees. Nothing brings in votes like promising to absolve debts.

    He will treat the remaining stimulus money as a campaign war chest.
     
  18. GAFinch

    GAFinch

    5,912
    28
    Feb 23, 2009
    Georgia
    I recently spoke with a college kid who rather easily came out in favor of gun control for assault weapons despite his "libertarian" beliefs after the Aurora shooting. It was pretty obvious that his political beliefs consisted of some YouTube videos layered on top of his baseline liberal education/indoctrination.

    If you're missing any needed firearms, magazines, ammo, etc. go on a diet, skip the movies, and limit your driving for a bit. If you're planning out a home purchase, job change, or investment strategy, be cautious. Corporations and small businesses alike sure are being careful with their money right now and they're mostly run by smart, logical, level-headed people.
     
  19. SPIN2010

    SPIN2010 Searching ...

    1,781
    1
    Mar 14, 2010
    On the move ... again!
    Man is so odd.

    One day it is track record is everything, next day it is (see quote: Past performance is no guarantee of future performance).

    We are truly living in a time of confusion.